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So Trump's "operation eagle freedom patriot lifted F250 with truck nuts" initiated today to open the Strait of Hormuz seems to be designed to get a response from Iran in order to claim that this is a new military threat that starts the 60 day clock over again on the war powers act. It also seems that IRGC is ready to fight and is tired of waiting for Trump to make the next move.
Iran sent bombs and drones to UAE and claims to have hit a US Navy vessel (US denies vessel got hit). US claims to have taken out 6 Iranian fast boats. Iran has targeted the Fujairah oil complex in UAE, which is a critical export hub that is past the Strait of Hormuz and allows UAE to get some exports out without having to cross the Strait.
Looks like the ceasefire is on the verge of collapse. Israel, Saudi and UAE have been urging Trump to resume attacks on Iran. I am not sure why Trump didn't do that over the weekend as the pattern has been to launch attacks after markets were closed.
There are a lot of options here. We could see a continuation of a slap fight with some tit for tat strikes, but neither side claiming that the ceasefire in null and void. We could see a resumption of fighting, but very limited compared to the outset of the war and then another ceasefire to pursue a peace deal. Or we could see the gloves come off and massive damage to oil infrastructure across the Gulf region with economic implications for at least the next decade. Or another Trump TACO with the US and Iran agreeing to new peace talks after trading accusations about ceasefire violations.
I think IRGC is tired of waiting and will force Trump's hand by bombing UAE. UAE leaving OPEC is a big blow to Iran because Iran will need price supports in any post war period. UAE has signaled that it wants to dump oil on the market and cash out before the world transitions to renewables.
I still think that Trump is going to resume fighting and try to take out the Iranian regime with another round of bombing. The US has too much fire power in the region to just keep up this slap fight with Iran. Also, oil markets and gas prices are going to start seeing supply shocks. The last oil tankers to leave the Gulf have now arrived in port and have their crude moving through refineries. Markets are finally going to see in real time what the cut off of crude from the Gulf looks like. So, for Trump, if oil prices and prices at the pump are going up no matter what happens, may as well take the opportunity to try and win the conflict outright.
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Precious Roy wrote:
I still think that Trump is going to resume fighting and try to take out the Iranian regime with another round of bombing. The US has too much fire power in the region to just keep up this slap fight with Iran. Also, oil markets and gas prices are going to start seeing supply shocks. The last oil tankers to leave the Gulf have now arrived in port and have their crude moving through refineries. Markets are finally going to see in real time what the cut off of crude from the Gulf looks like. So, for Trump, if oil prices and prices at the pump are going up no matter what happens, may as well take the opportunity to try and win the conflict outright.
Trump will do nothing, he's all testicles and no shaft. His next move is supposed to be total annihilation, remember? That 's what was on the table before the ceasefire and was only interrupted because Iran has "pretty much agreed to everything," remember that lie? Since they have apparently not agreed to anything, Trump is now forced to do what he said he would do or Taco yet again as we all know he will.
Blowing up more bridges and power plants will do nothing to stop Iran. They don't care. Iran already destroyed 16 US bases that the US lied about. (17 according to Iran) Now 62% oppose this war and even 1 single US casualty will be the end for Trump and he knows it.
You know what time it is.
This post was edited 7 minutes after it was posted.20 -
Precious Roy wrote:
So Trump's "operation eagle freedom patriot lifted F250 with truck nuts" initiated today to open the Strait of Hormuz seems to be designed to get a response from Iran in order to claim that this is a new military threat that starts the 60 day clock over again on the war powers act. It also seems that IRGC is ready to fight and is tired of waiting for Trump to make the next move.
Iran sent bombs and drones to UAE and claims to have hit a US Navy vessel (US denies vessel got hit). US claims to have taken out 6 Iranian fast boats. Iran has targeted the Fujairah oil complex in UAE, which is a critical export hub that is past the Strait of Hormuz and allows UAE to get some exports out without having to cross the Strait.
Looks like the ceasefire is on the verge of collapse. Israel, Saudi and UAE have been urging Trump to resume attacks on Iran. I am not sure why Trump didn't do that over the weekend as the pattern has been to launch attacks after markets were closed.
There are a lot of options here. We could see a continuation of a slap fight with some tit for tat strikes, but neither side claiming that the ceasefire in null and void. We could see a resumption of fighting, but very limited compared to the outset of the war and then another ceasefire to pursue a peace deal. Or we could see the gloves come off and massive damage to oil infrastructure across the Gulf region with economic implications for at least the next decade. Or another Trump TACO with the US and Iran agreeing to new peace talks after trading accusations about ceasefire violations.
