Official US-Israel-Iran War Thread

Newname wrote:

Precious Roy wrote:

Blog post below is pretty amazing. But having some experience in the legal world with real estate developers, this is exactly what they do whenever there is a problem with a big development they are working on. Investors get mad at progress and start demanding inspection of books and records and send legal demands. The developer then says "hey, everything is going great and we are actually going to be ahead of schedule once the final permitting hurdle is cleared." Months go by and investors again want to know where their money is. The developer then says "hey, the weather was bad and one of the subcontractors screwed up and had to be fired, but we have a new guy on the job and we are back on schedule and under budget." Months go by and things are till behind and the project is bleeding money. The developer then says "hey, we have huge pre-leasing demand and this thing is going to make tons of money but the soil study was bad and we had to re-do the foundation. Everything is back on track but we need another $10 mil to finish the project."

Trump is running this conflict just like a real estate developer. He will say and do anything to get the heat off him to buy some more time in hopes that he can muddle through and get something done. He promises massive military strikes to keep the hawks off his back. He then says that there is a framework of a deal and the war will be over in a day or two to keep markets from crashing.

Iran Has 'Almost' Made a Deal With the U.S. Six Times.
When the US and Israel launched strikes on Iran on Feb. 28, Brent crude was trading around $72 a barrel. Within weeks it was approaching $120. Two months on, with the Strait of Hormuz still functionally closed and negotiations going nowhere fast, prices have swung wildly on every headline — and traders are running out of optimism to price in.
Here's how it's played out.
February 28: The War Starts
US and Israeli strikes kill Supreme Leader Khamenei and gut Iran's military infrastructure. Iran shuts the Strait of Hormuz in retaliation. Brent surges 51% in March alone — one of the largest single-month price jumps on record. The IEA calls it "the biggest energy security threat in history."
Early April: The First 'Deal'
On April 1, Trump claims Iran asked for a ceasefire. Iran calls the claim "false and baseless."
Days later, after threatening to destroy Iran's "whole civilization," Trump backs off. On April 8, Pakistan brokers a two-week ceasefire, with Iran agreeing to reopen Hormuz. Markets exhale. Hours later, Iran's Lavan Island refinery and Sirri Island crude facilities are struck by what Tehran calls an "enemy attack." The strait doesn't reopen.
April 11-12: Islamabad Talks Collapse
Vance, Witkoff and Kushner fly to Islamabad. After 21 hours of talks, Vance walks out saying Iran refused US terms. Trump announces he "no longer cares about negotiations." On April 13, the US launches a naval blockade of Iranian ports. Brent climbs back toward $120.
Mid-to-Late April: The Revolving Door
April 15: Trump says he wants the war to end "swiftly."
April 17: Iran briefly allows commercial vessels through Hormuz during a Lebanon ceasefire, then reimposed restrictions when the US refuses to lift its port blockade.
April 19: Trump calls new Pakistan talks Iran's "last chance" and threatens to target power plants and bridges.
Brent hits $126.41 on April 30, a four-year high, before pulling back to $114.
May 1: Iran's Proposal, Trump's Rejection
Iran sends an updated peace proposal to Pakistani mediators. Brent drops 2% to $108, WTI falls 3% to $101 on the news. Trump later says: "Iran wants to make a deal, but I'm not satisfied with it."
May 5-6: Project Freedom, Then the Pause
Trump launches "Project Freedom" — a Navy-led effort to escort stranded vessels through Hormuz. Iran attacks the UAE. Oil jumps 4% Monday, then falls 4% Tuesday after Hegseth confirms the ceasefire is "not over."
Then on Tuesday night, Trump suspends Project Freedom citing "great progress" in talks.
A Pakistani source tells Reuters that a one-page deal is close. Brent crashes 8.6% to $100.40, WTI drops 9.8% to $92.23 on Wednesday.

Thanks. Great detailed summary. I guessed it was about six times they have run this same scam. I have oil stock which have climbed uo pretty regularly the past 2 months, only to have all gains taken away in one fell swoop -- six times! Same scam each time.

I am guessing if there is still any legitimacy to the market that oil prices will end up very high where they should be based on reality. Because this war will get hot again as Israel has not accomplished its goal -- the destruction of Iran.

Precious Roy wrote:

Newname wrote:

Oil going up -- a lot -- seems a safe bet.

