Oil prices hit a ceiling of $110 WTI and $125 Brent and have fallen back to $105/$115 from the peak yesterday. US inflation came in hot at 3.5% for March.
Trump is getting briefed today on military options from CENTCOM commanders. Israel's defense minister said that Israel may be close to resuming attacks on Iran.
There is now a lot of debate about how long Iran can go without having to shut in production. And this is just an oil field engineering analysis and not an economic analysis. The back of the napkin calculation has been based on Iran's daily oil output and Iran's known storage capacity, which is mostly on Kharg Island. It is also based on the assumption that the US blockade is 100% effective. That analysis gets to the conclusion that Iran will have to start shutting in production very soon. This is countered by the claim that Iran can convert a good bit of oil for domestic consumption, Iran has more storage available in tankers in the Gulf, Iran has been able to evade the blockade with shadow fleet vessels that sail under fake flags of origin and use spoofing to evade detection and that Iran is currently doing a well managed and gradual process of shutting in production that will allow it to hold out for as much as two months.
All of that could be moot if the US targets Iran's oil infrastructure. If Iran has to quickly shut in production due to the US blowing up Kharg Island pipelines and pumps, that could cause permanent damage to the oilfields. And Iran will bomb GCC oil infrastructure and have the Houthis block the Red Sea shipping lanes. That is a $200 a barrel doomsday scenario that would take years to get oil prices back to under $100. But Iran's economy would be decimated and the country would probably end up looking like Libya or worse.
Why do you call the $110 and $125 a ceiling? US/Israel is run by fanatics, ideologues. They are going to do some damaging stuff and I suspect prices will soar far higher. $200 -- could be
Because that is the highest prices hit yesterday before falling back. It is also about as high as oil prices have gone during the war with a prior peak early in April in about the same range. That price point may be where a lot of third world buyers of oil and refined products just cannot afford to buy and will have to just do without. IEA has already warned of future declines in oil demand as countries move to renewables and even rev up coal plants again due to how unreliable oil has become.
And I do say that $200 a barrel is possible if everyone starts bombing each other's oil infrastructure. But a blockade alone probably won't get there as pricing levels will curtail demand. And the longer this goes, economic contraction will also curtail demand.
Do you have more specific data? Like how many Indigenous Jews vs foreign European Jews are a more important distinction. Also Zio Naxi terrorists Jews vs religious Jews is important.
That's just one poll of Israeli Jews (not further id'ed). More than 1/2 would like to expel the non Jewish Palestinians from Israel proper. Says much
What if white Americans were polled on if they would like all non whites expelled from US? I am sure it would get some support but dear God I hope nowhere near 50%+. It might on Letsrun
The Jews who were on this land during biblical times were mostly ethnically cleansed by the Romans between 70 and 135 AD. They were pretty much entirely eradicated by the 4th century. Different groups have occupied, conquered or been kicked off the land for centuries. The Israeli claim to the land is just as valid as anyone else’s.
Trump is now lobbying congress for a war powers authorization. Mike Johnson told reporters that the US is not currently at war with Iran and does not think that a war powers resolution is necessary given that there currently is not "kinetic military bombing, firing or anything like that." Getting a war authorization through congress would require one of the strangest coalitions in US history. DNC corporate Dems who gobble up AIPAC donations would have to cross over and vote with Trump loyalist and the few remaining neo-cons (Lindsey Graham for example). A lot of M#GA pundits are bailing on Trump's Iran war with Tucker Carlson leading the way. That has a lot of Republicans in a pickle on voting for authorization and facing getting picked off during midterms if (and when) the Iran war goes from hot mess to complete global disaster.
If Johnson holds off a vote, there could potentially be a constitutional crisis if the courts get involved, go against Trump and Trump ignores the courts (Lincoln did it when he suspended habeas corpus. Actually, there is no doubt Trump will ignore the courts. It is just a question of whether SCOTUS can concoct something to get Trump around the war powers act. Actually, there is no doubt SCOTUS will come up with something. Never mind.
