i guess this is the precious roy argument in more detail;
𝐖𝐇𝐘 𝐈𝐑𝐀𝐍 𝐂𝐀𝐍𝐍𝐎𝐓 𝐒𝐈𝐌𝐏𝐋𝐘 “𝐓𝐔𝐑𝐍 𝐎𝐅𝐅” 𝐈𝐓𝐒 𝐎𝐈𝐋 𝐖𝐄𝐋𝐋𝐒. 𝐓𝐇𝐄 𝐍𝐄𝐖 𝐘𝐎𝐑𝐊 𝐏𝐎𝐒𝐓 𝐄𝐗𝐏𝐋𝐀𝐈𝐍𝐒 𝐓𝐇𝐄 𝐓𝐄𝐂𝐇𝐍𝐈𝐂𝐀𝐋 𝐂𝐀𝐓𝐀𝐒𝐓𝐑𝐎𝐏𝐇𝐄 𝐓𝐄𝐇𝐑𝐀𝐍 𝐈𝐒 𝐀𝐁𝐎𝐔𝐓 𝐓𝐎 𝐈𝐍𝐅𝐋𝐈𝐂𝐓 𝐎𝐍 𝐈𝐓𝐒𝐄𝐋𝐅.
From the NY Post, citing Bloomberg satellite imagery and four energy-industry analysts:
“𝘔𝘢𝘴𝘴𝘪𝘷𝘦 𝘴𝘶𝘱𝘦𝘳𝘵𝘢𝘯𝘬𝘦𝘳𝘴 𝘩𝘢𝘷𝘦 𝘣𝘦𝘦𝘯 𝘴𝘱𝘰𝘵𝘵𝘦𝘥 𝘢𝘵 𝘒𝘩𝘢𝘳𝘨 𝘐𝘴𝘭𝘢𝘯𝘥, 𝘢𝘯 𝘰𝘪𝘭-𝘤𝘳𝘪𝘵𝘪𝘤𝘢𝘭 𝘩𝘶𝘣 𝘸𝘩𝘪𝘤𝘩 𝘤𝘰𝘯𝘵𝘳𝘰𝘭𝘴 𝘳𝘰𝘶𝘨𝘩𝘭𝘺 90% 𝘰𝘧 𝘐𝘳𝘢𝘯𝘪𝘢𝘯 𝘤𝘳𝘶𝘥𝘦 𝘰𝘪𝘭 𝘦𝘹𝘱𝘰𝘳𝘵𝘴. 𝘞𝘪𝘵𝘩 𝘯𝘰𝘸𝘩𝘦𝘳𝘦 𝘧𝘰𝘳 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘤𝘳𝘶𝘥𝘦 𝘤𝘢𝘳𝘳𝘪𝘦𝘳𝘴 𝘵𝘰 𝘨𝘰 𝘸𝘪𝘵𝘩 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘜.𝘚. 𝘣𝘭𝘰𝘤𝘬𝘢𝘥𝘦 𝘢𝘳𝘰𝘶𝘯𝘥 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘎𝘶𝘭𝘧 𝘰𝘧 𝘖𝘮𝘢𝘯, 𝘦𝘹𝘱𝘦𝘳𝘵𝘴 𝘴𝘢𝘺 𝘪𝘵 𝘪𝘴 𝘢 𝘴𝘪𝘨𝘯 𝘵𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘳𝘦𝘨𝘪𝘮𝘦 𝘪𝘴 𝘶𝘴𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘷𝘦𝘴𝘴𝘦𝘭𝘴 𝘢𝘴 𝘧𝘭𝘰𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘴𝘵𝘰𝘳𝘢𝘨𝘦. 𝘐𝘳𝘢𝘯 𝘩𝘢𝘴 𝘳𝘦𝘱𝘦𝘢𝘵𝘦𝘥𝘭𝘺 𝘵𝘳𝘪𝘦𝘥 𝘵𝘰 𝘱𝘶𝘴𝘩 𝘪𝘵𝘴 𝘴𝘩𝘪𝘱𝘴 𝘵𝘩𝘳𝘰𝘶𝘨𝘩 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘜.𝘚. 𝘯𝘢𝘷𝘢𝘭 𝘣𝘭𝘰𝘤𝘬𝘢𝘥𝘦, 𝘣𝘶𝘵 𝘪𝘵𝘴 𝘴𝘩𝘪𝘱𝘴 𝘢𝘳𝘦 𝘳𝘰𝘶𝘵𝘪𝘯𝘦𝘭𝘺 𝘪𝘯𝘵𝘦𝘳𝘤𝘦𝘱𝘵𝘦𝘥, 𝘸𝘪𝘵𝘩 𝘴𝘪𝘹 𝘵𝘢𝘯𝘬𝘦𝘳𝘴 𝘧𝘰𝘳𝘤𝘦𝘥 𝘵𝘰 𝘵𝘶𝘳𝘯 𝘣𝘢𝘤𝘬 𝘪𝘯 𝘳𝘦𝘤𝘦𝘯𝘵 𝘥𝘢𝘺𝘴.”
