Unofficial 2019 D3 XC Thread (Official)

NCC destroys #8 team = Great

Williams destroys # 17 team by a little more = Hand them the trophy now

USTFCCCA shouldn’t have bumped NCC to #2, I ‘member what happened the last time they did that and SUNY G ‘members as well.

It's just a poll. Programs like NCC, and WashU don't pay attention to those polls. The progams and their coaches have been around the block a time or two and know to not fall into that trap. National polls just marketing. Puzzling over them is the equivalent of navel gazing. Programs that are new to doing well might get excited about bring ranked in the top 10 for the first time, ec. That's cool and understandable. Otherwise, the polls amuses me more than anything. The obsession with modeling Regional and Nationals results is going to be really when the actual results come in on Saturday.

It's hard to model culture, coaching experience, teams hit by respiratory bugs or failing to get out fast. It is fun to see how wrong the polls and models might be than how right it will be. I know NCC and WashU tend to hold back a bit for conference and regionals. How do you rank or model that? Go ahead and bet the rent on Nationals predictions by looking at conference or regional performances for high performing shoo-ins like those two programs and you might be sleeping in your car.

JD Drew wrote:

I kinda wish the coaches had waited a week to break North Central's #1 streak. If you're going to knock someone off the mountaintop, it should be when they actually lose. They haven't been beaten yet.

Yes. They have yet to lose to williams and therefore stay at 1 until otherwise beaten. USTFCCCA fked this one up bad and did them dirty. I'm by no means a NCC fan but I do believe they rightfully are #1 until they lose. Regional and Conference ranks don't say anything but come natty thats where the wheels all come off and its real racing head to head.

You're 100% right. All the more reason not to break a team's record streak as the #1 team because of regionals.

The USTFCCCCCCCCCCA has to make DIII interesting somehow, and this is how they do it. 2016 saw the same thing with Geneseo (tying with NCC during the year, being ranked #1 for a week, etc.). Need more foot traffic on the DIII page and bring more attention to the division in general.

I agree with the rankings - just basing it off how the USTFCCCA does their rankings. It makes sense. Can confirm that NCC could give a damn about the rankings (and I'm sure the same goes for Williams). But, gotta admit, it's going to add a little spice to the race for those viewers who are not as invested as some of us.

Now, for podium predictions:

1. Williams

2. NCC

3. CMU

4.LAX

Aidan Ryan is my individual pick, Watson 2nd, Matteucci 3rd. Watch out for the west having a good handful of AAs. Sorry south region.

Podium prediction

1. Williams

2. Carnegie Mellon

3. North Central

4. UW Lax

Individual prediction

1. Patrick Watson

2. Josh Schraeder

3. Aidan Ryan

The warts are gonna podium. You heard it here first.

It is supposed to rain in Louisville all of Friday morning and during the races on Saturday. It will be 40 degrees and very muddy. That favors the underdogs. It's anyone's guess what will happen now.

48 hr rule means we gotta party tonight!! where's everyone at??

Just wanted to let you all know that the New England region sucks sweaty balls.

Can confirm: he's part of the Williams team on Strava

OOOOOOO wrote:

Can confirm: he's part of the Williams team on Strava

How wild would it be if Farwell retired and Patel took over?

I just took a look at Patel's Strava profile. He said he was going to upload a massive backlog, but he still hasn't done it. Maybe he's just lying and he's done running.

North Central's top guy Osmulski was only 6th at regionals, but I'm guessing they were pack running, with just a 19 second spread. Still, Williams did look good. It'll be close, and North Central definitely has the history of getting the job done, but here's my prediction.

Carleton has been somewhat underdogs all season but their top three have rounded into form. Wartburg barely beat them last week, and I think they'll edge ahead.

1 Williams 83

2 North Central 90

3 Carnegie Mellon 180

4 Carleton 222

5 Wartburg 225

6 Johns Hopkins 253

7 SUNY Geneseo 273

8 Wis - La Crosse 284

9 Pomona-Pitzer 313

10 Washington U 327

All-Americans

1 Aidan Ryan Williams

2 Patrick Watson Stevenson

3 Ryan Cutter Chicago

4 Matt Wilkinson Carleton

5 Jared Pangallozzi Johns Hopkins

6 Danny Aschale Connecticut College

7 Matt Osmulski North Central

8 Ryan Cox Williams

9 Tyler Nault Wis - La Crosse

10 Lucas Mueller Carleton

11 Nick Matteucci Washington U

12 Gabe Pommier North Central

13 Joe Freiburger Wartburg

14 Josh Schraeder Wis - La Crosse

15 David Fassbender WIS-Whitewater

16 Noah Falasco RPI

17 Sean McAneny SUNY Geneseo

18 Theo Hendersen Middlebury

19 Ethan Widlansky Pomona-Pitzer

20 Samuel Gerstenbacher Elizabethtown

21 Nick Licari North Central

22 Tyler Morris Colby

23 Matthew Karee Carnegie Mellon

24 Kenneth Marshall Williams

25 Toler Freyaldenhoven Rhodes

26 Decker, Eli Colby

27 Cameron Meikle Carleton

28 Chase Hampton Otterbein

29 Weyessa McAlister Trinity (Conn)

30 Elias Lindgren Williams

31 Alex Makrounis North Central

32 Declan Hines Johns Hopkins

33 Morgan Shirley-Fairbairn Wartburg

34 Jonathan Ellis Calvin

35 Karl Wachter St. Thomas (Minn.)

11 Chicago

12 Calvin

13 Emory

14 RPI

15 Claremont-Mudd-Scripps

16 St. Olaf

17 Otterbein

18 Colby

19 Haverford

20 St. Thomas

21 Wis - Stout

22 MIT

23 John Carroll

24 Case Western Reserve

25 Berea

26 Amherst

27 St. Lawrence

28 Ithaca

29 SUNY Oneonta

30 Middlebury

31 UC Santa Cruz

32 Bates

Don’t All-Americans go to top 40?

Heard it here 1st wrote:

Podium prediction

1. Williams

2. Carnegie Mellon

3. North Central

4. UW Lax

Individual prediction

1. Patrick Watson

2. Josh Schraeder

3. Aidan Ryan

I like CMU as a team/school/etc, but they've got a huge weakness. They've always got depth, but never anyone who's a threat to finish in the top 10.

You can actually see this playing out every year - they'll have more guys getting points at conference on the track, but WashU has the winners.

Fastnbulbous wrote:

1 Williams 83

2 North Central 90

I have a feeling point totals will be in the triple digits this year - similar to 2012. Just not enough experience on either team(though, I'm only somewhat knowledgeable on William's team - correct me if this it's compromised of a majority of last year's team).

NCC

Williams

Pamona

UWL

Wash U

wilkinson

cutter

Aidan

nick gucci

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