agip wrote:
Bipolar Bob wrote:
Question for Igy-- what kind of event, etc do you think would cause the asset bubble to pop?
Certainly a lot of folks are overleveraged, because "stocks only go up". Lots of retail investor amateurs out there thinking their Warren f*cking Buffet because anything they've put their money into has gone bonkers. However- the federal reserve seems committed to not letting the stock market bubble pop, since they believe that would cause widespread economic devastation, a la 2008. I look at it like this: the bubble keeps getting bigger and bigger, and the federal reserve keeps putting pillows underneath the bubble to prevent it from dropping anymore than 15-20%.
I know far less about investing than several of the folks on here, especially agip, Racket, Mas, etc. But that's my $0.02, for what it's worth.
always hard to predict this sort of thing.
an obvious one would be a giant huge success like Nvidia or Tesla blowing up in a major way, stock down 40% in two weeks. That would cause a gigaton of selling of other names up huge this year. It's been a massive year for asset managers, so they really really don't want to give up a lot of performance in the last 4 weeks of the year.
An evergrande-style debt blowup would be a problem too.
An emergency rate rise by the Fed might trigger selling.
Political instability/terrorism is the hard one...doesn't usually affect business but it could given the tensions in europe and asia right now.
good ones, but how about adding one to the list - major flaw gets exposed in the battle against the pandemic. Like a new variant that totally slows or reverses hopes of opening back up. Lots of the rebound is predicated on re-opening, and making steady progress therein.