“𝘛𝘩𝘦 𝘊𝘳𝘪𝘵𝘪𝘤𝘢𝘭 𝘛𝘩𝘳𝘦𝘢𝘵𝘴 𝘗𝘳𝘰𝘫𝘦𝘤𝘵 𝘢𝘵 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘈𝘮𝘦𝘳𝘪𝘤𝘢𝘯 𝘌𝘯𝘵𝘦𝘳𝘱𝘳𝘪𝘴𝘦 𝘐𝘯𝘴𝘵𝘪𝘵𝘶𝘵𝘦 𝘦𝘴𝘵𝘪𝘮𝘢𝘵𝘦𝘥 𝘵𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘛𝘦𝘩𝘳𝘢𝘯 𝘭𝘪𝘬𝘦𝘭𝘺 𝘩𝘢𝘴 𝘶𝘯𝘵𝘪𝘭 𝘈𝘱𝘳𝘪𝘭 29 𝘣𝘦𝘧𝘰𝘳𝘦 𝘪𝘵𝘴 𝘰𝘯𝘴𝘩𝘰𝘳𝘦 𝘴𝘵𝘰𝘳𝘢𝘨𝘦 𝘧𝘢𝘤𝘪𝘭𝘪𝘵𝘪𝘦𝘴 𝘢𝘳𝘦 𝘧𝘪𝘭𝘭𝘦𝘥. 𝘐𝘳𝘢𝘯 𝘩𝘢𝘴 𝘢𝘣𝘰𝘶𝘵 122 𝘮𝘪𝘭𝘭𝘪𝘰𝘯 𝘣𝘢𝘳𝘳𝘦𝘭𝘴 𝘰𝘧 𝘴𝘵𝘰𝘳𝘢𝘨𝘦 𝘴𝘱𝘢𝘤𝘦, 𝘨𝘪𝘷𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘛𝘦𝘩𝘳𝘢𝘯 𝘭𝘦𝘴𝘴 𝘵𝘩𝘢𝘯 𝘴𝘦𝘷𝘦𝘯 𝘸𝘦𝘦𝘬𝘴 𝘣𝘦𝘧𝘰𝘳𝘦 𝘪𝘵 𝘩𝘢𝘴 𝘵𝘰 𝘴𝘩𝘶𝘵 𝘥𝘰𝘸𝘯 𝘱𝘳𝘰𝘥𝘶𝘤𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯.”
𝐇𝐄𝐑𝐄 𝐈𝐒 𝐓𝐇𝐄 𝐓𝐄𝐂𝐇𝐍𝐈𝐂𝐀𝐋 𝐏𝐑𝐎𝐁𝐋𝐄𝐌. 𝐀𝐍 𝐎𝐈𝐋 𝐑𝐄𝐒𝐄𝐑𝐕𝐎𝐈𝐑 𝐈𝐒 𝐍𝐎𝐓 𝐀 𝐖𝐀𝐓𝐄𝐑 𝐓𝐀𝐏.
When the well stops flowing, four irreversible processes begin:
𝟏. 𝐖𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐫 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐢𝐧𝐠. Oil floats above water in the reservoir. When production stops, water rises into the wellbore. On restart, the well produces water — not oil. The oil that was there is now trapped in rock pores around the bottom of the well, 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐥𝐲 𝐮𝐧𝐫𝐞𝐜𝐨𝐯𝐞𝐫𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞.
𝟐. 𝐏𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐟𝐟𝐢𝐧 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐚𝐬𝐩𝐡𝐚𝐥𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐞 𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧. Heavy hydrocarbons stay dissolved when oil is moving. When flow stops, they crystallize and clog the perforations, the tubing, and the rock pores. 𝐂𝐥𝐞𝐚𝐧𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐭𝐡𝐞𝐦 𝐨𝐮𝐭 𝐫𝐞𝐪𝐮𝐢𝐫𝐞𝐬 𝐜𝐡𝐞𝐦𝐢𝐜𝐚𝐥𝐬, 𝐡𝐨𝐭-𝐨𝐢𝐥 𝐟𝐥𝐮𝐬𝐡𝐞𝐬, 𝐨𝐫 𝐟𝐮𝐥𝐥 𝐰𝐨𝐫𝐤𝐨𝐯𝐞𝐫𝐬 — 𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐫𝐲 𝐨𝐧𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐰𝐡𝐢𝐜𝐡 𝐢𝐬 𝐮𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐫 𝐔.𝐒. 𝐬𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬.
