Down goes the Dow

seattle prattle wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

How is that different than you or any other poster writing something that is clearly not true? Speculation may have always been part of the market, but what we are seeing is far beyond anything in the past. Over the last couple of days we have had several posts on how this is some new era absolving investors from any kind of metric resembling reality. Writing such thinking was a relic of the Depression experience even though the truth is the NASDAQ had a negative return from March 2000 through July 2016.

In terms of a 'metric based on reality', i harken back to the boy who cried wolf fairy tale.

It would be a more compelling warning except that it is identical to the warnings we have been hearing about valuations for the last 5 or 6 years regarding tech sector, which simply not played out (yet, if at all).

My personal feeling on crypto is that I honestly don't know, but i have enough reservations to not risk more than an insignificant amount. And since it seems to be an unjustifiable energy hog, i tend to dabble even less, and really should avoid it for that reason alone.

For that matter, look back at weed stocks, yesterday's craze. Many got involved with that, and solar stocks, too. We survived. It's not that big a deal, unless you choose to make it so.

Maser@ti wrote:

Zero cash flow-incorrect, if you choose to do so you can get paid for lending it.

Zero utility-incorrect. It is a symbolic representation of value and has some utility as does any other, including fiat.

Zero return long term-incorrect depending on your time frame. 10 years is already long for some people.

Crypto investors are homogenous-incorrect. Hodl’ers are not trying to get rich quick, and whales actually did get rich quick and are still largely invested, same as any IPO event.

GDP growing at 5%-only as measured by a measurement system optimized to reach such a conclusion; Q3 Shadowstats corrected GDP -0.05%

Honestly, resistance to understanding the utility of crypto other than as a speculative vehicle is strange. Nothing in life is guaranteed. “Full faith and credit”, in a system that has devalued the underlying asset more than 95% in a hundred years, and devalued it massively this year even by crooked standards.

Anyone who is actually diversified has some skin in the crypto game.

agip wrote:

Maser@ti wrote:

Zero cash flow-incorrect, if you choose to do so you can get paid for lending it.

Zero utility-incorrect. It is a symbolic representation of value and has some utility as does any other, including fiat.

Zero return long term-incorrect depending on your time frame. 10 years is already long for some people.

Crypto investors are homogenous-incorrect. Hodl’ers are not trying to get rich quick, and whales actually did get rich quick and are still largely invested, same as any IPO event.

GDP growing at 5%-only as measured by a measurement system optimized to reach such a conclusion; Q3 Shadowstats corrected GDP -0.05%

Honestly, resistance to understanding the utility of crypto other than as a speculative vehicle is strange. Nothing in life is guaranteed. “Full faith and credit”, in a system that has devalued the underlying asset more than 95% in a hundred years, and devalued it massively this year even by crooked standards.

Anyone who is actually diversified has some skin in the crypto game.

for 99.99% of crypto owners there is no cash flow.

it can't be a store of value if it loses half its value every year. Fiat money does not do that - nothing like that.

You have no idea if crypto will exist in 10 years. Fiat has lived for generations and has taxing and printing behind it. Crypto has 5-10 years of greater fool theory behind it. An investment with no cash flow or utility or history is not really an investment...just a gamble.

I'll agree that there are a few classes of crypto owners. I'm just talking about individuals here.

Won't even start down the rabbit hole of 'all economic statistics are meaningless and we've been in an inflationary depressionary tailspin since we went off the gold standard but we don't know it'

agip wrote:

Maser@ti wrote:

Zero cash flow-incorrect, if you choose to do so you can get paid for lending it.

Zero utility-incorrect. It is a symbolic representation of value and has some utility as does any other, including fiat.

Zero return long term-incorrect depending on your time frame. 10 years is already long for some people.

Crypto investors are homogenous-incorrect. Hodl’ers are not trying to get rich quick, and whales actually did get rich quick and are still largely invested, same as any IPO event.

GDP growing at 5%-only as measured by a measurement system optimized to reach such a conclusion; Q3 Shadowstats corrected GDP -0.05%

Honestly, resistance to understanding the utility of crypto other than as a speculative vehicle is strange. Nothing in life is guaranteed. “Full faith and credit”, in a system that has devalued the underlying asset more than 95% in a hundred years, and devalued it massively this year even by crooked standards.

Anyone who is actually diversified has some skin in the crypto game.

for 99.99% of crypto owners there is no cash flow.

it can't be a store of value if it loses half its value every year. Fiat money does not do that - nothing like that.

You have no idea if crypto will exist in 10 years. Fiat has lived for generations and has taxing and printing behind it. Crypto has 5-10 years of greater fool theory behind it. An investment with no cash flow or utility or history is not really an investment...just a gamble.

I'll agree that there are a few classes of crypto owners. I'm just talking about individuals here.

Won't even start down the rabbit hole of 'all economic statistics are meaningless and we've been in an inflationary depressionary tailspin since we went off the gold standard but we don't know it'

la gente esta muy loca wrote:

agip wrote:

for 99.99% of crypto owners there is no cash flow.

it can't be a store of value if it loses half its value every year. Fiat money does not do that - nothing like that.

You have no idea if crypto will exist in 10 years. Fiat has lived for generations and has taxing and printing behind it. Crypto has 5-10 years of greater fool theory behind it. An investment with no cash flow or utility or history is not really an investment...just a gamble.

I'll agree that there are a few classes of crypto owners. I'm just talking about individuals here.

Won't even start down the rabbit hole of 'all economic statistics are meaningless and we've been in an inflationary depressionary tailspin since we went off the gold standard but we don't know it'

Agip; your today's twofer.

H/T @EconomPic

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FEZ_xuHUcAMZumJ?format=png&name=smallhttps://fullstackeconomics.com/no-the-real-inflation-rate-isnt-14-percent/

Maser@ti wrote:

These types of discussions bother me.

In point of fact, I can name many articles of manufacture, that remain exactly the same today, that cost six times as much as in 1980–things like a Rolex Submariner, Chanel Slingbacks, a pack of smokes, a bottle of Coke, etc.

But it is a silly exercise. To be objective you must use exactly identical newly-produced products and services. There are many to be found, it’s easy. I’m not talking about current look-alikes, like Doc Martens.

No I am not arguing that his measures are perfect—I merely point out an alternative. Notice that the author assumes that it is appropriate to use the govt’s numbers as a baseline for comparison, rather than attempting to calculate an actual rate of inflation , or examining the government’s methodology, its implications, and its deficiencies.

It is just another shallow POS clickbait article, with no serious research or analysis. As is often the case, the “truth” might lie somewhere in-between—i.e. higher than the government figures suggest.