If the war heats up -- and I am sure it will -- it is guaranteed.

Would not mind being wrong and losing some money if US/Israel backed down. Don't see that happening though. If they are going to kill all those people and cause massive inflation and a possible global depression...might as well make some money to pay for all the price increases headed our way

While it would be the mother of the mother of all TACOs for Trump to just give up and do a deal to get the Strait reopened and is highly unlikely even for Trump, if it did happen, 1,500 oil tankers would immediately set sail and deliver upwards of a billion barrels to a world economy that is going to be limping along due to the war. That will crash oil prices for a period of time to get that bottleneck worked through. And that may then whipsaw to a big spike again as constraints on supply due to damaged infrastructure and shut in wells will then have to work its way back through the oil markets. While the oil markets are definitely filled with some malicious speculators, there are very valid concerns about price stability if all the tankers suddenly are able to set sail.

Precious Roy wrote:

Blog post below is pretty amazing. But having some experience in the legal world with real estate developers, this is exactly what they do whenever there is a problem with a big development they are working on. Investors get mad at progress and start demanding inspection of books and records and send legal demands. The developer then says "hey, everything is going great and we are actually going to be ahead of schedule once the final permitting hurdle is cleared." Months go by and investors again want to know where their money is. The developer then says "hey, the weather was bad and one of the subcontractors screwed up and had to be fired, but we have a new guy on the job and we are back on schedule and under budget." Months go by and things are till behind and the project is bleeding money. The developer then says "hey, we have huge pre-leasing demand and this thing is going to make tons of money but the soil study was bad and we had to re-do the foundation. Everything is back on track but we need another $10 mil to finish the project."

Trump is running this conflict just like a real estate developer. He will say and do anything to get the heat off him to buy some more time in hopes that he can muddle through and get something done. He promises massive military strikes to keep the hawks off his back. He then says that there is a framework of a deal and the war will be over in a day or two to keep markets from crashing.

Iran Has 'Almost' Made a Deal With the U.S. Six Times.
When the US and Israel launched strikes on Iran on Feb. 28, Brent crude was trading around $72 a barrel. Within weeks it was approaching $120. Two months on, with the Strait of Hormuz still functionally closed and negotiations going nowhere fast, prices have swung wildly on every headline — and traders are running out of optimism to price in.
Here's how it's played out.
February 28: The War Starts
US and Israeli strikes kill Supreme Leader Khamenei and gut Iran's military infrastructure. Iran shuts the Strait of Hormuz in retaliation. Brent surges 51% in March alone — one of the largest single-month price jumps on record. The IEA calls it "the biggest energy security threat in history."
Early April: The First 'Deal'
On April 1, Trump claims Iran asked for a ceasefire. Iran calls the claim "false and baseless."
Days later, after threatening to destroy Iran's "whole civilization," Trump backs off. On April 8, Pakistan brokers a two-week ceasefire, with Iran agreeing to reopen Hormuz. Markets exhale. Hours later, Iran's Lavan Island refinery and Sirri Island crude facilities are struck by what Tehran calls an "enemy attack." The strait doesn't reopen.
April 11-12: Islamabad Talks Collapse
Vance, Witkoff and Kushner fly to Islamabad. After 21 hours of talks, Vance walks out saying Iran refused US terms. Trump announces he "no longer cares about negotiations." On April 13, the US launches a naval blockade of Iranian ports. Brent climbs back toward $120.
Mid-to-Late April: The Revolving Door
April 15: Trump says he wants the war to end "swiftly."
April 17: Iran briefly allows commercial vessels through Hormuz during a Lebanon ceasefire, then reimposed restrictions when the US refuses to lift its port blockade.
April 19: Trump calls new Pakistan talks Iran's "last chance" and threatens to target power plants and bridges.
Brent hits $126.41 on April 30, a four-year high, before pulling back to $114.
May 1: Iran's Proposal, Trump's Rejection
Iran sends an updated peace proposal to Pakistani mediators. Brent drops 2% to $108, WTI falls 3% to $101 on the news. Trump later says: "Iran wants to make a deal, but I'm not satisfied with it."
May 5-6: Project Freedom, Then the Pause
Trump launches "Project Freedom" — a Navy-led effort to escort stranded vessels through Hormuz. Iran attacks the UAE. Oil jumps 4% Monday, then falls 4% Tuesday after Hegseth confirms the ceasefire is "not over."
Then on Tuesday night, Trump suspends Project Freedom citing "great progress" in talks.
A Pakistani source tells Reuters that a one-page deal is close. Brent crashes 8.6% to $100.40, WTI drops 9.8% to $92.23 on Wednesday.

