"Pandemic of the unvaccinated" CONFIRMED

2600 bro wrote:

So vaccinated people are still extraordinarily protected from death?

You guys make my work easy here.

How did you determine that? Vaccinated individuals accounted for 71% of weekly deaths in MA, while 71% of the population is vaccinated. Please explain your reasoning.

bidenfixedcovid wrote:

Uhm...per the NY Times today, 10 worst states:

1. New Hampshire (#11)

2. Michigan (#29)

3. Minnesota (#16)

4. Rhode Island (#2) numero dos

5. Vermont (#1) yes numero uno in vaccinations

6. New Mexico (#13)

7. Wisconsin (#21)

8. Indiana (#40)

9. Massachusetts (#5)

10. Ohio (#34)

Wow, this ^^^ is awkward.

Link:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/covid-cases.html

It's almost like our mitigates are for nothing, that we have very little control over this. That the benefits to the vaccine are limited and fleeting, and it's perfectly reasonable for a healthy person to say NO F'ING THANKS!

All true ^^^.

PS: "Biden fixed Covid" - Harambe ~March 2021 is the when he/she/they/them declared this victory.

Awkward is right!

Here are deaths per 100K, over the last 7 days (as of 12/7).

The 10 states with the highest rate of Covid deaths are:

WY, MT, WV, MI, KY, TN, CO, PA, AZ, MN

Over the last 7 days, Vermont has had the third fewest Covid deaths (per 100K) in the country.

Please provide your thoughts Harambe

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.11.23.21266767v1

joed|rtt wrote:

Vaccinated individuals accounted for 11,321 new cases for the week of 11/28-12/4. For that time period, there were 27,167 confirmed cases, meaning vaccinated individuals comprised 42% of cases (71% of MA is fully vaxxed). Vaccinated individuals accounted for 61 of 86 confirmed deaths (71%) for the week of 11/28-12/4 (71% of MA is fully vaxxed). The hospitalizations get a little more tricky, as they only list new hospitalizations for 11/28-11/30, but if the three day average is extrapolated over the 7 day period, then the 273 new vaccinated hospitalizations compare to an estimated 745 total new hospitalizations over the period from 11/28-12/4 or about 37% of new hospitalizations (71% of MA is fully vaxxed). As noted, these percentages are all UNDERCOUNTS.

From 11-28 to 12-4 there were 125 confirmed COVID deaths, not 86. Meaning that vaxed were ~48% of deaths, not 71%. Without breaking things out by age group, we have a pretty large Simpsons effect so it's not really meaningful to calculate a vaccine efficacy but these ratios match what is seen in the UK and Israel which have similar vax numbers to MA, as far as I know. I.e. vaccines work great.

4-Dec-21 Confirmed Deaths 16

3-Dec-21 Confirmed Deaths 17

2-Dec-21 Confirmed Deaths 15

1-Dec-21 Confirmed Deaths 22

30-Nov-21 Confirmed Deaths 21

29-Nov-21 Confirmed Deaths 16

28-Nov-21 Confirmed Deaths 18

-

Daily(?) reminder: "CASES" ARE SIMPLY POSITIVE TESTS. THE ONLY *USEFUL* STATS ARE HOSPITALIZATIONS AND (ESPECIALLY) DEATHS.

Are some people likely to avoid vaccination, masking, AND testing (until/unless they're admitted to hospital)? We KNOW they are.

Are other people likely to get vaccinated, wear masks, AND get tested multiple times? We KNOW they are.

Particularly as the (apparently mild, at least so far) omicron variant spreads, we can expect a surge in "cases"--but what counts are the numbers of people being hospitalized and dying (and their vaxxed/unvaxxed status).

2600 bro wrote:

Please provide your thoughts Harambe

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.11.23.21266767v1

We found that infection-induced-immunity provided strong protection from infection in the second wave approximately one year later (fig. 1b and c). Protection was higher against more severe outcomes, with 64.5% protection from any infection (95% CI: 56.4%-71.1%), 69.2% protection from symptomatic infection (95% CI: 60.7%-75.9%), and 79.4% protection from moderate or severe infection (95% CI: 64.9%-87.9%).

"Natural immunity" falling back down to Earth very quickly, IMO.

Yes, it's protective. No, it's not vastly (or any?) better than vaccines.

2600 bro wrote:

Ivyguy wrote:

Hear, hear!

Good to hear. It got a bit old.

I miss my fanboys

The Lily Hammer wrote:

Since your link is behind a paywall, you're going to have to do better than that.

Worst in what way?