𝟑. 𝐑𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐫𝐯𝐨𝐢𝐫 𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐬𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐥𝐥𝐚𝐩𝐬𝐞. Iran’s elephant fields — Ahvaz, Marun, Gachsaran — are 60-90 years old. They are kept alive by water injection. Stop the injection and the field permanently loses its drive mechanism.
𝟒. 𝐒𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐩𝐫𝐨𝐝𝐮𝐜𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧. Pressure changes during shut-in cause sand and rock fines to migrate into the well. On restart, the well produces sand that erodes pumps and tubing. 𝐈𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐢𝐚𝐧 𝐟𝐢𝐞𝐥𝐝𝐬 𝐚𝐫𝐞 𝐧𝐨𝐭𝐨𝐫𝐢𝐨𝐮𝐬 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬.
Energy analyst Derek Reisfield, formerly of McKinsey, on the record to the NY Post: “𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘥𝘢𝘮𝘢𝘨𝘦 𝘸𝘪𝘭𝘭 𝘣𝘦 𝘪𝘳𝘳𝘦𝘷𝘦𝘳𝘴𝘪𝘣𝘭𝘦. 𝘛𝘩𝘦 𝘭𝘰𝘴𝘴 𝘪𝘯 𝘤𝘢𝘱𝘢𝘤𝘪𝘵𝘺 𝘤𝘰𝘶𝘭𝘥 𝘦𝘢𝘴𝘪𝘭𝘺 𝘣𝘦 𝘩𝘢𝘭𝘧 𝘢 𝘮𝘪𝘭𝘭𝘪𝘰𝘯 𝘣𝘢𝘳𝘳𝘦𝘭𝘴 𝘪𝘯 𝘥𝘢𝘪𝘭𝘺 𝘱𝘳𝘰𝘥𝘶𝘤𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯.”
Even Iran’s own parliament knows. Iranian MP Ahmad Bashesh Ast Ardastani: “𝘸𝘦 𝘮𝘶𝘴𝘵 𝘥𝘰 𝘴𝘰𝘮𝘦𝘵𝘩𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘢𝘣𝘰𝘶𝘵 𝘵𝘩𝘪𝘴 𝘮𝘢𝘳𝘪𝘵𝘪𝘮𝘦 𝘴𝘪𝘦𝘨𝘦. 𝘉𝘦𝘤𝘢𝘶𝘴𝘦 𝘪𝘧 𝘸𝘦 𝘢𝘳𝘦 𝘧𝘰𝘳𝘤𝘦𝘥 𝘵𝘰 𝘴𝘩𝘶𝘵 𝘥𝘰𝘸𝘯 𝘰𝘶𝘳 𝘰𝘪𝘭 𝘸𝘦𝘭𝘭𝘴, 𝘸𝘦 𝘸𝘪𝘭𝘭 𝘯𝘦𝘦𝘥 𝘣𝘪𝘭𝘭𝘪𝘰𝘯𝘴 𝘰𝘧 𝘥𝘰𝘭𝘭𝘢𝘳𝘴 𝘵𝘰 𝘳𝘦𝘴𝘵𝘢𝘳𝘵 𝘵𝘩𝘦𝘮. 𝘚𝘩𝘶𝘵𝘵𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘥𝘰𝘸𝘯 𝘰𝘶𝘳 𝘰𝘪𝘭 𝘸𝘦𝘭𝘭𝘴 𝘪𝘴 𝘯𝘰𝘵 𝘢𝘴 𝘴𝘪𝘮𝘱𝘭𝘦 𝘢𝘴 𝘵𝘶𝘳𝘯𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘰𝘧𝘧 𝘢 𝘸𝘢𝘵𝘦𝘳 𝘵𝘢𝘱.”
