........PSAC.......

Boro Boom wrote:

You act like every other team in the conference isn't working their butt off to win a conference title and be able to make nationals and so well there

never said that. they better be working their butts off or why bother even competing right? but it's always the same few teams that get talked about year in and year out, only the same few teams that are ever given a reasonable chance to win. happened to be mansfield this year. i like rooting for the underdogs, it's a nice story.

Rumor has it Cheyney got a few new Kenyans in the system for cross and are just waiting for that ban to end. The end is near for all of you. Here are some names if you don't believe the hype... Rudolph Kiplagat, Blitzen Kiplagat, and Kupid Kiplagat...this is really happening people.

Boro Boom wrote:

You act like every other team in the conference isn't working their butt off to win a conference title and be able to make nationals and so well there

Oh poor little Boro Fan Boy did the PSAC results upset your paradigm of world dominance? The thought of a program like Mansfield winning got your undies in a bunch? All programs work hard. ALL. Regardless of the place at a conference meet. Hard work hasn't been the domain of a few select schools. They didn't get there because they outworked someone. They also have talent and coaching and opportunity. And the sooner you fan boys learn that the success of someone else doesn't diminish your achievements you might establish a decent sense of self esteem and stop trolling these boards.

This weekend is gonna be stanky.

Let's hear more about these supposed Kenyans coming in...you have intrigued me...

You are kidding right? If not, re-read the first names and sing the Rudolf song.

School of Blatantly Obvious wrote:

You are kidding right? If not, re-read the first names and sing the Rudolf song.

the raindeer weren't kenyan though

#StachePower #ShockTheWorld

You guys just wait. Boro will be coming back guns blazing this weekend!! Prepare yourselves for a d*ckstomping

Boro Power!!

Things we know

On the men...

LHU, Boro, and Ship have been, and continue to be, heads above everyone consistently now for the last 5-6 years. They have coaching, tradition, and money on their side. They attract the top in state male recruits and 2nd tier kids to stock pile recruits and they supplement regularly with D1 transfers.

It will take a significant dedicated effort, over several years to unseat these three.

The LHU men and Boro men could both be top 8 and bring back extra berths

On the women …

The women’s side changes more rapidly and looks like it will continue to do so but the 3 staples will be Ship, Boro, and IUP who continue to attract top talent.

The Boro women and Mansfield women look like they can bring extra spots back as well.

Boro and Haven likely won't beat the following teams: (note, this all men's only)

Adams

Western

Chico - Chavez is a top 10 guy and Chico is better than anyone in the PSAC at 2-4 and not far behind if at all with the 5

Augustana - Yak is a top 10 guy and they group well behind him

Southern Indiana - absolutely crushed Boro at Louisville (7 in front of the Boro 3 man)

Grand Valley - Beat Southern Indiana at Regionals

Edinboro hasn't looked like a top 8 team at any point this year. That hope is largely based on their 9th place finish last season, but they haven't looked like the same team. I know everyone is excited about how fast the regional results are this year. This year the race went out in 4:35, last year the field followed Monroe through the mile in 5:02. It set a completely different tone for the race and its a great example of why comparing times year to year is difficult in XC, especially at championship races.

Here's a little research on PSAC history since 2000 and why I don't think we have two top 8 teams, and why we might not have any:

Since 2000 the PSAC has only placed two teams in the top 10 at the same championships; 2004 when Boro was 7th and Haven was 9th. In 2010, Ship was 7th, the only mens team to crack the top 8 since 2004. No one in the PSAC has cracked the top 6 since 2000, when Boro was 4th. The PSAC just doesn't put teams in the top 10 very often, and when we do its at 7,8,9,10. We might have a top 8 team on the men's side, but there's almost no chance we have 2 of the top 8 teams in the country.

Women:

One note before talking about Nats. Seton Hill should have something to say about who wins PSACs next year. Bringing all 7 back with 30 second spread makes them a team to watch.

Teams our Women won't beat:

Adams

Grand Valley

Western

I want to put Alaska Anchorage, Chico and Simon Fraser as locks as well, but they all have some weakness. I can't be sure the weaknesses of the teams in the West are better than the weaknesses of the teams in the Atlantic. History says they should be better, but Mansfield won PSACs so it isn't a year for relying on history with the women.

On a great day, I can envision either Mansfield or Edinboro challenging for a top 5 spot. Neither team has a definite top 10 girl, but they both go 4 deep with top 50 caliber runners, with sizable gaps to the 5. Ship has had the best #5 runner at both the PSAC and regional meet, but do they have a top 50 girl? IUP takes the most experience to the national meet, led by a likely All America in Magliane.

Is it possible to have four teams in the top 15 and none in the top 8?

