I actually did compare the 2 Villanova runners who needed no introduction. I was a bit disappointed with Vicki Huber who was pretty well known. Her 5,000 PR was only 15:34. Rather pedestrian. Now, O'Sullivan is a different story. She ran 4:17 and 14:41 like 25 years ago. But then you look at her 9:19 WR which she held for 10 years. Didn't Jane run 9:17? That really diminishes her 9:19.
Sure, but the 2 mile was/is rarely run for international women and O’Sullivan’s 3000m PR was 8:21, equivalent to 8:58 2 mile. She also ran pre-super shoes; she likely would have been running 8:16 for 3000m/14:20s or even 14:10s in the 5000m today.
Here 8:21 is much stronger. In fact it would rank today just outside the current top all-time top 10 behind Gidey's 8:20:27.
Actually I’m not really sure anymore, maybe this year’s XC sqaud woudl lose against 2023’s if Kelsey Chmiel would’ve been healthy. So nevermind its not the best squad ever. I’m being dramatique.
The 2023 NC State squad was not that great. They won, sure, but only by 1 pt. over NAU.
they ran without Chmiel that day which would have dropped their score by 40 points give or take
Actually I’m not really sure anymore, maybe this year’s XC sqaud woudl lose against 2023’s if Kelsey Chmiel would’ve been healthy. So nevermind its not the best squad ever. I’m being dramatique.
I am not sure why all the interest in this but head to head the current squad is probably comparable to the 23 squad (including Chmiel) at 1 and 2, but better at 3, 4, 5 (note this assumes at the fitness Tyynismaa and Bush had that season. At top fitness the 23 squad over was probably better).
This post was edited 16 minutes after it was posted.
"I’m also not convinced that this NC State squad is the best team ever. While yes, once their times are charted, they look amazing, they’re not even a certainty in winning this year’s championships. It still appears to be a pretty close race."
Like the discussion about the BYU squad a few months ago, the fact that they may or may not win this year has nothing to do with whether this squad is better than a prior squad. Competition this year also seems better.
This post was edited 30 seconds after it was posted.
The 2023 NC State squad was not that great. They won, sure, but only by 1 pt. over NAU.
they ran without Chmiel that day which would have dropped their score by 40 points give or take
A full strength squad in 2023 would have included Tuohy, Chmiel, Tyynismma, Bush, and Leah Stephens/Brook Rauber. The top three would be slightly better than 2025, and the four and five are probably a wash. The 2026 squad might be better if NC State can return everyone with eligibility.
they ran without Chmiel that day which would have dropped their score by 40 points give or take
A full strength squad in 2023 would have included Tuohy, Chmiel, Tyynismma, Bush, and Leah Stephens/Brook Rauber. The top three would be slightly better than 2025, and the four and five are probably a wash. The 2026 squad might be better if NC State can return everyone with eligibility.
I already showed ‘2025NCState’ is 86pnts under ‘2024NCState w/o Chmiel’.
A full strength squad in 2023 would have included Tuohy, Chmiel, Tyynismma, Bush, and Leah Stephens/Brook Rauber. The top three would be slightly better than 2025, and the four and five are probably a wash. The 2026 squad might be better if NC State can return everyone with eligibility.
I already showed ‘2025NCState’ is 86pnts under ‘2024NCState w/o Chmiel’.
Edit, I already showed ‘2025NCState’ is 86pnts under ‘2023NCState w/o Chmiel’.
Soon we may want to start talking about how a very muddy, water-logged course might affect prospects. There's supposed to be a large rain accumulation on Thursday, with rain continuing almost all of Friday. The individual race, e.g., might come down to whether Jane or Doris has better form and tactics for such conditions.
The probability of rain over the two days prior has been increasing, but it’s dropped to ‘only’ ~1inch from ~1.5inch.
Good for NC State (and ND) that they had practice on a muddy slippery course at ACC’s.
Soon we may want to start talking about how a very muddy, water-logged course might affect prospects. There's supposed to be a large rain accumulation on Thursday, with rain continuing almost all of Friday. The individual race, e.g., might come down to whether Jane or Doris has better form and tactics for such conditions.
The probability of rain over the two days prior has been increasing, but it’s dropped to ‘only’ ~1inch from ~1.5inch.
Good for NC State (and ND) that they had practice on a muddy slippery course at ACC’s.
"Entire course irrigated and graded for drainage" - I'd guess more likely a little soft than muddy.
Course Overview Gans Creek is the home of the Mizzou men's and women's cross country teams, the Gans Creek Cross Country Course opened on September 27, 2019,...
Agree with a previous poster that it’s impossible to compare today’s women’s teams to Villanova in the ‘80s. Competition today is far, far, far more intense in women’s running (not limited to just the pro ranks.)
That being said, I’m also not convinced that this NC State squad is the best team ever. While yes, once their times are charted, they look amazing, they’re not even a certainty in winning this year’s championships. It still appears to be a pretty close race.
This is it in a nutshell comparing to the teams competing back then in a far less competitive environment.
The thing that really had me sit up and take notice was seeing what NC State’s 4th did at Nutty, and I subsequently started the “Juggernaut” thread, and found out, after further research, that Michalak was raised at 7000ft, and started running cross country in the third grade.
Division I Cross Country10/22/2025 8:21am EDT7 months ago
After losing the Championship in 2024 to to BYU, a (currently) 21 page thread was dedicated to the NC State women rebuild:https://www.letsrun.com/forum/flat_read.php?thread=12603190The reload has splendidly turned them into t...
Well, you actually have a point earlier about New Mexico in 2015. According to Wikipedia, they have the lowest team score in the modern era, by quite a significant margin too.
