Down goes the Dow

Bought at 68.27

Not confident

Sold 68.77

Chemical, your timing is uncanny. You really are like a lucky charm. Have you ever thought of putting together an investment club? How about some sort of fund where schleps like me can put in $1k each, and let you trade it? idk if that's legal or not, but it would sure be fun to have some skin in the game. surely there must be some low dollar amount that we could start a letsrun club with, without having to do licensing and all that. are you licensed btw? Just thinking out loud, i would love to get in on this action. I told a co-worker about this thread, and he suggested you should manage our 401k lol. Seriously, think about it, I would be in for $1k

Small-time wrote:

Chemical, your timing is uncanny. You really are like a lucky charm. Have you ever thought of putting together an investment club? How about some sort of fund where schleps like me can put in $1k each, and let you trade it? idk if that's legal or not, but it would sure be fun to have some skin in the game. surely there must be some low dollar amount that we could start a letsrun club with, without having to do licensing and all that. are you licensed btw? Just thinking out loud, i would love to get in on this action. I told a co-worker about this thread, and he suggested you should manage our 401k lol. Seriously, think about it, I would be in for $1k

A person with $1 million achieving 65% returns (after tax) (see post by "Schocked" on page 253) would become the wealthiest person on the planet in 23 years.

agip wrote:

Cherry Guy wrote:

Cherry picked the highest indicator of the several contained in the source you provided.

1) who are you talking to

and

2) what indicator, what data series was cherry picked?

Short term memory problems too?

Not At All Ralph wrote:

[quote]agip wrote:

[quote]How Dim is agip wrote:

[quote]agip wrote:

ok I was inexact - I meant compound returns, not compound interest. The US stock market is up 8.5% per year for the last 10 years -

Source?

________________________________________

vanguard total stock market index - ticker VTSMX

10 years 8.23% per year

Read more:

VTSMX 0.57 0.89 -0.71 1.34 3.42 10.29 18.83 15.91 8.24 5.03

S&P 500 TR USD 0.57 0.82 -1.05 1.23 2.79 10.41 18.50 15.89 7.89 4.42

Category (LB) 0.52 0.84 -0.91 1.07 2.73 8.48 17.76 14.46 7.26 4.70

15 Yr Return Vanguard total Stock Market Index (VTSMX) 5.03%

15 Yr Return Pimco total Return Bond Fund (PTTRX) 6.76%

So........

Ok, I thought about it again as you suggested. Now I'm even more convinced that I'm right. Greece's economy is a minuscule part of the EU. If they collapse, it will be akin to a mosquito bite.

Sorry small-time, I can't do it. There's too much red tape, too much fiduciary duty, and too much potential liability and insurance. This is a highly regulated industry. For your protection, lol

But know this: even though I have always beat the markets by trading (although I was all-in for a few years including 2013), and even though I am cruising along at a good clip this year, the type of thing I am posting is based on a pattern, which likely will not last any longer than the beginning of the rise of interest rates, sometime later this year. The best analogy I can make is that we are in an el nino event--but when that breaks down, the current model will lose its predictive value. So this ride will definitely end.

That's not to say that I won't have success in the following environment, whatever it may be; but it may be such that it will be more worth being "all-in" once again, at least for a while, rather than actively trading. Or, IF that future environment will have a pulse, I might be able to read it, and will try trading accordingly.

And let me tell you, IF I could keep this up for 23 years, so could everyone else, and nobody would be the richest person on the planet, we would all be equal. It is only the fact of it being a limited opportunity that makes it at all worthwhile. Otherwise, it would just be like a regular job.

Chemical Reagent wrote:

Sold 68.77

Let me guess; another "large block"

Inquiring minds want to know; how many shares traded? Also, still waiting to hear number of shares traded on 6/15..

You don't trade, do you? Not only will I not tell you volumes, I won't tell you at exactly what prices the trades execute. Nor will I tell you anything else about my trading activities, or the exact activities of my partners.

The only reason I have posted what I have has been to illustrate something to those on here who disparage or decry trading relative to investing.

There is room for both activities.

Also gente, there are many different types of relationships among people and groups, many of which you are no doubt unaware, especially when it comes to trading. Don't make the mistake of thinking that you know what is going on, because you almost certainly do not. No offense, just don't want you to go too far down the unfulfilled rabbit hole you seem to be starting down.

