"Pandemic of the unvaccinated" CONFIRMED

Harambe wrote:

NachoLibre wrote:

Has anyone actually parsed this out to see the actual health situations of the unvaccinated vs. the vaccinated? Maybe unvaccinated are generally more unhealthy? Drinkers, drug users, compulsive eaters, homeless? Obviously plenty of unvaccinated and vaccinated are getting covid, and some of each are going to the hospital. Let's have a hard look at all reasonable questions to make sure we aren't unfairly pandering to the vaccine mills.

These data closely match what the phase III trials and later surveillance studies have shown. These studies matched cohorts to ensure these biases were not confounding (or that confounding was greatly limited).

At some point you're just gonna have to accept that the vaccines work really well and you have no evidence to the contrary.

I am talking in real-time for at least the last few days and/or weeks. Do you have a problem with that? When were the Phase 3 trials, how do the vague "later surveillance studies" bury this question? Vaccinated and unvaccinated are getting tested positive at very high rates if you want to say the unvaccinated are having bad results compared to vaccinated, exclusively on that one factor of having the jab or not, if you can't prove that it isn't, which you haven't done, be open to the idea that relative health could be a factor. Prove that it isn't. It makes sense to look at it. The more enfranchised are the most healthy and the most vaccinated. They have had the lowest rates of positives and bad outcomes well before the vaccines, since the vaccines. It's not time to say what is what definitively, without opening your mind.

I do not care about mild cases in highly vaxxed populations. You should not either. The fact remains that efficacy against severe disease is very, very high for all vaccine series and this is reflected in the -overwhelming- imbalance of hospitalization and death rates between the vaxxed and unvaxxed.

You are obsessed with Cornell this week just like you were obsessed with some random Colorado county data until they started to put up -rates- of cases/hospitalization/deaths between vaxxed and unvaxxed -- showing strong vaccine efficacy. You will move on when, shockingly, the vaccine protects people from serious COVID effects.

The NYC data is going to show a giant spike soon. The vaccinated are going to be very well protected. The primary issue is places with lower vax rates are going to suffer medical resource limitations as the unvaxxed stream into the hospitals for another wave. I, as usual, find it amusing that you insist ALL other data is BS except the data from a relatively small, tight-knit college campus. The fearmongering is getting a little weird from you.

This is a lot like the dudes who told me the vaccine was definitely not working because people partying in Provincetown got breakthrough cases. Yeah, I was right then and will continue to be right.

Yet you still devote all your time to fearmongering the vaccine, misrepresenting statistics, and cherry picking numbers. Why? All you're doing is bolstering the antivaxx propaganda that has claimed 10s of thousands of lives and will claim many more.

"Out of the students infected with COVID-19, the school has “not seen severe illness” as of Dec. 14, Pollack assured."

Seems like what's happening at Cornell suggests two things:

1. The vaccines do not effectively prevent someone from getting (testing positive) with the Omicron variant.

2. The vaccines are quite effective in preventing serious illness from the Omicron variant.

What Cornell does not show is the difference in outcome between the vaccinated and unvaccinated, since virtually everyone at Cornell is vaccinated.

And also, since most of the world doesn't live in dorms or eat in dining halls, or attend classes in large classrooms with dozens or maybe hundreds of other people, I'm not sure of the value of comparing the experience on a college campus with a non-college setting.

Let's all take a moment to send out thoughts to the antivaxxers, now suddenly quivering about Cornell, where everyone is mandated to be tested once a week.

For months I've been told that most COVID cases are mild and therefore over-testing is pointless fear-mongering BS. Now that testing is showing that Omicron breaks through prior immunity (which we already knew and accepted), massive surveillance testing is suddenly... good?

I have never seen such levels of mild-case fear-porn than I am seeing from the antivaxxers right now, even from the most Leftist sky-is-falling COVID folks. The about-face is remarkable. If only they took COVID so seriously at other times, maybe we wouldn't be nearing 1 million excess deaths.

They re-opened this thread for Harambe, They should close it because of him. He is as bad as anyone he is arguing with, just on the safe side of things.

Harambe wrote:

Nobody smart is really going to argue against the fact that being unvaccinated puts you at higher risk of infection, hospitalization, and death. Under a fast-spreading scenario the numbers are going to show the unvaccinated faring worse. (just as they do in every scenario, but widespread, high transmissible COVID can remove some confounders)

Unless you wish to argue that the vaccine doesn't prevent against severe disease. Feel free to take that position, makes my life even easier.

Sorry. Hit Reply before I typed my response. Against infection, I would say no. People who are unvaccinated are more likely to have had an infection at this point than the vaccinated, so they would likely have a lower rate of infection with COVID than the vaccinated, as natural immunity still trumps vaccinated immunity. This is somewhat supported by data from the UK, where the infection rate is lower for unvaccinated individuals than vaccinated individuals in the 18-69 demographics. As far as hospitalizations and death, the vaccines are about 3-4 times more more effective than being unvaccinated (although probably not any better than being previously infected). The only exception to that would be in the under 18 sub-set (deaths from COVID in this demographic are rare regardless of vaccination status), where unvaccinated individuals had a lower death rate than vaccinated individuals in the most recent surveillance (this may simply reflect kids with pre-existing conditions are more likely to be vaccinated than those without).

You should have stopped after your first sentence.

"Biden fixed Covid" - Harambe

When you watch the cognitively declining Pres tomorrow imagine Harambe stating, then doubling down on, this. Harambe, you have no credibility. Any chance you had to influence anyone in a positive way, and encourage vaccinations is gone. It's gone because you showed yourself a partisan, not to mention a propaganda arm for Big Pharma.

