Official Idaho HS XC 2023 Thread

Predictions for districts today? Rocky vs Boise is the big matchup on both genders

Jens Knutsen of Boise dominated the JV 2 race. He was on varsity earlier this season

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Rocky Mountain varsity girls team beat Boise by 2

Was Boise running a full lineup? Because that could shake things up a bit in the northwest if true

Rocky wins both races, girls by 2, guys by 33.

Based off times, I don't think anyone but Heemeyer can crack the top 20 at NXR on a course that's going to be a little slower.

one of their guys won the JV race in 16:38. I think that should put him back on varsity

That’s silly. Hunter Hill was 24th last year. Ringert, Stadtlander, Sheesley, Helder, Stockett all ran on this course and all have the capability to be top 20.

Speed ratings for 5A District III

http://www.tullyrunners.com/XC2023/Ratings_Oct%2021.htm#Idaho

Heemeyer 185, Stadtlander and Ringert 182, Sheesley 180.

Rocky: 185, 175, 166, 164, 164, 160, 159.

Placements at last year's NXR with those marks:

13th, 44th, 97th, 101st, 102nd. It took 182.23 to get 20th last year. Heemeyer eclipsed it, Stadtlander was 182.22 and Ringert was 181.50.

Timberline girls looked awesome yesterday. Much more complete than they have been. Rocky girls backed up their Hoka times, but Boise would likely have won if they ran Zoe Sims in the varsity section. They definitely would have if Sammy Smith was still with the team. Eagle girls looked very weak- they were the most off of their season's bests for speed ratings.

Timberline boys did not look good at all. Ihmels coming across in 20th is just a killer to their team. He looks like he's moving backwards at the moment.

Here's a comparison to the teams that raced at Caldwell and their speed ratings from there to districts:

Rocky:

Lucas- 178 to 175 Tuft-153 to 166 Richardson- 163 to 164 Jensen- 163 to 164 Miller- 158 to 152 Goggins- 157 to 126 Kurtz- 155 to 159 Carlson- 146 to 153 Beeler- 145 to 153

Average (excluding Goggins because of injury): +3, although Tuft ran a solo race at Caldwell and was probably capable of much more at Caldwell. He ran 164 the following week in a varsity race. Excluding him bc of other circumstances (like excluding Goggins) would yield +1.57

Timberline:

Ihmels- 168 to 161 Marlatt- 160 to 158 Janecko- 145 to 156 Colley- 144 to 144 Wilson- 143 to 134 Average: -1

Eagle:

Ringert- 170 to 182 Stevens- 151 to 163 Taggart- 146 to 162 Porter- 144 to 148 Glenn- 141 to 135 Average: +7.6

Capital:

Antonnen- 166 to 171 Willett- 139 to 160 (Did not race Johannson at districts)

Meridian:

Stadtlander- 182 to 182 Gibb- 133 to 141 Hammons- 128 to 138 Fife- 118 to 131 Knox- 120 to 124 Average: +7

Rocky Mountain / Boise speed ratings

http://www.tullyrunners.com/XC2023/Ratings_Oct%2021.htm#Idaho

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Crater 2nd here and Rocky 3rd in the NW. No mention of Boise

Predictions for top 10 in 5A? Top 10 marks overall?

My 5A:

Heemeyer, Stadtlander, Ringert, May, Cervi-Skinner, Sheesley, Lucas, King, Helder, Bird

Going off this season’s speed ratings.

1) Heemeyer

2) Stadtlander

3) May

4-7) (in any order) Cervi-Skinner, King, Lucas, Ringert

8-9) Sheesley and Helder

10) Antonnen*

* I have trouble not seeing Kemper with 4:12 / 9:27 track times actually finishing 10.

Agree, although I wouldn't be surprised if Lucas got 4th or 5th, as he's gotten a head to head win over May and Cervi Skinner at the 3200m state meet last year.

Normally I would agree, but Kemper's speed ratings this year have been 164/173/173/174/169.

Sheesley's have been 169/171/176/174/180.
Helder's have been 176/175/173 (ran most of the race with one shoe)/175/177.
He's definitely the 3rd best guy on his team this year.

Heemeyer, Stadtlander, Ringert, May, Cervi-Skinner, King, Helder, Sheesley and Lucas have all had consistently better ratings. That doesn't leave a ton of room for error to be top 10.

Other Boise speed ratings:

Dodds- 162/161/160/167/157
Knutsen- 158/143/Don't see one/150/159
Roberts- 149/158/159/171/143
Bruce- 151/157/153/160/148

Average improvement from start of season to districts: +.57
Average improvement from start of season to season's best: +8.42
Removing the highest and lowest performance and averaging each runner's middle scores:
Sheesley: 173.66 Helder: 175.33 Kemper: 171.66 Dodds: 161 Knutsen: 154 Roberts: 155.33 Bruce: 153.66
Average improvement from start of season to average score from above: +2.28

If this is interesting/helpful, I'll do this for each team that qualified for 5A.

It is always interesting. If you look at how Meylan does his composite rankings, it seems like the rating just backs off a little from the best. Here is an example.

http://www.tullyrunners.com/XC2022/ChampsPreview2022.htm

Rocky Mountain:
Heemeyer: 187/187/183/185
Lucas: 178/176/169/178/180/175
Tuft: 153/164/171/173/171/166
Jensen: 163/163/165/166/167/164

Richardson: 163/160/163/154/163/164
Kurtz: 155/157/159/166/158/159
Thomas: 155/150/158/164/156/160

Average improvement from first meet of the year to districts: +2.71
Average improvement from first meet of the year to season's best: +6.71
Average removing high and low: Heemeyer: 186 Lucas: 176.75 Tuft: 168 Jensen: 164.5 Richardson: 162.25 Kurtz: 158.25 Thomas: 157.25
Average improvement from start of season to average performance: +2.57

I actually can't really do this for Centennial or Capital as they both have very few speed rated races. But I can for Eagle, Mountain View and Timberline.

Eagle and Timberline will be easier than Mountain View as they have a pretty clearly defined top 7. Mountain View will require some digging.

Eagle:
Ringert: 170/178/180/180/182
Stevens: 151/160/162/164/163
Taggart: 146/148/152/160/162
Porter: 144/148/158/155/148
Glenn: 135/148/136/128/141
Collins: 124/141/136/140/138
Vittoe: 131/136/140/136/139

Average improvement from first meet to districts: +10.28
Average improvement from first meet of the year to season's best: +13.28
Average removing the high and low: Ringert: 179.33 Stevens: 161.66 Taggart: 153.33 Porter: 150.33 Glenn: 137.33 Collins: 138 Vittoe: 137
Average improvement from start of season to average performance: +7.85

Timberline:
Ihmels: 168/167/168/165/161
Marlatt: 160/157/167/DNR/158
Janecko: 145/139/156/150/156
Jones: 148/145/DNR/157/152
Bean: DNR/121/149/144/145
Colley: 144/118/140/135/144
Wilson: 142/138/146/133/134

Average improvement from start of season to districts: +2.85 (Joey Bean accounts for +3.42 of this)
Average improvement from start of the season to season's best: +8.14 (once again, Joey Bean accounts for +4 of this)
Average removing high and low: Ihmels: 166.66 Marlatt: 159 Janecko: 150.33 Jones: 150 Bean: 144.5 Colley: 139.66 Wilson: 138
Average improvement from start of season to average performance: +2.71 (Average not including Joey Bean: -.57)