Down goes the Dow

Sorry ghost, but exactly which posters who are concerned with buying investments for long term cash flow, are missing valuation?

Are you suggesting that there are currently no good buy-and-hold buys? And how does this relate to what other posters have been posting?

Greece? Insignificant.

1. Yes

2. You decided.

"Sorry ghost, but exactly which posters who are concerned with buying investments for long term cash flow, are missing valuation?

Are you suggesting that there are currently no good buy-and-hold buys? And how does this relate to what other posters have been posting?"

ghost: "1. Yes. 2. You decided."

I don't understand your response. Are you saying that there are currently absolutely no good buy-and-hold buys?

And to what does (2) relate? Surely you are not making the mistake of believing that I myself have recently been concerned with, as you put it, "buying investments for long term cash flow"?

Who then, and what have they said?

1. Yes, there are few good buy-holds.

2. re; valuation - many problems with making valuation too large an aspect of one's decision making process. Obviously, markets can remain overvalued for years and years - making decisions based on a PE that is, say 17 vs 15...you can sit out a lot of good years based on that. Like 2014 - SPX was up around 13%, no? but the market started that year overvalued. Deiciding to sit out 2014 based on valuation would have been very very expensive.

and anyway - according to JPM, the market is generally valued at its 25 year averages. if you want to include the 1930s then yeah, the market is a little overvalued. But times change, accounting changes, interest rates change...since we are valued at or slightly above 25 year averages, I'm not too worried about valuation.

Read more:

http://www.letsrun.com/forum/flat_read.php?thread=5369837&page=248#ixzz3cCq8L5yr

Sitting out 2014 would not have been "expensive" at all. Don't confuse a missed opportunity with expense.

Not my quote, reply to agip.

Mike Rossi thread has more posts than this one...hard to believe!

mikedowjonesrossi wrote:

Mike Rossi thread has more posts than this one...hard to believe!

What are they talking about in that thread? Why is it so long

Oh, whether a 47 year old ran 3:11 marathon, as if that is unusual.

Pointing Out the Obvious wrote:

Sitting out 2014 would not have been "expensive" at all. Don't confuse a missed opportunity with expense.

I generally disagree with this logic. opportunity cost is valid - we only have so much time to make money - missing a good period is as good as spending the money on a dumb purchase.

anyway, today small caps are up 70 bps while big caps are flat - says to me that the selling is winding up. I'd like the vix to be higher tho.

Looks like reagent might have timed another one well.

Weird how the market being down 2% feels bad these days.

We're living in a bull market boys - enjoy it.

On the other hand, bonds are getting tarred and THEN taken out behind the woodshed and THEN slapped upside the head.

it's never easy.

Does the bond market collapse signal something amiss? Where does that leave the argument that "the Fed has our back?"

I am afraid your Bull Market is on its way to hamburger meat.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Does the bond market collapse signal something amiss? Where does that leave the argument that "the Fed has our back?"

I am afraid your Bull Market is on its way to hamburger meat.

not sure why you think interest rates rising off the floor will end a bull market in stocks - I doubt historically a bull market has ever ended because "very low" interest rates became just "low." I could be wrong, but I doubt it. Bull markets rarely just peter out - usually a big event is needed.

It may drain some of the easy money out, but since the market is priced at around 25 year averages or maybe a nudge higher...I'm not terrified.

In the end, getting interest rates back to reasonable levels is a good thing - it will show that the economy is improving.

I agree that a return to normal interest rates is a good thing. However, my take is the low interest rates have led to a speculative bubble in risk assets: bonds, stocks, and housing. The economy may be improving, but stock prices are not supported by valuations.

We will see who is right over coming months. I will be happy to admit to being wrong.

Klondike5 wrote:

Down to 14,850 from a peak of 15,700 I believe.

Maybe 5%

What's the bottom?

I am betting sub 13,000

The Dow never went below 13,000 or even below 14,700 since you made your "bet", and is now at ~17,850. So what does that say about your financial acumen?

BTW I just doubled down before close on Friday at 67.88

Didn't think I would, but I did, and I feel good about it.

Monday, June 8, a very interesting day. All major indexes down at lunch.

Getting ready to buy more.

Chemical Reagent wrote:

Getting ready to buy more.

hmmm

the vix still isn't breaking out - could be more pain going from that measure