Trump on Fox News Sunday: “𝘸𝘩𝘦𝘯 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘩𝘢𝘷𝘦 𝘭𝘪𝘯𝘦𝘴 𝘰𝘧 𝘷𝘢𝘴𝘵 𝘢𝘮𝘰𝘶𝘯𝘵𝘴 𝘰𝘧 𝘰𝘪𝘭 𝘱𝘰𝘶𝘳𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘵𝘩𝘳𝘰𝘶𝘨𝘩 𝘺𝘰𝘶𝘳 𝘴𝘺𝘴𝘵𝘦𝘮 — 𝘪𝘧 𝘧𝘰𝘳 𝘢𝘯𝘺 𝘳𝘦𝘢𝘴𝘰𝘯 𝘵𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘭𝘪𝘯𝘦 𝘪𝘴 𝘤𝘭𝘰𝘴𝘦𝘥, 𝘸𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘩𝘢𝘱𝘱𝘦𝘯𝘴 𝘪𝘴 𝘵𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘭𝘪𝘯𝘦 𝘦𝘹𝘱𝘭𝘰𝘥𝘦𝘴 𝘧𝘳𝘰𝘮 𝘸𝘪𝘵𝘩𝘪𝘯, 𝘣𝘰𝘵𝘩 𝘮𝘦𝘤𝘩𝘢𝘯𝘪𝘤𝘢𝘭𝘭𝘺 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘪𝘯 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘦𝘢𝘳𝘵𝘩. 𝘛𝘩𝘦𝘺 𝘴𝘢𝘺 𝘵𝘩𝘦𝘺 𝘰𝘯𝘭𝘺 𝘩𝘢𝘷𝘦 𝘢𝘣𝘰𝘶𝘵 𝘵𝘩𝘳𝘦𝘦 𝘥𝘢𝘺𝘴 𝘭𝘦𝘧𝘵 𝘣𝘦𝘧𝘰𝘳𝘦 𝘵𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘩𝘢𝘱𝘱𝘦𝘯𝘴. 𝘈𝘯𝘥 𝘸𝘩𝘦𝘯 𝘪𝘵 𝘦𝘹𝘱𝘭𝘰𝘥𝘦𝘴, 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘤𝘢𝘯 𝘯𝘦𝘷𝘦𝘳 𝘳𝘦𝘣𝘶𝘪𝘭𝘥 𝘪𝘵 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘸𝘢𝘺 𝘪𝘵 𝘸𝘢𝘴.”
𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐛𝐢𝐧𝐝 𝐁𝐞𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐑𝐮𝐛𝐢𝐨 𝐞𝐧𝐠𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐞𝐫𝐞𝐝. 𝐈𝐫𝐚𝐧 𝐜𝐚𝐧𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐩𝐮𝐦𝐩 𝐰𝐢𝐭𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐭 𝐞𝐱𝐩𝐨𝐫𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐠. 𝐈𝐫𝐚𝐧 𝐜𝐚𝐧𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐞𝐱𝐩𝐨𝐫𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐫𝐨𝐮𝐠𝐡 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐛𝐥𝐨𝐜𝐤𝐚𝐝𝐞. 𝐈𝐫𝐚𝐧 𝐜𝐚𝐧𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐬𝐭𝐨𝐩 𝐩𝐫𝐨𝐝𝐮𝐜𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐰𝐢𝐭𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐭 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐥𝐲 𝐝𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐨𝐲𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐰𝐞𝐥𝐥𝐬.
𝐓𝐞𝐡𝐫𝐚𝐧 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝟐𝟒 𝐭𝐨 𝟒𝟖 𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐜𝐡𝐨𝐨𝐬𝐞. 𝐓𝐡𝐞𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐜𝐡𝐨𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐦𝐚𝐤𝐞𝐬 𝐢𝐭𝐬𝐞𝐥𝐟 — 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐈𝐑𝐆𝐂’𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐧𝐮𝐞 𝐛𝐚𝐬𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐠𝐨𝐧𝐞 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐚 𝐠𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐫𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧.
I have just one big problem with it. Iran normally produces 4.5 million barrels pd.
So;
𝘛𝘩𝘦 𝘭𝘰𝘴𝘴 𝘪𝘯 𝘤𝘢𝘱𝘢𝘤𝘪𝘵𝘺 𝘤𝘰𝘶𝘭𝘥 𝘦𝘢𝘴𝘪𝘭𝘺 𝘣𝘦 𝘩𝘢𝘭𝘧 𝘢 𝘮𝘪𝘭𝘭𝘪𝘰𝘯 𝘣𝘢𝘳𝘳𝘦𝘭𝘴 𝘪𝘯 𝘥𝘢𝘪𝘭𝘺 𝘱𝘳𝘰𝘥𝘶𝘤𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯.”
Kinda nullifies the whole thing. They arent going to panic over a theorteical roughly 10 per cent loss.