Hey agip I took a look at the CPI numbers. It turns out that when you take the weighting into account, while used cars and gasoline are still the biggest components, they are only so by a small amount, for example:
1.678 Used Cars
1.499 Gasoline
1.450 Shelter (mostly OER)
0.998 Food
Or, I think that's how it works out, more or less. Did this in 2 seconds, might be wrong. OER has such a high weight that it ends up adding a lot--and since the first 2 can be strongly affected by behavior yet OER not really, it is probably the realistic biggest contributor to the CPI. Haven't done a deep dive, that is just my sense of it.
This is good to hear, and I was thinking the same thing might be true when i heard the numbers released last week. I did some checking around and saw it mentioned that the inflation numbers were more broadly based this time, though in the recent past it was due to gas and cars largely, and they mentioned groceries in particular this time (with latest CPI).
And I guess the car issue has a lot to do with the shortage of chips to run these new connected cars.
I guess you do hear how main street is feeling it in the wallet with inflation these days. Would be good to know how broadbased that really is.
I guess it depends where the particular Main Street is located.
Agip is right in a way, inflation is "regional", maybe due to something like distance from ports, or usual distances travelled using gasoline.
Also, the CPI-U is an urban number. There are other numbers. Personally I think the CPI is bull, and that basics like actual rent and house prices should be included, and the resulting numbers given regionally, and then maybe averaged according to population. More granularity would be nice. Maybe it's there, I haven't had the time to look for it.
Hey agip I took a look at the CPI numbers. It turns out that when you take the weighting into account, while used cars and gasoline are still the biggest components, they are only so by a small amount, for example:
1.678 Used Cars
1.499 Gasoline
1.450 Shelter (mostly OER)
0.998 Food
Or, I think that's how it works out, more or less. Did this in 2 seconds, might be wrong. OER has such a high weight that it ends up adding a lot--and since the first 2 can be strongly affected by behavior yet OER not really, it is probably the realistic biggest contributor to the CPI. Haven't done a deep dive, that is just my sense of it.
You're wrong, have to divide by 7.526. So;
Used Cars 22.3%
Gasoline 19.9%
Shelter 19.3%
Food 13.3%
These 4 categories accounted for almost 75% of the YoY increase in the seasonally adj CPI.
Sold about 40% of my SARK Friday. I’ll begin to buy it back; perhaps even today.
Good luck and keep us informed.
I was tempted to nibble on it (ARKK), but too much going on to focus on it.
I'm trying to migrate to a bit more nasdaq index etf and less of the tech bias, as I cut down on leveraging in general.
Seattle,
I will stay on hold for the day. Wife and I were up at 3:00 am. She is four hours into major surgery; Hartman takedown. So I am a little foggy and not alert enough to do much. Hospital kicked me out as part of Covid protocols. I am getting hourly updates from the nurse while watching markets from at home.
I was tempted to nibble on it (ARKK), but too much going on to focus on it.
I'm trying to migrate to a bit more nasdaq index etf and less of the tech bias, as I cut down on leveraging in general.
Seattle,
I will stay on hold for the day. Wife and I were up at 3:00 am. She is four hours into major surgery; Hartman takedown. So I am a little foggy and not alert enough to do much. Hospital kicked me out as part of Covid protocols. I am getting hourly updates from the nurse while watching markets from at home.
I will stay on hold for the day. Wife and I were up at 3:00 am. She is four hours into major surgery; Hartman takedown. So I am a little foggy and not alert enough to do much. Hospital kicked me out as part of Covid protocols. I am getting hourly updates from the nurse while watching markets from at home.
Looks like the former comedian of a ukrainain president made a joke about the invasion being on wednesday and as they shot around the world translations didn't reflect the humor. So the SP500 dropped 1% in a heartbeat. Thanks dude.
Looks like the former comedian of a ukrainain president made a joke about the invasion being on wednesday and as they shot around the world translations didn't reflect the humor. So the SP500 dropped 1% in a heartbeat. Thanks dude.
If that was what happened just in the last hour or so, I have him to thank for picking up some VGT at my limit price.
If it was Trump, nothing would have happened. What does that tell ya?
SP from one music fan to another...did you watch the halftime show? Do you get at all interested by that music?
I mean I listen to 'black' music day and night from the pre-hip hop era. I just can't get at all interested in that stuff. And I'm almost in its age cohort. I'm pretty much the same age as those characters. And I grew up in one of the hip hop centers of the continent so it was all around me.
I wish I liked hip hop - it would add an entire galaxy of music to explore. But I just don't get it.
Obviously this is 75% just getting old. but 25% of it is growing up on that blues/rockabilly family tree...hip hop isn't on that tree. It's a different culture. Not mine. Ach getting old.
