I move to table all politics discussions in this thread unless directly relevant to an investment topic. do I have someone to second the motion?
I'll just hit your up arrow.
Now what oil stocks look good this week ?
oil is interesting right? You aren't supposed to put money into something that is all over the news and is all people talk about. On the idea that the money was already made and now latecomers are driving prices too high.
But geez...there seems to be no relief on oil prices. There won't be much added refinery capacity in the US....oil companies don't want to spend billions to invest when they think the future is not as carbon-based. How is this going to end?
Maybe if Saudi gets something it wants and jacks up production? I dunno. Might not be too late to invest in oil. Although it's probably too late.
I got a $1500 rebate check for buying a PHEV. Normally I would invest the money but considering how crappy the market looks, would you recommend paying down the car loan (1.24%) or mortgage (2.875%)? My Ally savings account only pays 0.75%.
Spike in mortgage rates driving weaker sentiment related to housing … buying conditions for homes due to higher rates measured by @UMich have fallen to lowest since 1980s pic.twitter.com/TdbSAlYZSY
'Since 1926, SPX has seen 15 bear markets with a median drop of 34% over 17 months. In nearly 75% of these cases selling paused noticeably when the market was down 15-20% from the peak, reversing some losses before resuming the trip to the bottom.' https://t.co/fH7ZwbmMLl
Meanwhile, ironically amid intensifying recession talk, 2022 SP500 EPS estimates hit a new high: $229. Which has the PE by that measure at 18. Which seems reasonable and fair to me.
Will be interesting to see how the market responds to this new TGT profit warning. If mr market can shrug it off that would be perceived as a positive.
Meanwhile, ironically amid intensifying recession talk, 2022 SP500 EPS estimates hit a new high: $229. Which has the PE by that measure at 18. Which seems reasonable and fair to me.
Will be interesting to see how the market responds to this new TGT profit warning. If mr market can shrug it off that would be perceived as a positive.
After a marginally positive day yesterday, today looking bad based on pre opening prices.
Oil stocks down, bitcoin way down, Telsa way down, twitter well down, SP 500 down nearly 1%, NASDAQ down 1.25%.
Meanwhile, ironically amid intensifying recession talk, 2022 SP500 EPS estimates hit a new high: $229. Which has the PE by that measure at 18. Which seems reasonable and fair to me.
Will be interesting to see how the market responds to this new TGT profit warning. If mr market can shrug it off that would be perceived as a positive.
After a marginally positive day yesterday, today looking bad based on pre opening prices.
Oil stocks down, bitcoin way down, Telsa way down, twitter well down, SP 500 down nearly 1%, NASDAQ down 1.25%.
Down $88k since 4/21.
Great system to fund your retirement
Vanguard total stock market index, VTSMX, founded in 1992, has compounded at 10% per year for the 30 years of its existence.
Meanwhile, ironically amid intensifying recession talk, 2022 SP500 EPS estimates hit a new high: $229. Which has the PE by that measure at 18. Which seems reasonable and fair to me.
Will be interesting to see how the market responds to this new TGT profit warning. If mr market can shrug it off that would be perceived as a positive.
TGT, MSFT, AAPL, the list will grow and those numbers will shrink….
Vanguard total stock market index, VTSMX, founded in 1992, has compounded at 10% per year for the 30 years of its existence.
Can't shake a stick at that.
How is it doing this year?
What it did in the 1990s thru the end of 2021 does not help me.
The point is that the way this works is to invest now for where the market will be in the year 2040. Not where the market will be in 2022 or 2023.
there was also a ton of bad times 1992-2022 but those who weathered it made a ton of money. And I guarantee you that in almost every year 1992-2022 thousands of people bailed saying ‘this is a terrible way to save for retirement.’
Meanwhile, ironically amid intensifying recession talk, 2022 SP500 EPS estimates hit a new high: $229. Which has the PE by that measure at 18. Which seems reasonable and fair to me.
Will be interesting to see how the market responds to this new TGT profit warning. If mr market can shrug it off that would be perceived as a positive.
TGT, MSFT, AAPL, the list will grow and those numbers will shrink….
nice...TGT down just 1.5% after a serious profit warning, and after being down 7-8% in the premarket. That kind of shrugging off bad news is the foundation of a bull market. And retail in general beating the market today despite that.
N=1, but start to pile these experiences on and people get some confidence back.
This is interesting....I've had a massive pro-inflation bet on for years...via TIPS overweighted vs. straight treasuries. This probably is the time to take profits and remove the TIPS overweight. Because either way - recession or soft landing....we'll have less inflation in a year. bell is ringing. Grab the 3% yields now.
David Kelly of JPM:
For investors, however, the most obvious inference, is that food and energy inflation will either fade in the short run, setting the stage for a soft landing, or persist, and by doing so precipitate a recession that will bring prices down in a more brutal fashion. Under either scenario, inflation is likely to be lower a year from now than today. Consequently, in diversifying against many risks, investors would probably be wise not to attempt to bet on an increase in, or even a continuation of, today’s very high inflation.
Seven of eight indexes on our world watch list posted losses through June 6, 2022. The top performer is London's FTSE 100 with a YTD gain of 3.03%. Tokyo's Nikkei 225 is in second with a loss of 3.04% and India's BSE SENSEX is in third with a loss of 4.43%. Coming in last is our own S&P 500 with a loss of 13.53% YTD.
Not much has changed so I haven't done one of these for a while.
Same pattern...dividends and value are the big winners, along with short funds.
Is this an opportunity to buy US consumer discretionary? -24% is a big haircut for some ver prestigious brands.
Clean energy still in the doghouse...coiled spring or uninvestable? Seems that it should do well when its dirty cousin is doing so well. Probably clean energy has been a victim of tech-itis.
All in all, pretty standard stuff in stockland. we could had hidden out in value and dividend stocks and utilities and short term bonds. The market is working right now, sorting out short term risk and rewarding/punishing accordingly. Correlations have not gone to 1.
Big questions:
Buy value now or is to too late?
Is tech going to rebound?
Has the cow tilted and now non-US stocks will outperform for ten years?
Continue piling into energy or too late?
I saved the best for last: Hussman got a second Morningstar star! First time I can remember that happening. But I might just not be remembering. Sweet that ARKK went from 5 stars to 1 while Hussman got a second star. Poetic justice.
My two latest EMD and FAX are both up ~1% today, and I am up 1-3% on each. I believe they are still a buy, but I am reinvesting dividends in case I am off on timing. Also, I will add if EMD trades in the $9.50s and FAX under $3.00.