I think 95% of Putin's goal is to wreck any democracy that starts to take hold in the former soviet union. If democracy and hope can take root in Ukraine then it can take root in Russia proper. So until Ukraine's government is toppled or in chaos, Putin's goals are not achieved.
The NATO thing is connected but not the main thing. Democracy will shoot Putin in the head. NATO just gives him an excuse to have military exercises. Not such a big deal to him.
This is bad news for Ukraine.
I see your point.
NY Times reporting a few minutes ago that the WH learned last week of actual orders from the Kremlin to invade. Not just a hunch, but actual intelligence to that effect.
Though still some negotiating going on, the possibility that it will be delayed or even changed, and the timing remains unclear,
Yeah I check Russia Today to see what the official Kremlin line is, and its lead story is that Macron and Putin have had some kind of diplomatic breakthrough. Of course much of this is just Putin trying to play off the Western countries against each other but what's on RT is what Putin is trying to get across so it's worth a read.
Also, the UK said pretty much Russia would be out of the world trading system if they go forward.
My feeling is that there will be a long standoff, during which Putin hopes the Ukrainian government collapses, or Russia sends in its army to the eastern regions with all the Russian speakers. Not to Kyev.
When is value not a headfake? Now? Will money flow into value? I hope so. Could be a movement against index funds. All those moribund stock picking funds could suddenly get hot. I have a holding in a value fund...up 27% over the last year. but it's been a dog until recently of course.
Look at staples. Wow. That's what is supposed to happen in times of worry. People always need toothpaste. Good to see the playbook work.
Have to think quality corp bonds are worth a look here. That's a big loss for investment quality bonds.
So tech. Even after a drubbing it's up 7% over a year. That might mean it has more to fall. Hard to believe all this drubbing in tech names will end with the tech funds positive over a year.
As Q4 earnings are reported, the market is rewarding positive earnings surprises less than average and punishing negative earnings surprises more than average.
Yes in my view. Less mega cap growth and substantial cash on balance sheet.
Just looked up the holdings. Berkshire is 47% AAPL, so owning AAPL is almost like holding Berkshire? Seems very to heavy.
AAPL 47.6%
BAC 13.6%
AXP 7.5%
KO 7.16%
KHC 3.5%
Everything else is below 3%.
I believe that is only the 13F filling of public companies held. Does not include businesses completely owned: RC Whiley, Sees Candies, Shaw Carpet, GEICO, Dairy Queen, Brooks Shoes (or is it New Balance), and of course the cash. There are others, a railroad or two, Precision Cast Parts. All this is off the top of my head. Sure to lower the percentage by quite a bit.
Just looked up the holdings. Berkshire is 47% AAPL, so owning AAPL is almost like holding Berkshire? Seems very to heavy.
AAPL 47.6%
BAC 13.6%
AXP 7.5%
KO 7.16%
KHC 3.5%
Everything else is below 3%.
I believe that is only the 13F filling of public companies held. Does not include businesses completely owned: RC Whiley, Sees Candies, Shaw Carpet, GEICO, Dairy Queen, Brooks Shoes (or is it New Balance), and of course the cash. There are others, a railroad or two, Precision Cast Parts. All this is off the top of my head. Sure to lower the percentage by quite a bit.
Yes. But I still see a lot of brk as 1950’s-era Americana. DQ, candies, coke, crappy american ketchup, etc. It still does ok, thanks to the south. It’s mint julep bf.
And he thinks Apple is the best company in the world. i don’t like his seemingly emotional investment in that one.
And he has never been into gold in any way, except for his Barrick last year. That summary dismissal has no place in an investment profile like brk claims to have.
otoh he can change his mind, like on WFC last year—but it takes a lot, especially gov pressure, to get him to move.
But brk is no great shakes. When stuff was down in 2020, it went down below 250k. i almost bought, but didn’t, and am glad about that decision. He’s old school, sometimes not in a good way, and he bets on the good ole’ US of A.
I’ll take that bet. I’m beating it even this year. The only common thing we have is Apple, and I have nowhere near as much of it.
But otoh brk does the work for you. I know some people with real money who have NOTHING BUT BRK. They are ALL in their 80’s, and have spent absolutely zero time on their investments in 30 years! That is the type of client he has loved, and courted, and snagged. And they are lifers. And I am talking real money.
In the end, I still think about buying some as my US exposure.
I know what they have displayed on this thread. You know I wasn’t talking about you.
But you know how these things go. Essentially nobody is candorous, optics and propaganda are a mosaic, and things can and often do change on a dime.
It’s always laughable to hear reporting on something that you know about. What’s really bizarre is when somebody who has no business knowing anything gets it all right. Sometimes they get called in, especially if they have done it more than once. But really it never happens, unless an insider flips.
Russia has done a good job of controlling information flow, so far. Coordinated and concentrated. Semi-impressive in this environment.
Lol I keep thinking of some Russian kids I know in Monaco, with their lambos and shiit. Let the good times roll!
YARDENI RESEARCH. The air continues to come out of the forward P/Es of the various S&P stock market indexes. My colleague Joe Abbott and I also calculate... 22 comments on LinkedIn
Stocks not cheap at all, but likely to get cheaper as government subsidies and Fed pull away. A Ukrainian invasion by Russia will take the S&P 500 to 3,800.