Precious Roy wrote:

Precious Roy wrote:

Blog post below is pretty amazing. But having some experience in the legal world with real estate developers, this is exactly what they do whenever there is a problem with a big development they are working on. Investors get mad at progress and start demanding inspection of books and records and send legal demands. The developer then says "hey, everything is going great and we are actually going to be ahead of schedule once the final permitting hurdle is cleared." Months go by and investors again want to know where their money is. The developer then says "hey, the weather was bad and one of the subcontractors screwed up and had to be fired, but we have a new guy on the job and we are back on schedule and under budget." Months go by and things are till behind and the project is bleeding money. The developer then says "hey, we have huge pre-leasing demand and this thing is going to make tons of money but the soil study was bad and we had to re-do the foundation. Everything is back on track but we need another $10 mil to finish the project."

Trump is running this conflict just like a real estate developer. He will say and do anything to get the heat off him to buy some more time in hopes that he can muddle through and get something done. He promises massive military strikes to keep the hawks off his back. He then says that there is a framework of a deal and the war will be over in a day or two to keep markets from crashing.

Iran Has 'Almost' Made a Deal With the U.S. Six Times.
When the US and Israel launched strikes on Iran on Feb. 28, Brent crude was trading around $72 a barrel. Within weeks it was approaching $120. Two months on, with the Strait of Hormuz still functionally closed and negotiations going nowhere fast, prices have swung wildly on every headline — and traders are running out of optimism to price in.
Here's how it's played out.
February 28: The War Starts
US and Israeli strikes kill Supreme Leader Khamenei and gut Iran's military infrastructure. Iran shuts the Strait of Hormuz in retaliation. Brent surges 51% in March alone — one of the largest single-month price jumps on record. The IEA calls it "the biggest energy security threat in history."
Early April: The First 'Deal'
On April 1, Trump claims Iran asked for a ceasefire. Iran calls the claim "false and baseless."
Days later, after threatening to destroy Iran's "whole civilization," Trump backs off. On April 8, Pakistan brokers a two-week ceasefire, with Iran agreeing to reopen Hormuz. Markets exhale. Hours later, Iran's Lavan Island refinery and Sirri Island crude facilities are struck by what Tehran calls an "enemy attack." The strait doesn't reopen.
April 11-12: Islamabad Talks Collapse
Vance, Witkoff and Kushner fly to Islamabad. After 21 hours of talks, Vance walks out saying Iran refused US terms. Trump announces he "no longer cares about negotiations." On April 13, the US launches a naval blockade of Iranian ports. Brent climbs back toward $120.
Mid-to-Late April: The Revolving Door
April 15: Trump says he wants the war to end "swiftly."
April 17: Iran briefly allows commercial vessels through Hormuz during a Lebanon ceasefire, then reimposed restrictions when the US refuses to lift its port blockade.
April 19: Trump calls new Pakistan talks Iran's "last chance" and threatens to target power plants and bridges.
Brent hits $126.41 on April 30, a four-year high, before pulling back to $114.
May 1: Iran's Proposal, Trump's Rejection
Iran sends an updated peace proposal to Pakistani mediators. Brent drops 2% to $108, WTI falls 3% to $101 on the news. Trump later says: "Iran wants to make a deal, but I'm not satisfied with it."
May 5-6: Project Freedom, Then the Pause
Trump launches "Project Freedom" — a Navy-led effort to escort stranded vessels through Hormuz. Iran attacks the UAE. Oil jumps 4% Monday, then falls 4% Tuesday after Hegseth confirms the ceasefire is "not over."
Then on Tuesday night, Trump suspends Project Freedom citing "great progress" in talks.
A Pakistani source tells Reuters that a one-page deal is close. Brent crashes 8.6% to $100.40, WTI drops 9.8% to $92.23 on Wednesday.

And perfectly on cue, Trump says today that Iran has one week to sign a deal or else he will unleash Operation Kid Rock Making Iran Great Again by Riding in a Motorcycle with Iranian Hot Girls Ditching their Hijabs for Bikinis and Shooting Machine Guns at the Koran.