Thank you Flagpole
Thank you Flagpole
Actually the "Have a good day" response was mine. I have decided to give you a more complete response and simply not allow you to get away with it. It is you that continues to say "tell me nothing I did not already know." In fact that attitude has been expressed by you from the very beginning and continuesthroughout your posts. Yet in your responses you demonstrate a cursory knowledge of the subject matter. You talk about bonds as if they are one and the same. I respond that they are not. I even demonstrate how a Treasury bond may be a superior investment to an investment in the S&P 500. And you say that I have "confirmation bias." Your views simply regurgitate CNBC. When you are confronted with opposing viewpoints you dismiss the argument and criticize the source.
I would suggest that you look in the mirror first or do a little more research on what "confirmation bias" really is.
Now, that is all I have to say to you today...and do have a good day.
The Real Igy
You are full of assumptions. Of course I know the difference between junk bonds and Treasuries. The difference between us is that you assume someone with a different viewpoint than yours is uneducated, while I assume you know more than you are letting on because it does not support your public position. You see, it is you who "demonstrates a cursory knowledge", but I believe you know more than you "demonstrate" here. Unfortunately your high and mighty position does not allow you accept that I might not be as dumb as you think I am.
A good example of this behavior is your "lesson" on bonds. I'm not talking about the well known fact that bond prices and yields are inversely related. I'm talking about your little spiel about getting your 2% yield and your principle back even though yields may rise. Of course, we all agree because we all know how bonds work. What you left out, though I firmly believe that you are aware of it, is that most bonds are held in funds and not by individuals. These funds rarely hold their bonds to maturity, selling and buying them often to maximize returns for the funds investors. That is precisely why the bond bubble is troublesome, but you knew that, didn't you.
Additionally, despite you're predictable attempt to paint me as ignorant, I am well aware of what confirmation bias is and its dangers to investors. You, my friend, are the poster boy for confirmation bias.
Finally, I don't watch CNBC.
Sally V wrote:
You are full of assumptions. Of course I know the difference between junk bonds and Treasuries. The difference between us is that you assume someone with a different viewpoint than yours is uneducated, while I assume you know more than you are letting on because it does not support your public position. You see, it is you who "demonstrates a cursory knowledge", but I believe you know more than you "demonstrate" here. Unfortunately your high and mighty position does not allow you accept that I might not be as dumb as you think I am.
A good example of this behavior is your "lesson" on bonds. I'm not talking about the well known fact that bond prices and yields are inversely related. I'm talking about your little spiel about getting your 2% yield and your principle back even though yields may rise. Of course, we all agree because we all know how bonds work. What you left out, though I firmly believe that you are aware of it, is that most bonds are held in funds and not by individuals. These funds rarely hold their bonds to maturity, selling and buying them often to maximize returns for the funds investors. That is precisely why the bond bubble is troublesome, but you knew that, didn't you.
Additionally, despite you're predictable attempt to paint me as ignorant, I am well aware of what confirmation bias is and its dangers to investors. You, my friend, are the poster boy for confirmation bias.
Finally, I don't watch CNBC.
OK, this is starting to get interesting. Maybe this thread can survive without an official crazy after all.
OK, here is my response.
First, you said: "I assume you know more than you are letting on because it does not support your public position."
For the record this best summarizes my viewpoint: "At current valuation levels, it is hard to see how a traditional stock and bond portfolio will perfom to historical levels, at least over the next ten years."
Read more:
http://www.letsrun.com/forum/flat_read.php?thread=5369837&page=285#ixzz3e6hg8MpZ
Also, I have supplied plenty of data and the rationale to support my position. You have provided little to none in the way of data or rationale, but plenty of accusations.
Second, you said "we all know how bonds work. What you left out, though I firmly believe that you are aware of it, is that most bonds are held in funds and not by individuals. These funds rarely hold their bonds to maturity, selling and buying them often to maximize returns for the funds investors. "
My response is that bond mutual fund managers trade bonds for a variety of reasons, and many bonds in bond mutual funds are held to maturity. Bonds can be sold due to overvaluation, bonds can be sold due to unforseen risks and bonds can be sold to fund redemptions. No different than a stock mutual fund manager. One can buy a can buy a bond index fund exchange traded fund just as well as one can buy a stock index exchange traded fund. Both investments are passive.
