The Des Moines Register pre-caucus poll also found that among these gung-ho Republicans, six percent would support Robert F. Kennedy Jr. rather than Trump, and eight percent would seek another third party choice.
Bottom line: At least 25 percent of Iowa Republican caucus-goers say they will not vote for Trump in the general.
Keep in mind that Iowa is Trumpiest of Trumpland. Trump could crap in a jar, tell Iowans it is rocky road, they would eat it and ask for more.
Hopefully there is truth in this. I have several lifelong Republican friends who are "done" with Trump. One told me over lunch he can't stand Biden, thinks he is senile, and his aids are running the country, but will still vote for Biden over Trump. I realize much of the Republican party is FOR Trump, no matter what. I know some of these also. The problem for Republicans is that zero Democrats, very few moderates, and not even all Republicans will vote for Trump. He got 51% in one of the Trumpiest states in the US. This likely means another popular vote loss in 2024 (3rd time) and very likely an Electoral College loss just like 2020 (no guarantee, of course). If so, will Republicans learn their lesson then? Will they try to find a candidate who appeals to more than 50% of the population, or will they go even further right wing? Time will tell.
I don't count the chickens before they hatch.
Elections are always about convincing your voters or possible voters to actually show up. In 2016 Dems stayed home because they couldn't stand Clinton, so we ended up with Trump who was also not liked by many in the GOP.
In 2020 the only reason Biden won was because of mail-in voting due to COVID. You are NOT going to get that same turnout with in-person voting.
So, do more Republicans stay home in 2024 vs 2020? That is the only way Biden wins because MORE Biden voters are going to stay home/not vote because of utter laziness (it was stupid easy to mail in a vote).
I think the real reason we have all of the court cases and some states trying to get Trump off the primary ballot is a combined effort by GOP/Dems to keep Trump out of the WH.
Time will tell, but I'd bet a very large sum of money Trump loses the popular vote. Unfortunately, it is more about convincing a few voters in a few states. And as we can see from posts in this thread, a lot of people think a twitter/x feed is the news. So it could go either way.
Time will tell, but I'd bet a very large sum of money Trump loses the popular vote. Unfortunately, it is more about convincing a few voters in a few states. And as we can see from posts in this thread, a lot of people think a twitter/x feed is the news. So it could go either way.
The popular vote is meaningless particularly when the difference comes from California and New York alone.
What incentive do Republicans in California or Democrats in Idaho have to vote?
Voter turnout is very low and a huge percentage of the population doesn't even vote.
This post was edited 31 seconds after it was posted.
Time will tell, but I'd bet a very large sum of money Trump loses the popular vote. Unfortunately, it is more about convincing a few voters in a few states. And as we can see from posts in this thread, a lot of people think a twitter/x feed is the news. So it could go either way.
The popular vote is meaningless particularly when the difference comes from California and New York alone.
What incentive do Republicans in California or Democrats in Idaho have to vote?
Voter turnout is very low and a huge percentage of the population doesn't even vote.
I'm still kind of upset I moved to a state that makes me vote twice. That's two lines I have to wait in!
Time will tell, but I'd bet a very large sum of money Trump loses the popular vote. Unfortunately, it is more about convincing a few voters in a few states. And as we can see from posts in this thread, a lot of people think a twitter/x feed is the news. So it could go either way.
The popular vote is meaningless particularly when the difference comes from California and New York alone.
What incentive do Republicans in California or Democrats in Idaho have to vote?
Voter turnout is very low and a huge percentage of the population doesn't even vote.
California and New York try to game the system by throwing tons of money at battleground states in a desperate attempt to Californicate the country. They are almost exclusively behind national popular vote ballot measures in different states.
Hopefully there is truth in this. I have several lifelong Republican friends who are "done" with Trump. One told me over lunch he can't stand Biden, thinks he is senile, and his aids are running the country, but will still vote for Biden over Trump. I realize much of the Republican party is FOR Trump, no matter what. I know some of these also. The problem for Republicans is that zero Democrats, very few moderates, and not even all Republicans will vote for Trump. He got 51% in one of the Trumpiest states in the US. This likely means another popular vote loss in 2024 (3rd time) and very likely an Electoral College loss just like 2020 (no guarantee, of course). If so, will Republicans learn their lesson then? Will they try to find a candidate who appeals to more than 50% of the population, or will they go even further right wing? Time will tell.
