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42
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Iran has offered to fully open the Strait of Hormuz (no tolls, etc.) if the US ends the war and lifts the blockade. As stated previously, Iran is on the clock now with its oil storage capacity set to reach its limits later this week. That will then cause Iran to have to shut in production. There is some debate about how close Iran is to having to shut in production and whether Iran will manage the issue by slowly shutting in production to reserve some storage space to prevent a log jam once the Strait is reopened. Assuming that this is the case, Iran could last a few more weeks before it faces a crisis in the oil patch.
It is no coincidence that UAE just announced that it is pulling out of OPEC. UAE anticipates that there will either be a devastating new round of bombing that will heavily damage Iran and the GCC's oil infrastructure or the blockade will continue and Iran will have to shut in wells. UAE and the Saudi's oil wells are engineered differently to allow for some control over the rate of production without having to shut in wells and spend a lot of money reworking the oil field to resume production. If Iran's oil production is taken off line for an extended period and UAE is able to produce oil during that time period, UAE is going to want to pump as much as they can to make up for losses incurred during the war.
This is bad for the US and Russian oil markets. The Saudis and UAE have the capacity to flood the market with oil and send prices plummeting. Without OPEC to hold up prices, everyone will scramble for market share.
Reports are coming out now that Trump's advisors are telling him that Iran will only make real concessions if Trump resumes bombing. Israel is also lobbying Trump heavily to resume attacks. Trump is claiming that Iranian officials told him the country was in a "state of collapse." This is consistent with Trump's attempts to calm markets by claiming that Iran is just minutes away from giving up and agreeing to all of the US demands.
Finally, there are reports that JD Vance has been at odds with US military leaders over the draw down of US missile stocks and whether it will be necessary to pull missiles out of Europe and Asia to be able to continue with bombing against Iran. There are concerns that Russia will be sending Iran advanced drones to use against the US and that China may take advantage of an overstretched US military to try and take Taiwan.
If Trump takes a deal that gets the Strait open with Iran agreeing to let all traffic through without charging tolls, oil prices will drop back to the $80 range and by midterms gas may be back under $3. The economy will limp along and may be able to recover by midterms. If Trump renews attacks on Iran, oil prices will remain above $100 for the rest of the year and could go much higher depending on how much damage is done to oil infrastructure in Iran and the Gulf states. The economy will take a beating and be in recession by midterms.
So, if you want to know what Trump will do next, you have to know whether Trump cares about midterms or not. If he does, now is the time to end the conflict. If he does not, now is the time to attack Iran before Congress can act on a war powers resolution.
62 -
Masked Off wrote:
Taco Tuesday wrote:
LOL germany. That place is Cooked, perhaps the chancellor should be a little more concerned about his country and how it's on the decline big time because of too much "immigration." Time to cut off aid to germany and many other countries.
This is a lot like the maga response to Kimmel. "He's worthless, nobody cares what he thinks! So let's punish him and silence him." Does this make any sense?
33 -
Take heart America. While your gas prices are up 30%, oil corporations are making billions. It will definitely trickle down and cover your fuel costs and then some!
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/bp-profit-beats-expectations-32-billion-2026-04-28/
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Israel First wrote:
Newname wrote:
What is that and what does it mean? You do know that's AI generated?
No it’s not, do some research.
Sure looks like it is
13 -
Precious Roy wrote:
Iran has offered to fully open the Strait of Hormuz (no tolls, etc.) if the US ends the war and lifts the blockade. As stated previously, Iran is on the clock now with its oil storage capacity set to reach its limits later this week. That will then cause Iran to have to shut in production. There is some debate about how close Iran is to having to shut in production and whether Iran will manage the issue by slowly shutting in production to reserve some storage space to prevent a log jam once the Strait is reopened. Assuming that this is the case, Iran could last a few more weeks before it faces a crisis in the oil patch.
It is no coincidence that UAE just announced that it is pulling out of OPEC. UAE anticipates that there will either be a devastating new round of bombing that will heavily damage Iran and the GCC's oil infrastructure or the blockade will continue and Iran will have to shut in wells. UAE and the Saudi's oil wells are engineered differently to allow for some control over the rate of production without having to shut in wells and spend a lot of money reworking the oil field to resume production. If Iran's oil production is taken off line for an extended period and UAE is able to produce oil during that time period, UAE is going to want to pump as much as they can to make up for losses incurred during the war.
This is bad for the US and Russian oil markets. The Saudis and UAE have the capacity to flood the market with oil and send prices plummeting. Without OPEC to hold up prices, everyone will scramble for market share.
