Sold 69.40
very conservative
Sold 69.40
very conservative
Up around 69.90 now.
I think the rally might continue.
Bought 69.91
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
So, you only own and buy equities 100% all the time. Or, do you own a diversified portfolio of stocks, bonds and alternative investments?
Fair question.
I am 100% in equities 100% of the time.
Sold 70.20
Do you realize that if you hold a diversified portfolio of stocks, bonds and alternative investments you will outperform an all stock portfolio? The reason for that is you are moderating the volatitlity of the portfolio. Simply stated, if you limit portfolio drawdown you compound at a greater rate. If you have further interest in this topic Google Harry Markowitz and Modern Portfolio Theory.Best of luck.
So selling high earning stocks in favor of low earning bonds is your idea of a good investment strategy?
The markets continue to rise, as I predicted, but I will sit out the rest of the day.
I can't tell you how many have suggested that I trade on margin. When you're hot, it's tough to not fall into the trap of believing that you're intrinsically "right", rather than just having your finger on the current pulse. I have seen it happen to others.
I don't think it could happen to me, but I'm not about to find out. No borrowing for me.
So selling high earning stocks in favor of low earning bonds is your idea of a good investment strategy?
No, I am saying you are smater to have a balanced portfolio.
15 Yr Return Vanguard total Stock Market Index (VTSMX) 5.03%
15 Yr Return Pimco total Return Bond Fund (PTTRX) 6.76%
So........
Read more:
http://www.letsrun.com/forum/flat_read.php?thread=5369837&page=255#ixzz3dQwjvc7m
So you're saying that would have been wise for the past 15 years. What about the past 5? What about the next 15? No one knows what is going to happen. We do know that right now, stocks blow away bonds.
"right now, stocks blow away bonds"
OK, that should give you cause for concern and not comfort. Asset classes have tendency to revert to the mean. The S&P 500 is up over 300% since March 9, 20009 (666) and now 2,121.
shocked, I have him at 12.734% at the moment.
Check this out: you did your annualized calculation wrongly, you just multiplied the 2-month growth rate by 6. That's wrong because each gain is compounded, which is non-linear.
Just taking this 12.734% and assuming it was done over 2 months, and compounding it over 6 periods to get an annualized figure, chemical reagent will more than double his money in one year. Unless I am mistaken, it results in a factor of 2.05, or 105%
That is incredible. And that is after paying the cap gains on each trade. And by incredible, I mean not credible, in that there should be no way he will be able to keep this up for 12 months. The real question will be how long he can keep it up, and how he will manage his exit/transition, and how much he will lose on the back end. Nobody makes that kind of money, except for the best-of-the-best, in their best years, and not even then.
Let's say that he only started when he started posting, and is up only 12.734%, say maybe 15% pre-tax, that would mean that all his gains would vanish with a 15% drop in the markets. Of course the longer he goes on, the more of a buffer he will have.
Very strange to have somebody posting these trades publicly, and in such a bizarre forum. I don't get it, but I cannot look away.
It's more reasonable to think that he will only execute maybe 60 trades per year, giving him around a 50% after-tax return. Still, that's huge, especially since it is actually realized.
So I should bail out if stocks because they're going to go down at some point? Using that logic, no one would ever buy them.
What gives me cause for concern is the bond market that you think we should be investing in. Anybody with at least half a brain can see the bubble there. That's the real reason that stocks are currently vastly superior to bonds.
Well sorry you are wrong on that point. Bonds are as diverse as the world of stocks. Some bonds are positively correlated to a rising interest rate environment. Conventional wisdom is what your are quoting and rarely is it that simple. Although volatility in the bond market can lead to losses, I doubt those losses will be any where near the potential loss in stocks. A ten year US Treasury Bond still guarantees an annualized return of 2.3%. The 15 year return of the S&P 500 is 4% and that includes dividends, and you are looking backward from a all time high levels in the S&P 500.
Sorry but that's not how trading works, especially market orders. While anybody would love to double their money in a year, something like this won't get you there, because there are inefficiencies. This is not a get-rich-quick scheme.
Why do you keep harping about 15-year numbers? Where are the 5-year numbers I asked for? Why do you avoid talking about those? And while you're at it, look up the numbers since 1930. Your tunnel vision is why you are so clueless. Try to be more objective and you'll learn something.
all time high today for US stocks, measured by Vanguard total stock market index
huah
i never would have predicted a 'goodbye athens' rally
the financial markets are amazing things - i love them to death
Sally, not to be rude, but it is you that needs to learn something. I am merely pointing out that you would be better off in a diversified portfolio rather than being in an all equity portfolio. A business cycle is seven years, fifteen years includes two complete business cycles. Before you become a critic you should read more. Google Modern Portfolio Theory, that would be a good start. Also, Why Markets Crash. Perhaps afterwards you would have a better understanding of my point.
Chemical Reagent wrote:
The markets continue to rise, as I predicted, but I will sit out the rest of the day.
I can't tell you how many have suggested that I trade on margin. When you're hot, it's tough to not fall into the trap of believing that you're intrinsically "right", rather than just having your finger on the current pulse. I have seen it happen to others.
I don't think it could happen to me, but I'm not about to find out. No borrowing for me.
Not to mention you'll need real money to open a margin account.