I don't count the chickens before they hatch.
Elections are always about convincing your voters or possible voters to actually show up. In 2016 Dems stayed home because they couldn't stand Clinton, so we ended up with Trump who was also not liked by many in the GOP.
In 2020 the only reason Biden won was because of mail-in voting due to COVID. You are NOT going to get that same turnout with in-person voting.
So, do more Republicans stay home in 2024 vs 2020? That is the only way Biden wins because MORE Biden voters are going to stay home/not vote because of utter laziness (it was stupid easy to mail in a vote).
I think the real reason we have all of the court cases and some states trying to get Trump off the primary ballot is a combined effort by GOP/Dems to keep Trump out of the WH.
Alan
Very prescient analysis. Turnout will likely be down in 2024, but I expect a knock-down drag out fight over mail-in voting with a heavy emphasis on the argument surrounding "disenfranchisement."
To add to what you said: Biden has a bit of an ego problem. There are *many* voices on the Dem side who want him to step down and let someone else run. But his response is, basically, "I'm the only one who can beat Trump." Wish him luck in the rematch.
Polymarket | This market will resolve to “Yes” if Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is the candidate who receives the most votes in the 2024 U.S. presidential election, otherwise this market will resolve to “N...
Elections are always about convincing your voters or possible voters to actually show up. In 2016 Dems stayed home because they couldn't stand Clinton, so we ended up with Trump who was also not liked by many in the GOP.
In 2020 the only reason Biden won was because of mail-in voting due to COVID. You are NOT going to get that same turnout with in-person voting.
So, do more Republicans stay home in 2024 vs 2020? That is the only way Biden wins because MORE Biden voters are going to stay home/not vote because of utter laziness (it was stupid easy to mail in a vote).
I think the real reason we have all of the court cases and some states trying to get Trump off the primary ballot is a combined effort by GOP/Dems to keep Trump out of the WH.
Alan
Very prescient analysis. Turnout will likely be down in 2024, but I expect a knock-down drag out fight over mail-in voting with a heavy emphasis on the argument surrounding "disenfranchisement."
To add to what you said: Biden has a bit of an ego problem. There are *many* voices on the Dem side who want him to step down and let someone else run. But his response is, basically, "I'm the only one who can beat Trump." Wish him luck in the rematch.
It says a lot about the complete lack of depth on Democrat bench that there's no one more viable than a dementia ridden fool like Biden.
Very prescient analysis. Turnout will likely be down in 2024, but I expect a knock-down drag out fight over mail-in voting with a heavy emphasis on the argument surrounding "disenfranchisement."
To add to what you said: Biden has a bit of an ego problem. There are *many* voices on the Dem side who want him to step down and let someone else run. But his response is, basically, "I'm the only one who can beat Trump." Wish him luck in the rematch.
It says a lot about the complete lack of depth on Democrat bench that there's no one more viable than a dementia ridden fool like Biden.
Totally off. Nothing to do with depth (there are several who would be light years better than Trump and his grovelers) and everything to do with the party command getting behind the one they think can win . For 2020, they assessed, and correctly, that the majority of Americans preferred vanilla ice cream over another 4 years of recklessness and division. They are making that bet again. Why would they mess with a winning team at this stage especially when the incumbent has a massive political and financial advantage?
Elections are always about convincing your voters or possible voters to actually show up. In 2016 Dems stayed home because they couldn't stand Clinton, so we ended up with Trump who was also not liked by many in the GOP.
In 2020 the only reason Biden won was because of mail-in voting due to COVID. You are NOT going to get that same turnout with in-person voting.
So, do more Republicans stay home in 2024 vs 2020? That is the only way Biden wins because MORE Biden voters are going to stay home/not vote because of utter laziness (it was stupid easy to mail in a vote).
I think the real reason we have all of the court cases and some states trying to get Trump off the primary ballot is a combined effort by GOP/Dems to keep Trump out of the WH.
Alan
Very prescient analysis. Turnout will likely be down in 2024, but I expect a knock-down drag out fight over mail-in voting with a heavy emphasis on the argument surrounding "disenfranchisement."
To add to what you said: Biden has a bit of an ego problem. There are *many* voices on the Dem side who want him to step down and let someone else run. But his response is, basically, "I'm the only one who can beat Trump." Wish him luck in the rematch.
