agip wrote:
Maser wrote:
They are on a tear, absolutely.
As I detail my failings on here, I will give you one more: I thought for tax reasons that there would be more selling at the end of 2021 than there was.
So here we go, the first real trading day of 2022, and BAM. Holy smokes. Now IDK what to do , these are not the levels at which I had hoped to buy in. Scheisse! Merde! I will now wait for a more opportune moment to make a US buy.
This feels like that blow-off top. My guess is that there will be only a tiny blip due to taper/rising rates, and that it is already mostly priced-in. Rates, lol—they will be raised from nothing to nothing, and will probably settle back down.
It’s got a rip-roarin’ feeling. It’s going to be smoking. No wonder Pelosi bought those calls. Wish I knew the strike prices etc. Honestly, this feels bitcoin-esque, at this point.
my hunch is that today's bump was hedgies taking off the hedges they slapped on in December to protect their big 2021 gains.
I think later in the week the math guys will plug in the much higher interest rates we're getting today and hit the sell button pretty hard.
Bonds getting crushed today - rates rising fast. Lately that has been bad for stocks, not good. Something else has added into the equation today. I think it's the selling of hedges.
This would make a lot of sense, and I never considered it.
My gut feeling is that if a sell-off due to higher interest rates was in the cards, it would have already surfaced, at least to some extent. I am interpreting this business as usual feel to the markets as a very positive sign that risks going forward are being factored in and are not going to trigger a significant down-turn.
This week should be interesting. Remember how last Monday started with a big surge, just to be followed by smaller declines for the rest of the week
.
And the fact that a oft-noted wise-tale is that as goes January, so goes the year. So even more scrutiny herein.
But I do like that selling the hedge positions after locking in solid year of gains theory. The question is where it goes from here.