Will be interesting to see what this year’s championship winning team scores.
It is very interesting that of all the potential teams the copycat troll picked, he chose New Mexico 2015, for although we may not have their LACCTiC data, we have something even better! New Mexico 2015 ran Natty’s that year on the same course that NC State ran Conference this year (Tom Olgovie mentioned the long history of that course on the ACC broadcast.)
It is very interesting that of all the potential teams the copycat troll picked, he chose New Mexico 2015, for although we may not have their LACCTiC data, we have something even better! New Mexico 2015 ran Natty’s that year on the same course that NC State ran Conference this year (Tom Olgovie mentioned the long history of that course on the ACC broadcast.)
There are some interesting coincidences comparing the between New Mexico at the 2015 Natty’s and NC State at 2025 ACC’s. The top finisher from each of the respective teams was a steepler. Both races were on the exact same course, although the course was muddy for NC State, so maybe they are a bit handicapped in this comparison.
There was much at stake for both teams, being the National Championship for New Mexico, and the Conference Championship for NC State.
Here is a list of the finishing times for each team’s top five. 2015 NewMex……2025 NC State CF 19:48…………….AN 19:13 AW 19:53………….. GH 19:16 RA 20:07…………….HG 19:24 CT 20:07…………….HG 19:35 MR 20:17…………….SE 19:45
What we see is that the finishing time for all of NC State’s top five was faster than New Mexico’s fastest finisher! That is a rout, which is quite convincing evidence NC State is the more potent team.
Actually I’m not really sure anymore, maybe this year’s XC sqaud woudl lose against 2023’s if Kelsey Chmiel would’ve been healthy. So nevermind its not the best squad ever. I’m being dramatique.
I am not sure why all the interest in this but head to head the current squad is probably comparable to the 23 squad (including Chmiel) at 1 and 2, but better at 3, 4, 5 (note this assumes at the fitness Tyynismaa and Bush had that season. At top fitness the 23 squad over was probably better).
Absolutely agree with you.
And in a best-case scenario with everyone healthy and running well (i.e. Chmiel uninjured, Tuohy a couple of places up/not ill, and Tyynismaa uninjured), the 2023 group looks to top out near 70 points. That still trails the 2018 Colorado team at 65 and the 2015 New Mexico team at 49.
It highlights just how rare and difficult those historic low scores really are.
I am not sure why all the interest in this but head to head the current squad is probably comparable to the 23 squad (including Chmiel) at 1 and 2, but better at 3, 4, 5 (note this assumes at the fitness Tyynismaa and Bush had that season. At top fitness the 23 squad over was probably better).
Absolutely agree with you.
And in a best-case scenario with everyone healthy and running well (i.e. Chmiel uninjured, Tuohy a couple of places up/not ill, and Tyynismaa uninjured), the 2023 group looks to top out near 70 points. That still trails the 2018 Colorado team at 65 and the 2015 New Mexico team at 49.
It highlights just how rare and difficult those historic low scores really are.
Hopefully you realize that ‘all-time low scores’ does not by itself define the all-time most potent, because the competition being faced obvioudly factors into the scores that day. Which is why the idea behind the TiC rating is quite nice.
And in a best-case scenario with everyone healthy and running well (i.e. Chmiel uninjured, Tuohy a couple of places up/not ill, and Tyynismaa uninjured), the 2023 group looks to top out near 70 points. That still trails the 2018 Colorado team at 65 and the 2015 New Mexico team at 49.
It highlights just how rare and difficult those historic low scores really are.
Hopefully you realize that ‘all-time low scores’ does not by itself define the all-time most potent, because the competition being faced obvioudly factors into the scores that day. Which is why the idea behind the TiC rating is quite nice.
Of course, impossible to compare head-to-head with all the variables (super-shoes, courses change, mud/snow/dry footing, less competitive field.)
A 15:30 in 2025 is probably worth a 15:50 in the 2010s.
Actually I’m not really sure anymore, maybe this year’s XC sqaud woudl lose against 2023’s if Kelsey Chmiel would’ve been healthy. So nevermind its not the best squad ever. I’m being dramatique.
I am not sure why all the interest in this but head to head the current squad is probably comparable to the 23 squad (including Chmiel) at 1 and 2, but better at 3, 4, 5 (note this assumes at the fitness Tyynismaa and Bush had that season. At top fitness the 23 squad over was probably better).
Yoi previously said ‘2023 NC State with Chmiel’ would be ~40pnts better. And I showed ‘2025 NC State’ was 86pnts better than ‘2023 NC State without Chmiel’
Notice in the comparison below I give peak 2023 season fitness of 15:11 to Tuohy (who only ran a 15:16 at Natty’s), and a 15:31 for Chmiel (even though her last race at ACC’s that year was a 15:33).
Hopefully you realize that ‘all-time low scores’ does not by itself define the all-time most potent, because the competition being faced obvioudly factors into the scores that day. Which is why the idea behind the TiC rating is quite nice.
Of course, impossible to compare head-to-head with all the variables (super-shoes, courses change, mud/snow/dry footing, less competitive field.)
A 15:30 in 2025 is probably worth a 15:50 in the 2010s.
Super shoes have less effect in spiked-up cross country.
they ran without Chmiel that day which would have dropped their score by 40 points give or take
A full strength squad in 2023 would have included Tuohy, Chmiel, Tyynismma, Bush, and Leah Stephens/Brook Rauber. The top three would be slightly better than 2025, and the four and five are probably a wash. The 2026 squad might be better if NC State can return everyone with eligibility.
So what does all this say about he NAU team that lost by one point?? Strongest ever team conversation?
