What I want to say is that you are all suckers for even talking about about this in the first place. It’s like listening to people who read The Enquirer”.
And that's why it even happens. Someone is cashing in big time on these maniacs.
It's all in how you craft the story. If the media/intel complex had merely said "hmm looks like Russia might recognize and annex Donbass soon," there would have been no effect at all. Donbass has been de facto independent for 7 years, wants to join Russia, only in the strictest technical sense is it an invasion, doesn't scare people.
Talk about a big war for all Ukraine, and now we see the audience spinning up its own narrative for the next year or two, instead of saying "oh is that all, big deal." Look at agip who lives to freak out, already mapping out the contingencies.
oh hey the guy who said there wouldn't be an invasion.
then the next day Russia sends 'peacekeepers' across the border onto Ukrainian soil.
So what's happening here...the actual people are saying 'don't sell - we've seen this play a thousand times and selling when shots start flying is always stupid'
vs
the retailers who get scared and sell all the time at things like this, or those who might argue that with cyber warfare the old rulebook is not valid. The battlefield is anonymous and global now
vs
the quants which are generally trend following and will just amplify whatever is happening.
So the question is when the human beings will step in and start seeing value with stocks down 12-20%.
you know the market makers will hold down the open under normal circumstances, unless there is just too big a wave calling a bottom. Then with the weaker hands shook out, we see some massive buying, in the morning, In any case, higher by the end of the week. My best guess, fwiw.
I’m starting to feel the time is approaching to dip a toe back in and spend some of the money under the mattress.
… which is probably a sign the markets have a way to fall yet … :-)
not crazy. You could make a good argument that Putin is just going to sit in the 'republics' and go no further for now. I mean all he managed to do was unite NATO and enable Ukraine to feel like a real nation. Does he really want to get sanctioned so he can try to rule over a country that wants nothing to do with him and will fight back? Putin could just take the $100 oil and wait for another day.
I used to come here to read that Republicans suck (agip), that Democrats suck (Igy), that boomers suck (Racket), that Hussman sucks (Sally), that the world’s ending (idiot), that everyone else is a moron (gente), etc.
Am I coming across as gnashing my teeth about the world ending? I think I've been insistent that there is trouble on the horizon (which keeps getting closer), and I suppose I did say something along the lines about being more worried about global stability now than I have been before, but I don't know that I'd been bleating about the world ending. The world has an amazing capacity to survive global catastrophes; it's not the world I'm worried about, it's the safety and security of the people in it that worries me. :-)
Anyway, what's happening in Ukraine right now has a good chance of swaying world markets about drunkenly for the foreseeable future. I don't know why mas would want to pretend it all away; there's no point discussing the markets these days without recognizing the stampeding elephant in Europe.
It's not obvious to me the likely net effect of this invasion (which I think we can safely say started officially yesterday with the deployment of Russian "peacekeepers" to the two new pseudo-states that Putin alone decided now exist, in a bizarre and maybe brilliant bit of stealth empire building; very, very sneaky...). Looking back at the markets in past conflicts, big and small, yields mixed signals. I think I said about 2-3 weeks ago (?) we seem to be at a critical point where anything might happen, and I suppose I still feel about the same way.
Fingers crossed, I'm sleep-typing and will wake up to learn that Putin actually pulled his troops back from the border, and the peacekeeping adventure was all a strange dream...
And that's why it even happens. Someone is cashing in big time on these maniacs.
It's all in how you craft the story. If the media/intel complex had merely said "hmm looks like Russia might recognize and annex Donbass soon," there would have been no effect at all. Donbass has been de facto independent for 7 years, wants to join Russia, only in the strictest technical sense is it an invasion, doesn't scare people.
Talk about a big war for all Ukraine, and now we see the audience spinning up its own narrative for the next year or two, instead of saying "oh is that all, big deal." Look at agip who lives to freak out, already mapping out the contingencies.
oh hey the guy who said there wouldn't be an invasion.
then the next day Russia sends 'peacekeepers' across the border onto Ukrainian soil.
You have zero credibility.
He was already the laughing stock of Letsrun even before the infamous 2600 claim.
VIX creeping back up toward the bell. Did anybody go shopping 26 January when it got close to 32? I feel like maybe agip was talking about it being a good time to buy at that moment. Curious to check in on sentiments today.
The effectiveness of the info ops campaign stateside has been breath taking. Consider carefully the side you choose here Igy.
The COVID pandemic is over, but the plague that is social media continues to infect minds across the US.
You’re sadly mistaken if you think I have any affinity for Putin. He has played the West pretty affectively. And Racket, you are about the worst example of the plague of social media.
You’re sadly mistaken if you think I have any affinity for Putin. He has played the West pretty affectively.
OK that's good to know. That wasn't obvious from your comment about little green men, from which I surmised you were implying it's all made up bogeymen, nothing to see there. I don't get much right, but I do know some stuff and things are pretty much falling into place as I suggested they would, at least the broad strokes. I tried to give you all, my little circle of DTGD acquaintances, my best advice, but I realize it's hard to know what freely given random yammering from an anonymous idiot on the internet has value.
I bought at almost the lows of aapl and msft when vix was elevated, but the vix trade is intraday imo, you play the flip. I did play a little spxl at that time, but only a trivial amount.
Well, my oil exposure is floating me early this morning. Might be a day to do some buying.
