Casual Observer, again you don't give the right load to the change of training.
Since the first point is to define WHICH WR are clean, and which WR can be with doping, we need to start from the higher quality, not from what happens with athletes of medium level.
First question : WHY SOME ATHLETE CAN BECOME WR HOLDER ?
First answer : Because has more talent that the high average, because has better training, and because has the better occasions in competition.
We have to analyze the above points.
1) The category of athletes with ECCEPTIONAL TALENT (able to hold a WR) is very specific. We can discuss if can include the first 50 all-time in the world, or at max the first 100 all-time. In this case, remaining in the middle distances events, we have the following limits, for the first 50 and the first 100 all-time :
800m : 1'43"22 - 1'43"82
1500m : 3'30"77 - 3'31"96
3000m : 7'31"20 - 7'34"77
5000m : 12'55"52 - 13'00"60
10000m : 26'58"38 - 27'13"94
3000m SC : 8'08"14 - 8'12"04
HM : 59'22" - 59'44"
Marathon : 2:05'30" - 2:06'26"
More the athletes run fast, MORE THEY ARE FAR FROM THE AVERAGE OF THE runners WHO ARE THE SUBJECTS OF THE SCIENTIFIC INVESTIGATIONS ABOUT THE EFFECTS OF EPO.
So, if we want to have some data with some REAL value, WE NEED TO INVESTIGATE THE SPECIFIC CATEGORY, AND THIS IS EXACTLY THE OPPOSITE OF YOUR IDEA.
In Letsrun there is somebody thinking is not possible running fast without doping. How much is FAST in their mind ? The level of the number 100 in the World is already so fast that it's not possible running SO FAST without doping ? And, in this case, ALL THE TOP 100 ARE DOPED, but were so smart that it was not possible to find for them any illegal substance, while, for example, sprinters were so stupid that 50% of the top in the world were caught for something illegal ?
2) About training. Do you have some idea about the training the best in the world are doing ? Do you think researchers have some idea about it ? So, if they don't have idea about the training of the top athletes (in altitude), do you think they can know HOW MUCH IS THE LEVEL OF PERFORMANCE TOP ATHLETES CAN REACH WITHOUT ANY DOPING ? And, when they can see some top athletes with his training (that for researchers is something new), DO YOU THINK THEY CAN HAVE SOME IDEA OF THE LEVEL OF PERFORMANCES THEY CAN REACH ADDING EPO TO THEIR TRAINING ?
Why I don't believe EPO can work with these athletes ?
Because I very well know that ALL THE BEST ALL-TIME RAN THEIR BEST TIMES CLEAN (if I'm not sure about the top 100, I can clearly say 95 of them, including the top 10 in almost every event).
3) About the opportunities. In 2006 I had, in Zurich meeting, a budget of 20,000 USD for the pacers of 3000m steeple, in order to pace Shaheen trying a WR. The same every time Kenenisa tried some WR, and in normal competitions there were not less than 10,000 USD for the rabbits.
This till 2008. After that period, the following things happened :
a) The total money for every meeting of Diamond League was reduced every year (now is less than 50% of the budget of 10 years ago)
b) The money for the rabbits disappeared, so the races became slower, because there was no more interested to pay rabbits without any athlete able to attack the WR
c) The events of long distances were cancelled in many meetings (10,000m practically everywhere, but also the number of 5000m of high level was drastically reduced)
d) As result of the first 3 points, the most talented young African tried to move immediately to road races. The event of HM was the one having more advantage by this situation, because ALL THE YOUNG SPECIALISTS of 5000 and 10000m had the possibility to run a fast HM when still very young, when instead for a full Marathon they need to have not less than 2 years of preparation.
And don't tell me African didn't have tests out of competition. It's true that in Kenya and Ethiopia the local Antidoping Agency didn't do OOC tests, but ALL THE TOP ATHLETES (the one in top 30 in the World) were tested OOC several times in Kenya and Ethiopia, by a pool of testers IAAF and WADA, coming from South Africa or directly from Europe.
Who lives the most part of time in Kenya, well knows how many tests there are : every week we have some doctor of antidoping arriving in the training camps for testing the athletes who are in top 30 in the world (so, in regime of whereabouts).
But you must understand that an athlete running marathon in 2:07 is out of the whereabouts, because not in top 30 in the world. The same for athletes running HM in 1 hour. This means that these athletes NEVER are tested OOC, exactly how happens for sprinters running 10.02 or 45.06, who can be tested in their Country if are among the best in the National Lists (but, if you are a Kenyan for 1 hour or for 2:07, in the National list you are number 20, so THERE IS NO COUNTRY IN THE WORLD TESTING OOC ONE ATHLETE WHO IS N. 20 IN THE NATIONAL LISTS).
So, all your explanations about the scientific approach we need are PURE ELUCUBRATIONS, because it's exactly the opposite : it's not who believes EPO doesn't work for top athletes born, living and training in altitude who has to demonstrate this fact, but is who believes EPO works in any case that has to demonstrate this true, also with a particular category, WORKING WITH CONDITIONS THAT NEVER WERE TESTED BEFORE : Top talent, best training, particular conditions (always in altitude), best opportunities.
NO ONE OF THESE POINTS REGARD AVERAGE ATHLETES, so we continue to look at physiology as an INDUCTIVE SCIENCE instead of as DEDUCTIVE SCIENCE, that means it can only study the DIRECT PHENOMEN, instead thinking about a TREND based on different results investigated with athletes very far from the top in any situation (talent, training, environment, opportunities, professionalism and motivation).
