Down goes the Dow

hey maser if that is really you.

the vix is up to 20 - that's in the range of peak VIXes from market downturns over the last 5 years. It went up more a few times but not much more

so if that pattern holds there may be another scary day or two but the worst of it is likely over.

coach d wrote:

K5 detector wrote:

It's K5's way of celebrating the 6000 post mark in his thread.

Oh, you mean celebrating all the money he didn't make by not being in the market in one of the biggest bull markets in history?

According to the guy a few pages ago (and Flagpole's logic), you haven't made ANYTHING if you haven't sold.

well actually I should say we're near the top of the 3 year range, not 5 yeras,

In 2011 there was a more fearful time...was that one of the brinksmanship congress v. America deals? I don't remember.

The S&P 500 was not down 1.66% today, since S&P did not sell. Ask LeT.

And Shanghai Composite ETFs like ASHR did not fall 40% in the last 3 weeks. Any experienced stockbroker can tell you this is why many people do not make ANY money in the market: lack of a selling policy. People who did not sell 3Q2007-1Q2008 have had to use of most of what they made in this whole bull market just to get back even from what they lost from the previous bear market....and you don't get anywhere that way.

It is ALL real money. Of course, arguing about realized vs. unrealized gains doesn't apply if you don't have any gains to realize because you sat out the much or all of the bull market (K5).

agip wrote:

jaysus things are screwy - I am not getting market orders filled right now in big ETFs

Anonymous just won the internet with last night's tweet:

"Wonder if tomorrow is going to be bad for Wall Street.... we can only hope."

I have had clients over the years that refuse to sell highly cyclical stocks that pay no dividend. They ride them up and ride them back down again. Makes no sense to me. At the very minimum take out a portion of your investment. I did that myself today, I had a short on and closed half the position.

Good for the gander wrote:

coach d wrote:

Oh, you mean celebrating all the money he didn't make by not being in the market in one of the biggest bull markets in history?

According to the guy a few pages ago (and Flagpole's logic), you haven't made ANYTHING if you haven't sold.

Truth. You don't make or lose real money until you sell. Common sense.

It was an imposter.

China starts down 0.25-3.50%, Nikkei down 2.0%, Dow, Nasdaq, and S&P futures up abour .25%.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

I think John Hussman is one of the most thoughtfull writers and I look forward to his weekly commentary. I have never invested in his fund, but I think it would be worth looking at.

The transparency of Hussman's growth fund is admirable, but his track record is so bad it's amazing he's still in business. Interestingly, his stock picks over the past 5 years have beaten the SPX, but year after year the fund has lost money because his hedging strategies simply haven't worked.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

China starts down 0.25-3.50%, Nikkei down 2.0%, Dow, Nasdaq, and S&P futures up abour .25%.

At midnight eastern, S&P futures up 11.25. Something noteworthy is that in the commitment of traders reports for the SP500, the large commercials have cut shorts sharply and are now long ~9600 contracts overall. The is the first outright long for them since the 2011 low, and short periods in 9/2012 and 10/2013. Also the daily CCI is below -100 (oversold) and the 14 day RSI shows positive divergence.

Looks like the bears are just about out of time for now. They had a couple of shots at taking out the chart support at 2040 and couldn't get it done--even with Anonymous apparently hacking the NYSE. Looks like, lacking a Trojan Horse from the Greeks on Sunday, we go test the top end of the channel at ~2150.

Good for the goose wrote:

Good for the gander wrote:

According to the guy a few pages ago (and Flagpole's logic), you haven't made ANYTHING if you haven't sold.

Truth. You don't make or lose real money until you sell. Common sense.

That might be argued for an investment with unimpaired intrinsic value, but to argue that in all cases is just foolish. And, wrong.

Good for the goose wrote:

Good for the gander wrote:

According to the guy a few pages ago (and Flagpole's logic), you haven't made ANYTHING if you haven't sold.

Truth. You don't make or lose real money until you sell. Common sense.

Interesting common sense... so Buffett never once in his life made any real money from his Berkshire Hathaway stock.

Buffett makes - or loses - money when he sells stocks. In between buying and selling, he may make money from dividends. But the big $$ isn't realized until the stock is sold.

Your analysis is correct. I can remember the legions of failed value investors in 1999-2000 during the Tech Bubble. Those value investors that survived came out on top on the other side. I imagine the same value investor would find the current environment challenging.

Agreed. There is more money on the buy side, the question is if they can move above that 2150 channel. I would think it has to be lead by the high multiple stocks, healthcare and financials. I am neutral on which direction it heads, but in my view with valuations near the top, the Bull case becomes more difficult.

OK Guys: The big correction everyones been talking about has come and gone!

Let the buying begin.

"if you take into a account today's very low interest rates the market can be called cheap. "

Read more:

http://www.letsrun.com/forum/flat_read.php?thread=5369837&page=298#ixzz3fPDDfOV6

agip,

I know I will be criticized for pulling this from Stockman's website, but I think the article summarizes my views on the market valuation, interest rates, and the stagnant economy.

Igy

http://davidstockmanscontracorner.com/casino-economics-pe-multiples-exceedingly-high-prime-age-employment-growth-non-existent/