Reports are coming out now that Trump's advisors are telling him that Iran will only make real concessions if Trump resumes bombing. Israel is also lobbying Trump heavily to resume attacks. Trump is claiming that Iranian officials told him the country was in a "state of collapse." This is consistent with Trump's attempts to calm markets by claiming that Iran is just minutes away from giving up and agreeing to all of the US demands.
Finally, there are reports that JD Vance has been at odds with US military leaders over the draw down of US missile stocks and whether it will be necessary to pull missiles out of Europe and Asia to be able to continue with bombing against Iran. There are concerns that Russia will be sending Iran advanced drones to use against the US and that China may take advantage of an overstretched US military to try and take Taiwan.
If Trump takes a deal that gets the Strait open with Iran agreeing to let all traffic through without charging tolls, oil prices will drop back to the $80 range and by midterms gas may be back under $3. The economy will limp along and may be able to recover by midterms. If Trump renews attacks on Iran, oil prices will remain above $100 for the rest of the year and could go much higher depending on how much damage is done to oil infrastructure in Iran and the Gulf states. The economy will take a beating and be in recession by midterms.
So, if you want to know what Trump will do next, you have to know whether Trump cares about midterms or not. If he does, now is the time to end the conflict. If he does not, now is the time to attack Iran before Congress can act on a war powers resolution.
As stated previously, Iran is on the clock now with its oil storage capacity set to reach its limits later this week. That will then cause Iran to have to shut in production. Says who?
13 -
Newname wrote:
Radical Leftist wrote:
The same Arab nations doing nothing today about Palestinians? For example Egypt has closed its border with Gaza.
ANd why does Egypt do that? Maybe the $1.5 billion plus per year they the US taxpayer gives them due to the 1979 Camp David Accords to play nice with Israel? Or the similar amount paid to Jordan each year due to the 1994 Jordan Israel peace accords?
So Egypt and Jordan sold out the Palestinians for $1.5 billion? Doesn't sound that they were all that concerned about the plight of Palestinians to begin with. They just didn't want to accept Israel.
00 -
RealityIsPainful wrote:
Take heart America. While your gas prices are up 30%, oil corporations are making billions. It will definitely trickle down and cover your fuel costs and then some!
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/bp-profit-beats-expectations-32-billion-2026-04-28/
Funny how that works.
Big Banks cause worldwide meltdown in 2008-09. They get bailed out, the Banksters get richer, We get screwed, Covid? Same thing. Iran war? Same thing
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Newname wrote:
Israel First wrote:
No it’s not, do some research.
Sure looks like it is
Looks like something out of Harry Potter
34 -
Radical Leftist wrote:
Newname wrote:
ANd why does Egypt do that? Maybe the $1.5 billion plus per year they the US taxpayer gives them due to the 1979 Camp David Accords to play nice with Israel? Or the similar amount paid to Jordan each year due to the 1994 Jordan Israel peace accords?
So Egypt and Jordan sold out the Palestinians for $1.5 billion? Doesn't sound that they were all that concerned about the plight of Palestinians to begin with. They just didn't want to accept Israel.
$1.5 billion per year for each for several decades. Doesn't seem as if you are very concerned about the Palestinians.
23 -
Newname wrote:
Precious Roy wrote:
Iran has offered to fully open the Strait of Hormuz (no tolls, etc.) if the US ends the war and lifts the blockade. As stated previously, Iran is on the clock now with its oil storage capacity set to reach its limits later this week. That will then cause Iran to have to shut in production. There is some debate about how close Iran is to having to shut in production and whether Iran will manage the issue by slowly shutting in production to reserve some storage space to prevent a log jam once the Strait is reopened. Assuming that this is the case, Iran could last a few more weeks before it faces a crisis in the oil patch.
It is no coincidence that UAE just announced that it is pulling out of OPEC. UAE anticipates that there will either be a devastating new round of bombing that will heavily damage Iran and the GCC's oil infrastructure or the blockade will continue and Iran will have to shut in wells. UAE and the Saudi's oil wells are engineered differently to allow for some control over the rate of production without having to shut in wells and spend a lot of money reworking the oil field to resume production. If Iran's oil production is taken off line for an extended period and UAE is able to produce oil during that time period, UAE is going to want to pump as much as they can to make up for losses incurred during the war.
This is bad for the US and Russian oil markets. The Saudis and UAE have the capacity to flood the market with oil and send prices plummeting. Without OPEC to hold up prices, everyone will scramble for market share.
