Down goes the Dow

Yeah, had a ski trip scheduled for this week, but canceled it because of conditions. Instead, I’m now awaiting my Cologuard test kit😱

Thanks Sally. I still have quite a bit of energy; at 71 and retired I just have to direct it at something other than just running. I am pretty sure I was one of the oldest on the hill Sunday. And even qualified for the greatest discount. Is that a good thing? :-)

Well, got another 10%, done with it for the day. Something tells me I should have gotten a bit more.

The pooping on a stick is easy. 😂

Just checked the conditions at Bogus Basin, about a 30 minute drive from Boise Downtown:

“Today it will be sunny with a high near 51°F and calm south wind. Tonight will be partly cloudy with a low around 36°F. Variable conditions exist, please watch for caution signs and marked-off areas.”

Well I’m glad I held half of the XLE. Wonder if energy still has a ways to go? Would think (haven’t looked at data) that energy prices dip annually towards spring and summer? Disregarding macro events like now

reminder that the US and all of the rich world will soon start shrinking in population. And vast parts of the country will empty out. What does this mean for capitalism and investing? No one knows or can know. Can't be all good though. Capitalism depends on ever growing demand, and with fewer people every year....that's a headwind. Breeze or gale is the question.

Capitalism doesn’t depend on that, but globalism does. The fallacy of our current leadership.

go on....

I think housing in the second-tier cities/burbs is going to be in for a little something.

looks like in a year 30-year rates have moved from 2.7 to 4.4

At least that will cool off the inflation numbers.

Pretty clear it is a failed model. Done nothing but put this country in a tail spin: endless wars, failing infrastructure, growing gig economy (lack of well paying jobs), financialization of stock market, Fed manipulation of markets, Congress more than willing to pass the buck to future generations, decline of American living standard, drugs and perversion rampant, lack of community, decline of the family, city bosses using minorities for political power, silly theories of trannys and racial equity, borders irrelevant, landfills full of cheap Chinese crap….Need I go on…..

That’s what happens when you erode the self-worth of a nation for a dollar.

Anyway Larry Fink said globalism is over, as if I would ever listen to him. But if true, the sooner the better for the average American. Not so much for the globalists who have had a free ride for decades.

ok I get you.

the flies in your ointment are the ever-rising living standards in the USA during the past 40 years. The opposite of a tailspin. But you'd say it's fake not real and we'd go around in circles. But I hear you.

I would say living standard is more than possessions. Perhaps a better choice of wording would be quality of living. Having true productivity, rather than manipulated activity. Can’t help feeling we have latched on to something without substance. Fun versus happiness, for example. Anyway, just my thoughts….

yeah it's tricky though, isn't it? I suspect that almost everyone starts to get pessimistic once they pass age 50 or 60, thinking the good times have gone away. An endless cycle of lost youthful optimism.

I'm a child of the 1970s - that's what imprinted on me - so I have a bit of a different feel...even 10 year old me could tell that the 70s were a terrible economic and politican decade and we've climbed a long way out of it. I draw on that for moral support sometimes.

But in my mid-50s I too am starting the despairing 'america in decline' slide. I can feel it.

SP500 now down just 5.2% year to date, and a little less with the dividend thrown in. Noise.

Weird place where in a down year for stocks, 60/40 funds are doing worse than pure stock funds. That's not supposed to happen.

I read 2022 is one of the worst 3-month periods for bonds ever. I guess that's what you get when you go from the economy crashing to wild growth with the Fed STILL in stimulus mode.

I feel like Buffett—I want to invest more, I just don’t see anything sufficiently appealing to assume the risk. Only I don’t have enough money to buy an oil company.

Held off again today, this has been a good week so far, everything is good—except for BASF, of course😡.

Don't despair too much about the bad start of the year (Jan - Feb) for stocks and bonds. Out of the 10 worst starts in history for stocks, 78% of the time stocks ended the year with positive returns for the entire year. With the top 10 worst starts of the year for bonds, only 22% of the time did bonds end up overall negative for the entire year.

I would say for me it is cynicism rather than pessimism. I am optimistic that most of what I see as nonsense will be washed away as untenable.