Per riggsss post, republicans are also. Hard to disagree given that 80% of them are still on board when Trump constantly spews hate of immigrants, takes asylum away from non-whites and extends it to whites.
Sh&t. Trump is going to do it. US just delivered a huge shipment of arms to Israel. Reports of anti aircraft fire around Tehran as drones are collecting targeting data. US forces are in the final phases of preparing for a new round of bombing to target Iran’s oil and domestic energy infrastructure. Iran is prepared to counter with strike on GCC oil infrastructure and US bases. Hegseth says the war powers act clock stopped when the ceasefire went into effect. That would give Trump until May 7 to launch new strikes.
Sh$t. Sh$t. Sh$t. If this happens, it will be years before things are back to anything close to normal.
UAE ordered its citizens to leave Iran, Iraq and Kuwait. US has hypersonic missiles in the Middle East for the first time. US airlift of supplies from the UK and Europe continues at a very high pace.
Iran has sent to Pakistan a proposal to resume peace negotiations. Iran's proposal does not address nuclear enrichment or proxies.
Moderates in Iran are ready to cut a deal and see that as a win for Iran. Moderates fear the economic consequences of the conflict and escalation and want to end the conflict. Hardliners want to resume fighting and think that the US will be forced to abandon the conflict if further fighting causes energy shortages and markets crash. Iran's hardliners do not believe that the US can be trusted to do a deal and think that escalation will harm the US enough economically that Trump will have no choice but to unilaterally end the conflict and turn tail.
Iran has attempted to shift exports of oil and imports/exports of all other goods to rail and truck routes to China via Pakistan and Russia via the Caspian sea and land routes through Azerbaijan.
There also has been talk from Iran that they are not happy with Pakistan's work as mediator and want other countries to participate in talks in order to have some guarantors that a peace treaty will be honored. Israel has not honored its cease fire agreement in Lebanon and keeps demolishing civilian buildings and fighting with Hezbollah.
If there is going to be more fighting, it will happen this weekend. Trump's theory about the ceasefire ending combat and stopping the clock on war powers resolution would give him until May 7.
UAE ordered its citizens to leave Iran, Iraq and Kuwait. US has hypersonic missiles in the Middle East for the first time. US airlift of supplies from the UK and Europe continues at a very high pace.
Iran has sent to Pakistan a proposal to resume peace negotiations. Iran's proposal does not address nuclear enrichment or proxies.
Moderates in Iran are ready to cut a deal and see that as a win for Iran. Moderates fear the economic consequences of the conflict and escalation and want to end the conflict. Hardliners want to resume fighting and think that the US will be forced to abandon the conflict if further fighting causes energy shortages and markets crash. Iran's hardliners do not believe that the US can be trusted to do a deal and think that escalation will harm the US enough economically that Trump will have no choice but to unilaterally end the conflict and turn tail.
Iran has attempted to shift exports of oil and imports/exports of all other goods to rail and truck routes to China via Pakistan and Russia via the Caspian sea and land routes through Azerbaijan.
There also has been talk from Iran that they are not happy with Pakistan's work as mediator and want other countries to participate in talks in order to have some guarantors that a peace treaty will be honored. Israel has not honored its cease fire agreement in Lebanon and keeps demolishing civilian buildings and fighting with Hezbollah.
If there is going to be more fighting, it will happen this weekend. Trump's theory about the ceasefire ending combat and stopping the clock on war powers resolution would give him until May 7.
Israel's only goal is the destruction of Iran as a cohesive, strong rival in the ME
US admin has shown no ability to stand up to Israel. The attack is coming. This week-end is a good bet.
Israeli police arrested a man accused of attacking a nun on Tuesday in Jerusalem’s Old City, in an incident that comes amid ongoing tensions around the status of Christians in
UAE ordered its citizens to leave Iran, Iraq and Kuwait. US has hypersonic missiles in the Middle East for the first time. US airlift of supplies from the UK and Europe continues at a very high pace.
