Since we're doing state predictions, I might as well give my take on the 4a state race. The way I see it, there are 3 people who are the frontrunners for the individual title: Charlie Goss of BK, Luke Athay of IF, and Preston Dopp of TF. The reason for this is that Goss has the best time and speed rating of all 4a runners -15:36 and a 176(I think) speed rating at the city meet, Athay and Dopp are the only two 4a runners to have beaten him this season(besides a few of his teammates at the Jimmy Driscoll season opener). Goss and Athay are 1-1 vs each other this season, Goss is 3-1 vs Dopp, and Athay is 2-0 vs Dopp this season.
That being said, both Dopp and Athay have beaten Goss in the last 2 races they've run together respectively(Athay beat Goss by 8 seconds at Nike Portland, and Dopp beat Goss by 7 seconds at Bugtown). All 3 won their respective districts, with Athay and Dopp dominating their races with 30-second wins, and Goss having a pretty comfortable win at his race as well. It would have been interesting to see him in the 5a race, as I think it's pretty reasonable to say that he (and the entire BK team for that matter) probably wasn't running at 100% effort due to how bad their district is (this could also probably apply to Athay and Dopp too though).
Looking at Goss's best races (Dani Bates, Boise City)along with his district race, it seems like he runs his best when he sits behind someone else and tries to out-kick them. Athay and Dopp(as seen by their district performances) are probably more comfortable being front-runners. Wouldn't be surprised to see either of them take it out quickly, and for Goss to be right behind them.
Besides those 3, there are a few other potential dark horses for the individual title are Luke Visser of Preston, Nathan Roche of Sandpoint, and Russell Frampton of TF. Visser and Roche ran some solid times this year but Visser struggled at Bob Conley and Roche hasn't run against any real 4a competitors this year(besides Visser at the battle for the 509 and his district meet). Frampton has also run some solid times this year but is 0-3 vs Goss and 0-2 vs Athay this season, and Dopp has been pretty consistently beating him for the Latter half of the season. I definitely wouldn't count any of these guys out though.
As for the team race, it's a toss-up between BK, IF, and Burley. I think IF takes third, as 2 of their top 6 guys didn't run in their district race, leaving them without a clear 5th man that can compete with BK's and Burley's. BK has the better team on paper, but Burley had almost 5 guys in front of BK's 3rd at Bob Firman and had a spread of only 30 seconds at Bob Conley. Even if Goss gets top 5, if Burley can place all 5 of their guys close together and in front of BK's 3rd 4th or 5th guys, they're gonna be tough to beat.
