Down goes the Dow

Geezus, you are as dumb as a rock.

Because mom compounds, that sequence will give about 5% annually, assuming each of the next 6 mom’s are 0.3%.

Clearly better, even if annualized using such projected mom changes.

And if it holds for 6 mos after that, it will be 3.65% annualized.

Even better, and getting into the Fed’s range—and that would be in the belly of 2023, so not too far off, really.

Tesla should be under $300. No reason for it to be this high.

How did you arrive at that number?

End of day even worse. Here are the annual returns for my holdings:

-9.9%, -3.7%, -9.1%, -7.4%, -10%, -4%, -14%, - 13.9%, -3%, -3%, -5.5%, - 16.5%, -18.6%, -14.1%, -1.45%.

Lost, in one day, @ 10% on all equities.

Fortunately my equities are down to barely 6% of liquid assets. Down from 15% due to market meltdown and my pulling quite a bit out.

Seattle Prattle, are you still holding AMZN?

If any of y'all remember, I was the one who was talking about "shoeshine" indicators back in October, where I was watching all these average joes I work with bragging about how much money they were making in stocks. And recommending speculative IPOs to me. Anyway, I sold some things in Dec/early Jan, but I wish had sold more of my AMZN. Hindsight at 20-20....

Daily, not annual, returns

What's on tap for tomorrow?

Any guesses?

Always a great indicator, but got greedy

HSGFX 15% YTD

SARK 88% YTD

😉

Come on, 16!

$300 share price would be a market cap around $310bil with PE around 40, similar to other growth stocks. Still way more expensive than TM.

I wonder if Sally still thinks TSLA is a better investment in 2022 than SARK.

By the way, this piece from Putin’s disinformation source is more interesting for investors than Hunter’s laptop:

zerohedge.com

Retail Is Puking: "This Is The 5th Biggest Sell Day On Record"

"Retail has been an important buyer of dips, and with the retail bid dissipating just a lack of buying is likely enough to create an air pocket in the medium-term."

Link:www.zerohedge.com/markets/retail-pukin...

Bitcoin $29,919….down faster than a perma bear can snap their fingers….

😷wear a mask to cover the stench….

I know I'm just talking with myself whenever I share these graphs, but for my own amusement, here is an update of the forecast I shared about four years ago:

ibb.co

Slide18

Image Slide18 hosted in ImgBB

Link:ibb.co/LppqqmD

The "smooth trajectory" is a best fit of SP500 from 1950 to March 2018, and represents my first crude, naive estimate of "the mean" that the index wants to revert to (or rather to fluctuate about). Here is a plot, with index values (y-axis) on a logarithmic scale so that my best fit (smooth trajectory) plots as a straight line, and you can see the index fluctuate over time above and below:

ibb.co

Slide19

Image Slide19 hosted in ImgBB

Link:ibb.co/RHdvHLD

Since I made this forecast in March 2018 (which racket mocked for being so broad as to be meaningless, which is fair criticism from a certain perspective), the index has fluctuated within my 10th percentile to 90th percentile bounds, kissing those thresholds three times (twice at 10, once at 90).

If I were a betting man, which I'm not, I'd wager there's still a lot of room to fall.

While I'm not a "betting man," per se, I have been making investing decisions over the past 3-4 years with this graph in the back of my head, moving hard to cash about a year ago when things were starting to feel a bit too hot according to the "idiot index."

I personally think there's some downward momentum that needs to run out, and I'll be keeping my powder dry (or shorting something if an obvious candidate appears) until SP500 is at least under 3500, and then maybe start to ease back in.

My partner has spending habits to fund past retirement, I can't light the whole nest egg on fire! :-)

My $0.02

Volatility. Beyond that, who knows.

Magical Internet money almost down to buy territory on the rainbow chart.

Not exactly sure how to verify this, but Michael Burry said months ago that there is a totally unsustainable amount of leverage in crypto, something like 100:1 in some cases, and that he expected it to tank. Part of me wants to buy in, but I also see it as a total gamble no matter what the price. Definitely not something any value investor should touch with anything they're not prepared to lose.