agip wrote:
Oil crashing
Ports freeing up
Interest rates falling
Sounds like the inflation scare is starting to fade
https://twitter.com/bidenswork/status/1461732917864972297?s=21
Interest rates are falling?
agip wrote:
Oil crashing
Ports freeing up
Interest rates falling
Sounds like the inflation scare is starting to fade
https://twitter.com/bidenswork/status/1461732917864972297?s=21
Interest rates are falling?
investing noob wrote:
I'm up 13% on AMZN and 10% on AAPL since I bought the dips 3 weeks ago. Wish I got more.
Feel the same about my cars:
https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/2021-11-19_08-07-20.png?itok=tzrbQFBEwondering wrote:
agip wrote:
Oil crashing
Ports freeing up
Interest rates falling
Sounds like the inflation scare is starting to fade
https://twitter.com/bidenswork/status/1461732917864972297?s=21Interest rates are falling?
well by some definitions
the 10 year yield is lower now than a week ago and lower than a month ago
but probably more accurate to say it's in a trading range.
the street seems to now think the ending bell on the inflation trade has been rung.
TIPS getting slaughtered
gold getting slaughtered
commodities down but not hugely
REITS down a lot
but stocks are up.
probably has to do with Powell's renom but I'm not sure how that plays out.
So what do we do now about inflation? What's the play?
All time highs SPX and NAZ
not dow or r2k
https://www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/DXZ21/technical-chart?plot=BAR&volume=contract&data=I:1&density=L&pricesOn=1&asPctChange=0&logscale=0&im=1&sym=DXZ21&grid=1&height=500&studyheight=100&axis1=false&axis2=false&overlay3=GCZ21&axis3&isComparison=1agip wrote:
the street seems to now think the ending bell on the inflation trade has been rung.
TIPS getting slaughtered
gold getting slaughtered
commodities down but not hugely
REITS down a lot
but stocks are up.
probably has to do with Powell's renom but I'm not sure how that plays out.
So what do we do now about inflation? What's the play?
Times are Central Time Zone, so 8:00 AM is 9:00 AM Eastern Time Zone. Scarlet line, GZC21, is the December Gold Future Contract. Powell's renomination, affirmation of Fed independence.
la gente esta muy loca wrote:
https://www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/DXZ21/technical-chart?plot=BAR&volume=contract&data=I:1&density=L&pricesOn=1&asPctChange=0&logscale=0&im=1&sym=DXZ21&grid=1&height=500&studyheight=100&axis1=false&axis2=false&overlay3=GCZ21&axis3&isComparison=1agip wrote:
the street seems to now think the ending bell on the inflation trade has been rung.
TIPS getting slaughtered
gold getting slaughtered
commodities down but not hugely
REITS down a lot
but stocks are up.
probably has to do with Powell's renom but I'm not sure how that plays out.
So what do we do now about inflation? What's the play?
Times are Central Time Zone, so 8:00 AM is 9:00 AM Eastern Time Zone. Scarlet line, GZC21, is the December Gold Future Contract. Powell's renomination, affirmation of Fed independence.
how about a lil' ol' topic sentence and conclusion there, Tex?
agip wrote:how about a lil' ol' topic sentence and conclusion there, Tex?
+ 1
:-D
an affirmation of more of the same, higher used car prices 😷
VS-SJW-IR-TS idiot wrote:
agip wrote:how about a lil' ol' topic sentence and conclusion there, Tex?
+ 1
:-D
A picture is worth a thousand words.
Powell's renomination is an affirmation of Fed independence( market view ). Result, $ up; gold down. It seems you 2 haven't been following the feud within Democratic Party over Fed Chair. Lael Brainard's nomination was advocated by some members of the Democrat left, for reasons other than monetary policy, e.g. climate change. Thus, from a market perspective, Brainard's nom would appear tainted and Fed independence compromised. Brainard did get nominated for Vice Chair, Clarida's term expires in Jan. ( I'm not suggesting the Fed is apolitical, cough Greenspan cough,)
la gente esta muy loca wrote:
VS-SJW-IR-TS idiot wrote:
+ 1
:-D
A picture is worth a thousand words.
Powell's renomination is an affirmation of Fed independence( market view ). Result, $ up; gold down. It seems you 2 haven't been following the feud within Democratic Party over Fed Chair. Lael Brainard's nomination was advocated by some members of the Democrat left, for reasons other than monetary policy, e.g. climate change. Thus, from a market perspective, Brainard's nom would appear tainted and Fed independence compromised. Brainard did get nominated for Vice Chair, Clarida's term expires in Jan. ( I'm not suggesting the Fed is apolitical, cough Greenspan cough,)
good stuff.
Today:
tech now down 90bps
value is now up 120 bps
I suppose the deal is, going off Gente's post:
An independent fed will raise interest rates
that will hurt the present value of highly valued stonks like tech. Discounted cash flows at a higher interest rate.
so tech is selling off and money is going to the lower valued dividend/value names because higher rates won't affect their present value as much.
Let them eat soybeans:
la gente esta muy loca wrote:It seems you 2 haven't been following the feud within Democratic Party over Fed Chair.
Nope, not me, forgive my ignorance, but not being American, I don't stay that close to US political machinations. Probably I should...
VS-SJW-IR-TS idiot wrote:
la gente esta muy loca wrote:It seems you 2 haven't been following the feud within Democratic Party over Fed Chair.
Nope, not me, forgive my ignorance, but not being American, I don't stay that close to US political machinations. Probably I should...
I heard a few news blips about these issues, but just in passing.
Quite a reversal this morning on the Nasdaq and Teck, and saw some tidbit about it being due to inflation fears and its impact on tech. in particular. Seems to settling down to something approaching flat for the day.
Apple up however (again), and....Tesla is back in the driver's seat!
A view today from John Hussman:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
A view today from John Hussman:
https://www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc211120/
Wasted bandwidth.
well that was kind of wacky - an event probably 80% likelihood kinda ripped up the markets. Meaning Powell.
but probably it wasn't just Powell...the newspapers over the weekend were full of stories about the inflation/supply chain crises starting to get better so traders came into the day primed to dump inflation trades.
tech fell almost 3% from its daily high to its daily low
bonds were torn up badly - down 50-100 bps. Esp TIPS.
From Igy's piece, a great quote - the lament of all permabears - the need to say they don't mind missing out on giant gains as long as they - eventuaaaaaaaalllllllllyyyyyyy get to laugh at long investors. Here Grantham says clearly he doesn't mind losing his and his investors money as long as he isn't made to feel foolish in a bear market. Well it's been13 years of bull market, Jeremy. You might want to feel a bit foolish.
I’ve been very clear about what I consider a definition of success – and that is only that, sooner or later, you will have made money to have sidestepped the bubble phase.
– Jeremy Grantham, GMO