SP from one music fan to another...did you watch the halftime show? Do you get at all interested by that music? I mean I listen to 'black' music day and night from the pre-hip hop era. I don't listen to just 'white' music. But hip hop...I just can't get at all interested in that stuff. And I'm almost in its age cohort. I'm pretty much the same age as those characters. And I grew up in one of the hip hop centers of the continent so it was all around me. I wish I liked hip hop - it would add an entire galaxy of music to explore. But I just don't get it. Obviously this is 75% just getting old. but 25% of it is growing up on that blues/rockabilly family tree...hip hop isn't on that tree. It's a different culture. Not mine. Ach getting old.
SP from one music fan to another...did you watch the halftime show? Do you get at all interested by that music? I mean I listen to 'black' music day and night from the pre-hip hop era. I don't listen to just 'white' music. But hip hop...I just can't get at all interested in that stuff. And I'm almost in its age cohort. I'm pretty much the same age as those characters. And I grew up in one of the hip hop centers of the continent so it was all around me. I wish I liked hip hop - it would add an entire galaxy of music to explore. But I just don't get it. Obviously this is 75% just getting old. but 25% of it is growing up on that blues/rockabilly family tree...hip hop isn't on that tree. It's a different culture. Not mine. Ach getting old.
When it was over, i found myself saying exactly the same. Left me really cold, just couldn't sink my teeth into any of it.
Which is a little unusual, because last year I got on a YG binge, and if you don't know this song, this could be a good intro: "YG & Nipsey Hussle "FDT""
I think in terms of hip hop, that stuff at half time just wasn't raw enough.
Listening to some now, and it's definitely not bad, Not exactly on my MP3 playlist, but so much better than the SB Halftime show.
Hey agip I took a look at the CPI numbers. It turns out that when you take the weighting into account, while used cars and gasoline are still the biggest components, they are only so by a small amount, for example:
1.678 Used Cars
1.499 Gasoline
1.450 Shelter (mostly OER)
0.998 Food
Or, I think that's how it works out, more or less. Did this in 2 seconds, might be wrong. OER has such a high weight that it ends up adding a lot--and since the first 2 can be strongly affected by behavior yet OER not really, it is probably the realistic biggest contributor to the CPI. Haven't done a deep dive, that is just my sense of it.
You're wrong, have to divide by 7.526. So;
Used Cars 22.3%
Gasoline 19.9%
Shelter 19.3%
Food 13.3%
These 4 categories accounted for almost 75% of the YoY increase in the seasonally adj CPI.
IDK how you calculated. IIRC I took the % increase, and multiplied it by the weight factor, so the figures I ended up with are percentage contributions to the 7.5% total--ie. CPI-U rose 1.678% due to the contribution of used cars alone.
Igy that sucks. Of course sending good vibes your way, I hope it works out well.
That kind of news makes today's market action seem kind of trivial, honestly.
Thanks Seattle and Maserati. Others too. Surgeon born and raised in Saskatchewan. He and another Doc saved her life back in spring when a non-cancerous elective procedure went awry. She was 18 days in the hospital went from 118 lbs to under 100 lbs. A month later lost about 30% of her hair. Tough gal. The Canadian is on it today, and I am hopeful for a good report.
lol gente I just read your post again...you do realize that if you divide them all by 7.5 the relative ratios stay the same, right?
So I was "wrong" because I gave the contribution to the 7.5% total? What part of "while used cars and gasoline are still the biggest components, they are only so by a small amount" is wrong? Do you believe that 22.3% and 19.9% of the entirety of the CPI gain are each substantially greater than 19.3%?
What the heck is going on with you? Why do you try to jump on things I post? It seems to me like you don't even read them carefully enough to make meaningful comments. Let's get it out in the open, did I write something on here that particularly pissed you off?
I for one am willing to overlook anything. Let me know if there is anything that I can do, short of leaving the thread.
I will say that for the month in question, as measured and weighted, gasoline and used cars--both more quickly and easily avoidable/minimizable via behavior than is shelter--constituted more than 40% of the total CPI-U rise. And again, that calculation is using the fiction that is OER, rather than available hard data.
Igy that sucks. Of course sending good vibes your way, I hope it works out well.
That kind of news makes today's market action seem kind of trivial, honestly.
Thanks Seattle and Maserati. Others too. Surgeon born and raised in Saskatchewan. He and another Doc saved her life back in spring when a non-cancerous elective procedure went awry. She was 18 days in the hospital went from 118 lbs to under 100 lbs. A month later lost about 30% of her hair. Tough gal. The Canadian is on it today, and I am hopeful for a good report.
Igy
I just read about it. Wish there was something I could do, I feel powerless-at-a-distance.