It's not Biden who decides, and could you imagine the Ds trying to find an alternative candidate right now? It would be a disaster. The safest play has always been another Biden run. And it is getting safer and safer as Trump gets closer to clinching a win on the R side. If you think the country is sick of having some old guy in charge, people are not gonna look at Trump and think he's the one lolz. It's 2 old dudes running against each other but one is a stone cold certified loser who is carrying a massive baggage of impeachments, lawsuits and self inflicted gunshot wounds.
It says a lot about the complete lack of depth on Democrat bench that there's no one more viable than a dementia ridden fool like Biden.
Totally off. Nothing to do with depth (there are several who would be light years better than Trump and his grovelers) and everything to do with the party command getting behind the one they think can win . For 2020, they assessed, and correctly, that the majority of Americans preferred vanilla ice cream over another 4 years of recklessness and division. They are making that bet again. Why would they mess with a winning team at this stage especially when the incumbent has a massive political and financial advantage?
yeah you can't unnominate the incumbent president...you just can't. If the Dems did that they would be saying the Dem party had the wrong guy, they'd be stabbing him in the back, making him a lame duck useless for the last year or two of his presidency, etc. And incumbency usually has a lot of power behind it. Dude beat trump you know.
Not realistic to say Dems should have tossed Joe.
That said, the Dem bench isn't great, and neither is the R bench. I think politics are just so nasty and money ridden and these guys are paid so little that it doesn't attract good people.
Is anyone following the way Trump is acting like a petulant child in court today? Desperately trying to get the judge to throw him out to play into his innocent victim propaganda.
Think about this. Trumps daily insane, unbalanced, narcissistic, childish, lying conduct would get him fired in any executive position. He would be fired in any government position. He would be canned in any educational position. And he would also be fired if his job was a street sweeper.
Yet 30% if the country thinks he is qualified to run the country, be commander in chief of the military and safeguard all of our top secrets and nuclear weapons.
Is anyone following the way Trump is acting like a petulant child in court today? Desperately trying to get the judge to throw him out to play into his innocent victim propaganda.
Think about this. Trumps daily insane, unbalanced, narcissistic, childish, lying conduct would get him fired in any executive position. He would be fired in any government position. He would be canned in any educational position. And he would also be fired if his job was a street sweeper.
Yet 30% if the country thinks he is qualified to run the country, be commander in chief of the military and safeguard all of our top secrets and nuclear weapons.
you can say that but his legal team has basically ended the documents case, thrown real wrenches into the GA case and is succeeding in delaying everything else.
Democrats keep winning elections. In the recent special election in Florida district 35, the Democrat won the seat from a Republican in an area that had voted strongly Republican before.
Trump is dragging the Republican party down. Since the Republican party became the Trump party, they have been losing everything! And Trump will attack any Republican that crosses him viciously.
Elected Republicans are scared $hitless of Trump but they know he is a loser
Democrats keep winning elections. In the recent special election in Florida district 35, the Democrat won the seat from a Republican in an area that had voted strongly Republican before.
Trump is dragging the Republican party down. Since the Republican party became the Trump party, they have been losing everything! And Trump will attack any Republican that crosses him viciously.
Elected Republicans are scared $hitless of Trump but they know he is a loser
Democrats keep winning elections. In the recent special election in Florida district 35, the Democrat won the seat from a Republican in an area that had voted strongly Republican before.
Wow. That brings the Republican supermajority down to 84-36. A real blue tide.
Mitt could have added that Trump was also found to be running a fraudulent enterprise.
Mitt Romney: "You had a jury that said that Donald Trump had raped a woman, and yet I don’t think that seems to be moving the needle. There are a lot of things about today’s electorate I don’t understand.”
Democrats keep winning elections. In the recent special election in Florida district 35, the Democrat won the seat from a Republican in an area that had voted strongly Republican before.
Wow. That brings the Republican supermajority down to 84-36. A real blue tide.
Democrats winning a seat in a red district in a red state means nothing?
Mitt could have added that Trump was also found to be running a fraudulent enterprise.
Mitt Romney: "You had a jury that said that Donald Trump had raped a woman, and yet I don’t think that seems to be moving the needle. There are a lot of things about today’s electorate I don’t understand.”
The jury said he didn't rape her because there was zero proof of anything.