Reports are coming out now that Trump's advisors are telling him that Iran will only make real concessions if Trump resumes bombing. Israel is also lobbying Trump heavily to resume attacks. Trump is claiming that Iranian officials told him the country was in a "state of collapse." This is consistent with Trump's attempts to calm markets by claiming that Iran is just minutes away from giving up and agreeing to all of the US demands.
Finally, there are reports that JD Vance has been at odds with US military leaders over the draw down of US missile stocks and whether it will be necessary to pull missiles out of Europe and Asia to be able to continue with bombing against Iran. There are concerns that Russia will be sending Iran advanced drones to use against the US and that China may take advantage of an overstretched US military to try and take Taiwan.
If Trump takes a deal that gets the Strait open with Iran agreeing to let all traffic through without charging tolls, oil prices will drop back to the $80 range and by midterms gas may be back under $3. The economy will limp along and may be able to recover by midterms. If Trump renews attacks on Iran, oil prices will remain above $100 for the rest of the year and could go much higher depending on how much damage is done to oil infrastructure in Iran and the Gulf states. The economy will take a beating and be in recession by midterms.
So, if you want to know what Trump will do next, you have to know whether Trump cares about midterms or not. If he does, now is the time to end the conflict. If he does not, now is the time to attack Iran before Congress can act on a war powers resolution.
As stated previously, Iran is on the clock now with its oil storage capacity set to reach its limits later this week. That will then cause Iran to have to shut in production. Says who?
Everyone. When storage capacity is used up, you have to stop production or else you will destroy pipelines and damage other mid and upstream infrastructure. Wells do not have an off switch. Managing pressure in a formation is why you cannot just stop production and put a giant cork in the pipe.
As I said above, there is a debate on timing. Some think that Iran can hold out longer by gradually shutting in wells to leave room in storage to get production back to 100% without having to wait for storage to empty out. Most storage tanks are safe at 80% of capacity. Iran has in the past pushed them beyond that without incident. So, the claim that Iran has until the end of this week may be the worst case scenario and assumes that they have not been proactively shutting in wells. But Iran has never been in this position before and no one really knows how they are dealing with this issue.
10 -
Precious Roy wrote:
Newname wrote:
As stated previously, Iran is on the clock now with its oil storage capacity set to reach its limits later this week. That will then cause Iran to have to shut in production. Says who?
Everyone. When storage capacity is used up, you have to stop production or else you will destroy pipelines and damage other mid and upstream infrastructure. Wells do not have an off switch. Managing pressure in a formation is why you cannot just stop production and put a giant cork in the pipe.
As I said above, there is a debate on timing. Some think that Iran can hold out longer by gradually shutting in wells to leave room in storage to get production back to 100% without having to wait for storage to empty out. Most storage tanks are safe at 80% of capacity. Iran has in the past pushed them beyond that without incident. So, the claim that Iran has until the end of this week may be the worst case scenario and assumes that they have not been proactively shutting in wells. But Iran has never been in this position before and no one really knows how they are dealing with this issue.
No offense, but these are the same folks that said russia would run out of ammunition soon. They might be right, it might be propaganda, or it might be both. I thought most of the oil and gas was used locally for Iranian energy needs. I don't actually know, I am just skeptical.
10 -
Radical Leftist wrote:
Newname wrote:
ANd why does Egypt do that? Maybe the $1.5 billion plus per year they the US taxpayer gives them due to the 1979 Camp David Accords to play nice with Israel? Or the similar amount paid to Jordan each year due to the 1994 Jordan Israel peace accords?
So Egypt and Jordan sold out the Palestinians for $1.5 billion? Doesn't sound that they were all that concerned about the plight of Palestinians to begin with. They just didn't want to accept Israel.
Egypt and Jordan do not like the Palestinians. Hamas is the Palestinian branch of the Muslim Brotherhood. Egypt hates the Muslim Brotherhood. Jordan has over 2 million Palestinian refugees. The PLO tried to overthrow the Jordanian monarchy in the Black September war of 1970.
In the Arab world, there is often more hate for Israel than there is love for the Palestinians. Some Arabs see Palestinians has "half breeds" and not true Arabs. Ironically, Saudis see the Palestinians as being too moderate and also trying to shift the focus of Islam from Mecca and Medina to the Dome of the Rock and Al Aqsa Mosque in Jerusalem. This is why the famous scene in Lawrence of Arabia is still true to this day (@ 3:40)
10 -
Precious Roy wrote:
Iran has offered to fully open the Strait of Hormuz (no tolls, etc.) if the US ends the war and lifts the blockade. As stated previously, Iran is on the clock now with its oil storage capacity set to reach its limits later this week. That will then cause Iran to have to shut in production. There is some debate about how close Iran is to having to shut in production and whether Iran will manage the issue by slowly shutting in production to reserve some storage space to prevent a log jam once the Strait is reopened. Assuming that this is the case, Iran could last a few more weeks before it faces a crisis in the oil patch.