If the Atlantic Regional ladies run like they did at the regional and the other teams run like they did at their respective regional, this could be a special year for the PSAC women with what I think are 4 potential top 10 teams. D2 is weak on the women's side. Projections

1. GVSU- Untouchable

2. Adams- Untouchable by rest of D2 even with average race

3. Western- Assuming run like they did at RMACs and not like at the Regional

4. Boro- Must race as well as at regional

5. Mansfield- Same as Boro and can be 4th as likely as the Boro

6. Alaska Anchorage- Kenyans provide great punch but 3,4 are too far back

7. Saginaw Valley- Solid pack with a better 5 than teams not in the top 2.

8. Chico- This can change if top girl returns to 2012 form

9. Ship- Similar to Saginaw but no front runner. Reynah could change this

10. IUP- Front runner helps but is beat at almost every other runner by teams ranked ahead

11. Simon Fraser- Good pack but no top 40 girls.

Drops off fast after this

Believe 3-8 are easily interchangeable and my predictions are definitely biased towards our PSAC girls but also realistic.

Men it will be an ugly national meet. Whichever teams are least ugly will win/finish top 8. Been a very up and down year for most teams. Two top 10 teams from PSAC is likely but beating any of the 7 teams ranked ahead of Haven I believe is a long long shot. But if things are to get crazy and anyone is to get lucky on the men's side, this is the year. Boro is hurt by lack of front runner unless Deibel regains 2012 form but will not count them out.

It's going to be an interesting dogfight that's for sure between boro and mansfield. boro's number 5 girl at psacs had the race of her life at regionals and was actually 4th on the team. she moved from 34th at the conference level to 20th at the regional, thats nuts. and even then mansfield was only 8 points back. any given day and i think mansfields top runner was a bit under the weather from what ive heard. anywhere from 4-6 for both teams. also, ship was missing their top girl from conferences at the regional meet. ok i just typed that and saw you wrote that already but i think they can sneak in the top 8 as well.

Okay let's talk about the individual races, Men:

Monroe is a stud, but I don't think he's a surefire national champion. The major players will be:

Olstad - just outside of AA honors in XC last year, obviously the track season has propelled him forward.

Chavez - a sub 29 track guy with 2 top 10 XC finishes on his resume. He might be the guy to beat on a course he has seen quite a few times in his career.

Biwott - runner up at Paul Short, a few places and quite a few seconds ahead of Monroe

The 3 Adams guys - Batt and Stevens both placed ahead of Monroe last year at the NCAA meet, Godinez has been running with them this year. I think Monroe has moved past these guys, but you can't talk about NCAA XC without mentioning Adams.

Most of the country will be picking Olstad or Chavez, and the track credentials seem to back that claim. I think Monroe can win, but he could also race very well and be 4th behind Chavez, Olstad, and Biwott.

Women:

Davis isn't a top 5 girl. I know that ends a nice 3 year run of top 3 finishes, but it isn't likely to happen. Scordino looked like a potential top 5 girl at Paul Short, but hasn't looked as good at PSACs or Regionals.

Susan Tanui - individual favorite, track and XC credentials to get a title this year

Lauren Martin & Kelly Lamb & Alyssa Selve - a group of girls with sub 17 or sub 4:55 credentials that went 1-2-3 at the regional meet. I think the South Central is down a bit, but I think all 3 of these girls end up near the top 10.

Jessica Janecke - sub 17 girl with a top 5 finish last year. Leader of the GVSU team looking for the win.

Samantha Johnson - winner of the Midwest region race over Janecke, didn't run well at NCAAs last year but the win over Janecke makes her someone to watch.

Jennifer Agnew - track stud who ran away from everyone @ the Central region championships.

Kristin Brondbo - 10th last year, 3 time All America for Augie. The team is down a little bit but Brondbo has been a consistent performer for them.

Runa Falch - Doesn't deserve to be here based on 2013 performances. But she's gone sub 16:30 on the track and was 8th last year. If she steps up she changes Augie's team fortunes as well.

I think Davis finishes in the top 10. There are obviously some girls that surprise, but I think the individual champion comes from the Janecke, Tanui, Agnew, Johnson, and Martin group.

Thomas may be back for boro also.

It appears Vin Banana has changed his name.

Very good analysis of the PSAC teams for NCAAs. I'm on the national women polls committee and I feel like some folks on here provided more detail than some of our national pollsters do. Nice to see some great posts on this thread again.

Rick Hammerpants wrote:

It appears Vin Banana has changed his name.

Close, Vin was always more than one person posting under one name. There can only be one Ed Buck.

Coach Young, some of us have much more free time to look at results than NCAA coaches. We should be able to provide some decent analysis.