Third, you said "That is precisely why the bond bubble is troublesome, but you knew that, didn't you."
I gave example using a bond proxy (10 Year Treasury) and a stock proxy (S&P 500 Index) to illustrate a point. There is no selective bias here. I am illustrating a point here using approriate industry benchmarks.
Lastly, you act the injured party when you claim "despite you're predictable attempt to paint me as ignorant."
Yet you responded to my posts with the following: "Anybody with at least half a brain can see the bubble there."
Read more:
http://www.letsrun.com/forum/flat_read.php?thread=5369837&page=280#ixzz3e6ieldm4
Or: "Your tunnel vision is why you are so clueless."
Read more:
http://www.letsrun.com/forum/flat_read.php?thread=5369837&page=281#ixzz3e6jJioqO
Have a good evening.
Igy
One lesson I learned from being in the hospital is the importance of giving the patients (founders/employees/leaders) the tools to handle their emotional struggles ON THEIR OWN.
If you jump to their side every time they have an outburst then they might not be able to manage their emotions and disputes on their own when the program is over.
YTD, coming up on the halfway point of the year:
DJIA up 0.378%
SP500 up 2.11%
R3K up 2.92%
Another "up" year so far, if the pace holds the R3K will be up around 6% by year's end. Not bad. And then there are world stocks, too.
Just the facts, ma'am wrote:
YTD, coming up on the halfway point of the year:
DJIA up 0.378%
SP500 up 2.11%
R3K up 2.92%
Another "up" year so far, if the pace holds the R3K will be up around 6% by year's end. Not bad. And then there are world stocks, too.
Yeah, but what does that have to do with helicopters in hospital beds or yak herders?
Only helicopters here are the central banks dumping money on the world stock markets. Hospital will be for wounded investors. Yak herders will be picking up the crumbs and leftovers.
That's all.
Why is there no enthusiam for stock talk today?
It appears we are going to see if Greece is insignificant. Asia market open will be the first indication.
Greece institutes capital controls, banks close for the week. EU cuts liquidity to Greek banks. Asian markets down, S&P looks to open down 30 points.
I assume Greece may matter or are stock valuations so stretched that stocks are looking for an excuse to go down?
Good day for a bump. Sell sell sell!
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
It appears we are going to see if Greece is insignificant. Asia market open will be the first indication.
Significant to the European and US banks who own $10 billions in Government debt.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
It appears we are going to see if Greece is insignificant. Asia market open will be the first indication.
well at first blush a grexit is worth only around 56 basis points of fear in the US. one half of one percent isn't very much.
More in europe obviously - one to three percent.
Asia is buffetted by more - china may be having a crisis - that is way more important to them than greece
and note of course that a balance portfolio didn't lose anything today - bonds are up that same 56 basis points.
(so far)
Over the short term you are perhaps correct on Greece's impact. In a fundamental view once valuations are stretched it does not matter what the trigger is. It could be Greece, record corporate/margin debt, Puerto Rico bond default, China market collapse, etc.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Over the short term you are perhaps correct on Greece's impact. In a fundamental view once valuations are stretched it does not matter what the trigger is. It could be Greece, record corporate/margin debt, Puerto Rico bond default, China market collapse, etc.
truth
If the markets don't crash today, with all the bad news, they will never crash, unless the cost of borrowing becomes too great.
China is the big news that is getting overshadowed by the Greek noise.
Well, down over 200 now. We will see...
Buy! Buy! Buy!
Tiny Bubbles wrote:
If the markets don't crash today, with all the bad news, they will never crash, unless the cost of borrowing becomes too great.
China is the big news that is getting overshadowed by the Greek noise.
IF you are correct (a very big IF) then it is inevitable that the markets will crash today since it is certainly inevitable that the markets will crash at some time in the future.
If the markets do not crash today then it is a certainty that your post was incorrect.