I think IRGC is tired of waiting and will force Trump's hand by bombing UAE. UAE leaving OPEC is a big blow to Iran because Iran will need price supports in any post war period. UAE has signaled that it wants to dump oil on the market and cash out before the world transitions to renewables.
I still think that Trump is going to resume fighting and try to take out the Iranian regime with another round of bombing. The US has too much fire power in the region to just keep up this slap fight with Iran. Also, oil markets and gas prices are going to start seeing supply shocks. The last oil tankers to leave the Gulf have now arrived in port and have their crude moving through refineries. Markets are finally going to see in real time what the cut off of crude from the Gulf looks like. So, for Trump, if oil prices and prices at the pump are going up no matter what happens, may as well take the opportunity to try and win the conflict outright.
Trump and Hegseth cannot define "win" in this war. At best, it is blow up & kill many more targets. As you laid out, there is no scenario where global oil returns quickly to pre war supply and price. Your operation name is on the money.
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As in Gaza, Israel is targeting rescue workers in South Lebanon, killing more than 100 since March.
Lebanese rescue workers now wait 15 minutes after each strike before responding, the only way, they say, to stay alive long enough to reach the wounded amid Israel's implementation of its Gaza "double-tap" policy in Lebanon.
Israel Said It’s Applying the Gaza Model in Lebanon. This Is What the Devastation Looks Like.
An entire street is leveled. Houses and shops are flattened, including a popular cafe. This is what is left of the town of Bint Jbeil, just a couple of miles from the Israeli border, nearly two months after Israel relaunched its ground offensive in southern Lebanon.
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/\. Its like hoping Hitler wins this time.
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Tuesday tomorrow. Strait wont be open, trump wont be going boom boom.
Iran continues to win and humiliate muruca.
Taco.
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Have we found the weapons of mass destruction yet?
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Maersk confirmed that one of its ships transited the Strait of Hormuz. One down, one thousand nine hundred and ninety nine to go.
There are reports of lots of US jets flying around the Gulf, but today's slap fight has not progressed any further.
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X
“Iran better be careful.
If Iran doesn’t surrender in 24 hours, Donald Trump is going to give them two weeks to surrender.”140 -
Newname wrote:
As in Gaza, Israel is targeting rescue workers in South Lebanon, killing more than 100 since March.
Lebanese rescue workers now wait 15 minutes after each strike before responding, the only way, they say, to stay alive long enough to reach the wounded amid Israel's implementation of its Gaza "double-tap" policy in Lebanon.
Israel Said It’s Applying the Gaza Model in Lebanon. This Is What the Devastation Looks Like.
An entire street is leveled. Houses and shops are flattened, including a popular cafe. This is what is left of the town of Bint Jbeil, just a couple of miles from the Israeli border, nearly two months after Israel relaunched its ground offensive in southern Lebanon.
I just read Pity the Nation by Robert Fisk and can't believe I had never heard of the Qana massacre. Israel shelled a UN compound full of refugees in Southern Lebanon resutling in gruesome murders of innocent civilians. Bill Clinton ran cover for them. 30 years ago and literally nothing has changed.
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rock on... wrote:
/\. Its like hoping Hitler wins this time.
Actually, no - since Hitler in this case is Trump.
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TACO coming up right away.
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pupil3142 wrote:
Tuesday tomorrow. Strait wont be open, trump wont be going boom boom.
Iran continues to win and humiliate muruca.
Taco.
Tuesday TODAY. Strait ISNT be open, trump ISNT be going boom boom.
Iran continues to win and humiliate muruca.
Taco.Update; project freedom has maybe sailed a destroyer into the gulf. thats quite brave and seemingly pointless. two us ships have probably exited the straits. thats meaningless.
7 gunboats maybe destroyed, only 2993 left then.
Taco continues to destroy world economy whilst losing to Iran.
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This is a good opportunity to build local agriculture, local business, and local power generation so that we aren't as subject to the global supply chain. But oil companies, mega corporations, and big ag don't want that.
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"We have not even begun" - Iran.
So much winning.
This post was edited 1 minute after it was posted.30 -
This quoted post has been removed.
FFS
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riggsss wrote:
This quoted post has been removed.
FFS
FFS in a transgender context stands for Facial Feminization Surgery. ????
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