Iran has sent to Pakistan a proposal to resume peace negotiations. Iran's proposal does not address nuclear enrichment or proxies.
Moderates in Iran are ready to cut a deal and see that as a win for Iran. Moderates fear the economic consequences of the conflict and escalation and want to end the conflict. Hardliners want to resume fighting and think that the US will be forced to abandon the conflict if further fighting causes energy shortages and markets crash. Iran's hardliners do not believe that the US can be trusted to do a deal and think that escalation will harm the US enough economically that Trump will have no choice but to unilaterally end the conflict and turn tail.
Iran has attempted to shift exports of oil and imports/exports of all other goods to rail and truck routes to China via Pakistan and Russia via the Caspian sea and land routes through Azerbaijan.
There also has been talk from Iran that they are not happy with Pakistan's work as mediator and want other countries to participate in talks in order to have some guarantors that a peace treaty will be honored. Israel has not honored its cease fire agreement in Lebanon and keeps demolishing civilian buildings and fighting with Hezbollah.
If there is going to be more fighting, it will happen this weekend. Trump's theory about the ceasefire ending combat and stopping the clock on war powers resolution would give him until May 7.
Israel's only goal is the destruction of Iran as a cohesive, strong rival in the ME
US admin has shown no ability to stand up to Israel. The attack is coming. This week-end is a good bet.
the only goal of hamas and hezb and iran is the total destruction of jewish Israel.
so it sounds like israel is right to attack them, out of self defense. Do we agree?
look up 7 mountains mandate. the goal is control family, religion, education, media, arts and entertainment, business, and government. so whenever you hear them talking about how kids get taught in school, who owns what networks or studios, etc., they are trying to control those institutions.
my understanding is skydance went into such debt (~$80b) to do both paramount/CBS and then time warner/HBO their credit rating got downgraded to junk status. they have run off viewers with their decisions on the evening news, 60 minutes, and colbert. you think about it 5 seconds and it makes more sense as like "musk buys twitter" -- a political effort but moneyloser -- than as good business. that and any functioning government would have blocked 2 mergers in a row like that as an antitrust problem.
Trump is now lobbying congress for a war powers authorization. Mike Johnson told reporters that the US is not currently at war with Iran and does not think that a war powers resolution is necessary given that there currently is not "kinetic military bombing, firing or anything like that." Getting a war authorization through congress would require one of the strangest coalitions in US history. DNC corporate Dems who gobble up AIPAC donations would have to cross over and vote with Trump loyalist and the few remaining neo-cons (Lindsey Graham for example). A lot of M#GA pundits are bailing on Trump's Iran war with Tucker Carlson leading the way. That has a lot of Republicans in a pickle on voting for authorization and facing getting picked off during midterms if (and when) the Iran war goes from hot mess to complete global disaster.
If Johnson holds off a vote, there could potentially be a constitutional crisis if the courts get involved, go against Trump and Trump ignores the courts (Lincoln did it when he suspended habeas corpus. Actually, there is no doubt Trump will ignore the courts. It is just a question of whether SCOTUS can concoct something to get Trump around the war powers act. Actually, there is no doubt SCOTUS will come up with something. Never mind.
the iranians did some drone and missile attacks post-ceasefire, and have fired on or seized shipping near the strait. we are blockading their ports. how is this not hostile?
put different, the reason we "can't leave" is we're still sitting there guns pointed at each other. that's a ceasefire in name only.
Funny how the matrix makes men go through a lengthy process of hoops and bounds if they want to join the military, with many not getting the opportunity they want. But if there's a large scale war, then suddenly it's mandatory for men to join the war and risk their lives. Time to stop conforming to the media driven, carefully crafted propaganda and rebel against the evil and grooming matrix.
Help us build the best running shoe review site for a chance to win a LetsRun t-shirt.Help us build the best running shoe review site for a chance to win one of 10 LetsRun t-shirts.
