Let's talk Ohio HS XC

I don't really have much of a problem with these. After Mason it's likely that Mas. Jackson, St. X, Davidson and Lancaster are the next four best and there's reasons you can make a case for or against any of them.

The girls are going to come down to a four team race, maybe Mason and HD are slightly ahead of Perrysburg and Westlake but it wouldn't be a surprise if any of those teams win. May come down to who is the healthiest a month from now as some of these schools have a huge dropoff from 5 to 6.

The girls seem more stable and consistent.

With the boys, other than Mason being the clear and obvious #1, there are still a lot of unknowns. I feel like positions 2 through 8 are nearly interchangable. One think that has been consistent throughout the year, at least IMHO, is that Lancaster has been underranked.

docs.google.com

Boys Division III 2022 Cross Country Coaches' Poll

Pre-Season Poll 2022 Cross Country Coaches' Poll Division 3 Boys Date: 8/18/22 RANK,SCHOOL,POINTS,FIRST PLACE VOTES 1,Botkins,221,4 2,Ottawa Hills,220,4 3,East Canton,215,3 4,Mt Gilead,199,1 5,Norwalk St Paul,185 6,Columbus G...

Link:docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1pYZQ2I...

division 3

St. X can put their top 5 in front of HD 3rd. I don't care how good your #1 is, you're not recovering from that at the state meet. This is without two of their scorers from last year's state meet. Even if only one of those two return to form that would solidify them at the #2 team. Their potential as well as their current times put them among other teams ahead of HD easily.

oh.milesplit.com

Team Scores

Link:oh.milesplit.com/teamscores

As others have pointed out, I also think Mas. Jackson, St. X, HD, and Lancaster are all in contention for the podium. All of those teams have had both impressive and concerning results this season. Nobody has done enough to prove they are better than the others definitively.

While I didn’t think Mas. Jackson had a very good week, the voters seem to still think they are #2 by a good margin. I’m not sure I agree.

HD, St. X and Lancaster all took huge steps forward. I think Lancaster is the biggest unknown right now since they have probably had the weakest schedule. The best team they have raced is Dub. Coffman.

Springboro and TSF are trending the wrong way, but still have very good teams.

I’m fairly surprised Dub. Coffman is ranked 8th. They almost beat Lancaster at Lancaster last week, and this week they ran excellent.

The next few weeks will be very interesting. For example, we will learn next to nothing about TSF since they will not race a team anywhere near their level again until State. Mason and St. X could jog their way to conference and district titles but their region will be tough with Springboro. Meanwhile, we should see some pretty fun races in the Columbus and Cleveland/Akron area as soon as conference week is here, and the Columbus region especially will be very competitive.

Speed ratings
Davidson
193
171
159
157
156

St X
180
171
170
167
165

Based on speed ratings from the weekend, St Xavier is better than Davidson. St X’s 5th is much better than Davidson’s 3rd. I actually thought that Kafka would at least close the gap on Davidson’s #2. Kafka had the second fastest 3200 on the team during track.

Mason 17th nationally

results.timingfirst.com

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Link:results.timingfirst.com/meets/18449/xc...

Results from Eisenhart Inv yesterday.

Rice with a comfortable win. Steven Miller returned and looked like he could beat about anyone in Central Ohio other than Ackley. Pic North picks up the team win

The Midwest region is strong and deep this year. There could possibly be 2 at-large berths this year. Mason could get one if they keep getting better and closing that gap

Lancaster too. They went 15:33-15:36-15:38-15:46-16:09 at Unioto.

These guys could give Mason a scare at Obetz.

If they both knock out the #3 team in the region (Noblesville) that would be awesome. Noblesville is gonna be really good next year, they only have one senior

I like Lancaster and they really have been underrated all year long but Mason is honestly in a class by themselves this year.

I didn’t expect Thress to beat one or the Lanoys. If they can close the 4-5 gap they could do big things at state and NXR. Their 5th wasn’t even on varsity last year.

Lancaster has a pair of brothers and a set of triplets all on varsity. crazy

last year Newbury park had 2 sets of brothers, all going top 6 at nationals

For Lancaster to win state, there are 2 things that they need and are missing, but Mason has right now:

- A front runner

- A fifth man

I think they can put 3 ahead of Xu.

That’s the first performance I’ve seen all season that could challenge Mason.

Lancaster is very very good, no question. They very well could challenge for a state championship.

However, taking a look at the results, Unioto looked incredibly fast. PBs by almost everyone. Some by 30+ seconds in that front group.

Lancaster faced Dub Coffman twice this season and barely beat them both times.

Mason lost their 1/2 punch from last year’s state meet, and their top returner started racing late this season and might not even make varsity this year. If he makes it he probaby will not score .

So it’s pretty similar to losing your 1-2-3. But the guy who either didn’t finish or didn’t start at the state meet last year is now their clear number 1. They are still deep this year which helps.

Do you guys think Lancaster’s 5th guy can close the gap on their 4 at state/NXR?