Nacho, please don't bring other variables into this, Harambe prefers "vaccines-the more the better = good...any discussions of other possible variables = bad". Binary thinkers need to keep it this simple.

Cornell is located in Tompkins County.

As of December 19, 2021, Tompkins County was 75% fully vaccinated.

https://data.democratandchronicle.com/covid-19-vaccine-tracker/new-york/tompkins-county/36109/

From 8/1/21-12/16/21, were 119 people in Tompkins County who were hospitalized with Covid. Of that number, 78 were known to be unvaccinated (the vaccination status of 5 people was unknown, so the number of unvaccinated was likely higher).

https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/Nukqj/13/

That works out to 65% of hospitalizations in the county where Cornell is located have been of the unvaccinated, when 75% of the total population is fully vaccinated. Seems like the vaccines are doing a pretty good job of preventing serious illness.

Thank you for bringing up Cornell, the experience there reinforces the whole point of this thread, which is that this is a pandemic of the unvaccinated.

The Lily Hammer wrote:

"Out of the students infected with COVID-19, the school has “not seen severe illness” as of Dec. 14, Pollack assured."

https://www.miamiherald.com/news/coronavirus/article256617881.html

Seems like what's happening at Cornell suggests two things:

1. The vaccines do not effectively prevent someone from getting (testing positive) with the Omicron variant.

2. The vaccines are quite effective in preventing serious illness from the Omicron variant.

What Cornell does not show is the difference in outcome between the vaccinated and unvaccinated, since virtually everyone at Cornell is vaccinated.

And also, since most of the world doesn't live in dorms or eat in dining halls, or attend classes in large classrooms with dozens or maybe hundreds of other people, I'm not sure of the value of comparing the experience on a college campus with a non-college setting.

Colleges in general haven't seen severe illnesses in their students regardless of vaccination status, and the few times they have, it typically hasn't been in the handful of days they had Omicron cases on campus before they shut things down. It usually isn't until two weeks after an individual has been infected that they start to show severe symptoms. Like Harambe's data from December 4th, your news is pretty much meaningless.

Harmabe has been gone for more than a minute. He must have gone to find out "what would Dr. Fauci say"!

Ban Harambe.

NachoLibre wrote:

They re-opened this thread for Harambe, They should close it because of him. He is as bad as anyone he is arguing with, just on the safe side of things.

No, as usual, I am measured, consistent, and reasonable. Apologies if that upsets you.

Harambe wrote:

NachoLibre wrote:

They re-opened this thread for Harambe, They should close it because of him. He is as bad as anyone he is arguing with, just on the safe side of things.

No, as usual, I am measured, consistent, and reasonable. Apologies if that upsets you.

No, you're biased and well...not very smart.

The Lily Hammer wrote:

Cornell is located in Tompkins County.

As of December 19, 2021, Tompkins County was 75% fully vaccinated.

https://data.democratandchronicle.com/covid-19-vaccine-tracker/new-york/tompkins-county/36109/

From 8/1/21-12/16/21, were 119 people in Tompkins County who were hospitalized with Covid. Of that number, 78 were known to be unvaccinated (the vaccination status of 5 people was unknown, so the number of unvaccinated was likely higher).

https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/Nukqj/13/

That works out to 65% of hospitalizations in the county where Cornell is located have been of the unvaccinated, when 75% of the total population is fully vaccinated. Seems like the vaccines are doing a pretty good job of preventing serious illness.

Thank you for bringing up Cornell, the experience there reinforces the whole point of this thread, which is that this is a pandemic of the unvaccinated.

Mind boggling. A college with nearly 100% vaccination shuts down for Covid and people point to its location in a county that is "only" 75% vaxxed to reach the pre ordained conclusion that its the fault of the unvaxxed!

These people will never wake up

Oh Good, so I can expect a quality reply to my two questions. (you dodged the first one). Fine to take your side, playing charades with it isn't.

1) There is no evidence that infection-driven immunity is better against Omicron than 2 doses of vax. Plenty of studies show, for the first time, near-complete lack of neutralization against Omicron. Reinfections are soaring in places that actually track this stat, another sign.

2) Again, you are choosing to cherry pick and attempt to interpret unadjusted rates from the UK's surveillance dataset despite explicit warnings of confounders AND ignore the calculated VE against death and hospitalization presented earlier in the document that shows 90-98% efficacy.

3) If all you can to do is fearmonger mild cases, as I've pointed out many times, then you probably should find a new hobby.

Not clear what you're going on about. There is something on the order of a 10x difference in serious outcomes (hospitalization/death) for vaccinated vs unvaccinated in virtually every such survey. The NYC numbers are entirely consistent with that.

Cornell case rates increased about 14x over the two most recent weeks and they do far more surveillance testing than NYC so it's not clear what point you're trying to make. What is clear from the Cornell data is how quickly community spread can happen even in a vaccinated population which is why a lot of serious people are worried about the current wave.

Anyone hospitalized with Covid?

Have you guys never heard of cohort matching in a clinical trial or observational study?

I know Dunning-Kruger has failed to replicate, but how else can one explain midwits expounding at length about confounding variables that have been known and understood for a century +. Demographic matching of all arms of a clinical trials is a central tenet of running a quality study. Do you seriously think scientists have not thought of this?

For example look at this publication on VE against death from delta using surveillance data from Scotland:

The authors state:

You are welcome to follow the citation if you suspect they made a gross error in adjusting for the above confounders in their cohorts.

Real-time data displayed on dashboards often do not adjust for all of these confounders as it requires more data wrangling (they often adjust for age, which is a very important confounder). Yet, the estimated VE numbers we see from rates reported closely match those from clinical trials and more rigorous observational studies. This suggests that the 'unvaccinated' and 'vaccinated' cohorts are roughly comparable (IF you adjust for age!)