I will leave it at that.

Well we may see if your mosquito bite analogy plays out that way. On the other hand a Greek default does have ramification for the borrowing costs of Italy, Spain and Portugal.Your mosguito bite could morph into West Nile virus infecting the rest of the Continent.

OK, I will give you general commodities, if you give me oil, Baltic Dry Index, and Cina GDP.

My belief is that central bank policy has allowed business models that are cannot last to survive a little longer. Debt be it personal or governmental are at record highs. At some point you are at a consumption breaking point. In my mind is the appropriate model to continue to push consumption thru increase indebtedness in an effort to grow an economy? On the other hand, it makes more sense to me, for our country, to emphasize more savings and reduce debt. That is what are country did in the past.

Also, going back to stock valuatons, it is simple logic to me. If one pays a record high price for an investment, and it can be any investment, the long term return on that investment will be less than optimal. If one agrees with that statement, then valuations do matter.

The reason I posted to this thread is I see many comments here that are not grounded in financial literature or financial history. What i have posted represents my education and experience in the industry.

I have no other agenda.

Respectfully Yours,

Igy

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

... If one pays a record high price for an investment, and it can be any investment, the long term return on that investment will be less than optimal. If one agrees with that statement, then valuations do matter.

...

This statement doesn't appear to mean much.

1) As the market heads up it will hit record high after record high. Does that mean one should stay out of the market as it heads up?

2) "less than optimal" ??? What do you even mean by this? If I get in when the market is rising and has hit a record high and it continues to rise then isn't that (getting in) my optimal option at that point? Or would it be better to wait it out until it has some sort of correction so that I am not paying a record high (but I may well be paying more than I would have if I have gotten in earlier at a record breaking high)? Or should I invent a time machine and go back and make that purchase a year before today's record-breaking high?

Sorry, but your statement sounds an awful lot like Will Rogers' - "Don't gamble; take all your savings and buy some good stock and hold it till it goes up, then sell it. If it don't go up, don't buy it."

I will answer it this way. If you invested a dollar in the S&P 500 in March of 2000 you did not get back to even until October 2007. if you invested a dollar in the S&P 500 in October of 2007 you did not get back to even until May of 2013. I believe with valuations where they are today, if you invest a dollar in the S&P 500, you will not get back to even until 2021 if not later.

If you think differently fine, but investment literature and my experience does not support your view.

And all I can say is put your money where your mouth is, and we'll see who is right.

Oh by the way, Will Rogres also said "i am more concerned with the return of my investment, than the return on my investment."

Igy

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

I will answer it this way. If you invested a dollar in the S&P 500 in March of 2000 you did not get back to even until October 2007. if you invested a dollar in the S&P 500 in October of 2007 you did not get back to even until May of 2013. I believe with valuations where they are today, if you invest a dollar in the S&P 500, you will not get back to even until 2021 if not later.

If you think differently fine, but investment literature and my experience does not support your view.

And all I can say is put your money where your mouth is, and we'll see who is right.

Oh by the way, Will Rogres also said "i am more concerned with the return of my investment, than the return on my investment."

Igy

So, you pick out a couple of particular dates that would not have been good to be invested in the market and you think that demonstrates something? Seriously? Is there some reason that you did not pick out the other 1,478 record highs other than that they would be a bit inconvenient for your argument?

In fact the investment literature does overwhelmingly support my view that the optimal strategy is to be maximally invested at all times. There are books/papers/articles/PhD Theses out the wazoo supporting this. Ever heard of the efficient market hypothesis? I mean, you can't be serious with that statement.

And as far as putting my money where my mouth is, in fact I have been 100% invested every single day since 1980 so I'm pretty sure I've got that covered as well.

I hear you. Re, debt and consumption...take a look at household debt service - it's pretty low in the U.S., which implies there is little systematic pressure on consumption from debt.

We will have to agree to disagree on valuations-I just don't see them at extremes, but you do. Cest la vie

So, you only own and buy equities 100% all the time. Or, do you own a diversified portfolio of stocks, bonds and alternative investments?

Bought last night before close at 68.66

I'm looking for a pretty big move today, as fed news sinks in

I might sell the bell...