It is no coincidence that UAE just announced that it is pulling out of OPEC. UAE anticipates that there will either be a devastating new round of bombing that will heavily damage Iran and the GCC's oil infrastructure or the blockade will continue and Iran will have to shut in wells. UAE and the Saudi's oil wells are engineered differently to allow for some control over the rate of production without having to shut in wells and spend a lot of money reworking the oil field to resume production. If Iran's oil production is taken off line for an extended period and UAE is able to produce oil during that time period, UAE is going to want to pump as much as they can to make up for losses incurred during the war.
This is bad for the US and Russian oil markets. The Saudis and UAE have the capacity to flood the market with oil and send prices plummeting. Without OPEC to hold up prices, everyone will scramble for market share.
Reports are coming out now that Trump's advisors are telling him that Iran will only make real concessions if Trump resumes bombing. Israel is also lobbying Trump heavily to resume attacks. Trump is claiming that Iranian officials told him the country was in a "state of collapse." This is consistent with Trump's attempts to calm markets by claiming that Iran is just minutes away from giving up and agreeing to all of the US demands.
Finally, there are reports that JD Vance has been at odds with US military leaders over the draw down of US missile stocks and whether it will be necessary to pull missiles out of Europe and Asia to be able to continue with bombing against Iran. There are concerns that Russia will be sending Iran advanced drones to use against the US and that China may take advantage of an overstretched US military to try and take Taiwan.
If Trump takes a deal that gets the Strait open with Iran agreeing to let all traffic through without charging tolls, oil prices will drop back to the $80 range and by midterms gas may be back under $3. The economy will limp along and may be able to recover by midterms. If Trump renews attacks on Iran, oil prices will remain above $100 for the rest of the year and could go much higher depending on how much damage is done to oil infrastructure in Iran and the Gulf states. The economy will take a beating and be in recession by midterms.
So, if you want to know what Trump will do next, you have to know whether Trump cares about midterms or not. If he does, now is the time to end the conflict. If he does not, now is the time to attack Iran before Congress can act on a war powers resolution.
White House aides are probably playing an in house version of The Apprentice in which the winner crafts the best narrative to sell "winning" out of depleting our munitions reserve, wounding the world economy and opening Hormuz, which only was closed because we attacked.
20 -
RealityIsPainful wrote:
Masked Off wrote:
LOL germany. That place is Cooked, perhaps the chancellor should be a little more concerned about his country and how it's on the decline big time because of too much "immigration." Time to cut off aid to germany and many other countries.
This is a lot like the maga response to Kimmel. "He's worthless, nobody cares what he thinks! So let's punish him and silence him." Does this make any sense?
Kimmel is an idiot and certainly not funny.
44 -
Kimmel is funny to lots of people who don’t have thin skin. He’s not funny to MAGA because he makes too many truth jokes about their boy Don.
62 -
sheengnarly wrote:
RealityIsPainful wrote:
This is a lot like the maga response to Kimmel. "He's worthless, nobody cares what he thinks! So let's punish him and silence him." Does this make any sense?
Kimmel is an idiot and certainly not funny.
And nobody cares what he says so he needs to be silenced?
21 -
Precious Roy wrote:
Newname wrote:
As stated previously, Iran is on the clock now with its oil storage capacity set to reach its limits later this week. That will then cause Iran to have to shut in production. Says who?
Everyone. When storage capacity is used up, you have to stop production or else you will destroy pipelines and damage other mid and upstream infrastructure. Wells do not have an off switch. Managing pressure in a formation is why you cannot just stop production and put a giant cork in the pipe.
As I said above, there is a debate on timing. Some think that Iran can hold out longer by gradually shutting in wells to leave room in storage to get production back to 100% without having to wait for storage to empty out. Most storage tanks are safe at 80% of capacity. Iran has in the past pushed them beyond that without incident. So, the claim that Iran has until the end of this week may be the worst case scenario and assumes that they have not been proactively shutting in wells. But Iran has never been in this position before and no one really knows how they are dealing with this issue.
why wouldnt they just pump it straight into the desert or the sea and blame trump?
they dont care about the environment and long term it would be cheaper than trashing formations.
i am sure they could get good progoganda from it too with liitle lego people swimming in a black sea with trumpian warships.
00