And then tell us in those states, who is getting hospitalized with Covid and who is dying of Covid? Vaccinated or unvaccinated?

I don't have a subscription to the NY Times, not sure why you need one. Maybe it blocks trolls?

I cited the exact same metric you did, so apples to apples.

Following up on this:

96+% of those 60+ y/o have recevied 1 dose in MA. Two doses, I couldn't find easy data but lets say it's 92% (They are not vaccinating that many seniors anymore as far as I can tell -- most have received 2 doses -- i.e. basically no partially vaxxed).

The average COVID death age was 75, so if we assume that 92% is a good vax % for the average COVID death, then we can do a rough vaccine efficacy calculation relying on our numbers from earlier:

48% of deaths among the vaxxed last week

52% among the unvaxxed

92% vaxxed

1-(0.48/.92)/(0.52/0.08) = 92% efficacy

bidenfixedcovid wrote:

The Lily Hammer wrote:

Since your link is behind a paywall, you're going to have to do better than that.

Worst in what way?

And then tell us in those states, who is getting hospitalized with Covid and who is dying of Covid? Vaccinated or unvaccinated?

I don't have a subscription to the NY Times, not sure why you need one. Maybe it blocks trolls?

I cited the exact same metric you did, so apples to apples.

I've been discussing hospitalizations and deaths.

You have Vermont listed as the 5th "worst" at something. Deaths? Hospitalizations? Cases? ICU admits? Patients on ventilators? Absolute #'s, or rates? What time frame?

Given the Becker Hospital Review article (which is based on the NY Times data) which I linked, which shows Vermont as having the 3rd fewest deaths per 100K (actually tied for 2nd) in the country over the past week, I'm curious what you're talking about.

Looks good to me.

Pretty much exactly inline with the other countries that keep excellent records!

I was going through the same chart. They must have just updated it, because when I went through the same chart just before, these were the numbers:

4-Dec-21 Confirmed Deaths 1

3-Dec-21 Confirmed Deaths 0

2-Dec-21 Confirmed Deaths 11

1-Dec-21 Confirmed Deaths 21

30-Nov-21 Confirmed Deaths 21

29-Nov-21 Confirmed Deaths 16

28-Nov-21 Confirmed Deaths 16

So 49% of deaths for a vaccination rate of 71%. Yes there is a Simpson's paradox, but it's not as pronounced as you like to imply (especially when it comes to deaths and now that vaccines are approved down to 5 years old). We are looking at total deaths, not CFR or some other metric that would be heavily skewed by large numbers of unvaccinated cases among younger age groups.

joed|rtt wrote:

I was going through the same chart. They must have just updated it, because when I went through the same chart just before, these were the numbers:

4-Dec-21 Confirmed Deaths 1

3-Dec-21 Confirmed Deaths 0

2-Dec-21 Confirmed Deaths 11

1-Dec-21 Confirmed Deaths 21

30-Nov-21 Confirmed Deaths 21

29-Nov-21 Confirmed Deaths 16

28-Nov-21 Confirmed Deaths 16

So 49% of deaths for a vaccination rate of 71%. Yes there is a Simpson's paradox, but it's not as pronounced as you like to imply (especially when it comes to deaths and now that vaccines are approved down to 5 years old). We are looking at total deaths, not CFR or some other metric that would be heavily skewed by large numbers of unvaccinated cases among younger age groups.

Another problem with looking recent states, they are always an underestimate as the numbers fill in.

If you are trying to calculate VE_death, there is certainly a Simpson's effect as the age groups dying of COVID largely are much higher vaxxed than the state average (in this case ~95% or more).

I did the math above with some conservative estimates and get very high efficacy against death. Good news!

2600 bro wrote:

Ivyguy wrote:

Hear, hear!

Good to hear. It got a bit old.

These posts were an embarrassment to the forum. In the future, we should call rojo immediately to report the offender and request that he/she be banned permanently. We should not allow this behavior to continue. It reflects on us. The LetsRun contact number is 844-538-7786.

fisky wrote:

2600 bro wrote:

Good to hear. It got a bit old.

These posts were an embarrassment to the forum. In the future, we should call rojo immediately to report the offender and request that he/she be banned permanently. We should not allow this behavior to continue. It reflects on us. The LetsRun contact number is 844-538-7786.

I second this.

fisky wrote:

2600 bro wrote:

Good to hear. It got a bit old.

These posts were an embarrassment to the forum. In the future, we should call rojo immediately to report the offender and request that he/she be banned permanently. We should not allow this behavior to continue. It reflects on us. The LetsRun contact number is 844-538-7786.

I agree.