Down goes the Dow

IMO it's because there's a lot of money around, and the places to put it are limited.

Stocks have worked. RE has worked but it will cost you on maintenance. Bonds are divisive. Corporate paper is lame but safe. Forex has been choppy, even though leverage is cheap. Etc.

Really, the amounts I'm seeing people dedicate to crypto are disposable amounts, myself included. The total capitalization of something like btc should be reasonably related to the transaction volume, but it's at the moment impossible to separate the users from the speculators (I consider hodling/wealth preservation a "use").

The issue is not "the price of bitcoin", it is fiat inflation--i.e. the price of bitcoin as expressed in, say, USD. That's one interesting thing about bitcoin, a bitcoin remains the same regardless of price--or at least it will, after all have been brought into existence. One might expect an organic price growth commensurate with economic growth, but who knows what the baseline should be, upon which that growth operates.

If you look at, of all things, gold, it has been a good inflation hedge since Nixon.

There are those saying that it has been supplanted by crypto in its inflation hedge role, but that call is vastly premature. Crypto has zero history compared to gold. Look at just the past two years, I think it went up from around 1100 to around 1850 now, that's excellent. I'm talking fizz.

Maybe it doesn't so much react to inflation, as it does anticipate inflation. Those in the know buy early, as is often the case.

Iggy, how’s Gold doing as an inflation hedge?

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

https://twitter.com/EnronChairman/status/1458954615060320257

No!

This is how to envision the future in the markets, stocks only go up, and time to get hip, all you squares out there, daddy-o:

More likely at the coming market bottom:

https://youtu.be/GgD9FyE60hs

Swaglord the realest 123 wrote:

Iggy, how’s Gold doing as an inflation hedge?

Dude, you need to join this club:

Earnings Scorecard: For Q3 2021 (with 92% of S&P 500 companies reporting actual results), 81% of S&P 500 companies have reported a positive EPS surprise and 75% of S&P 500 companies have reported a positive revenue surprise.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Swaglord the realest 123 wrote:

Iggy, how’s Gold doing as an inflation hedge?

Dude, you need to join this club:

https://twitter.com/EnronChairman/status/1459277256006721539

Nice!

I want to be their bitcoin baby.

Any Enbridge holders here?

Stock has declined by over 6% in a few days.

Do you think Biden will shut down line 5?

Enbridge wrote:

Any Enbridge holders here?

Stock has declined by over 6% in a few days.

Do you think Biden will shut down line 5?

I got oil stocks and banks that backed them out of my portfolio about a year ago. I think i got natural gas companies out for the same reasons- detrimental environment impacts being the reason.

Here's the bull case.

remarkable, historic 4% growth

full employment

fading inflation.

A forward PE of 20 isn't so bad if this comes true. It's in my calendar to check back on, come 12/31/22.

https://twitter.com/JimPethokoukis/status/1459932343062433792?s=20

Forward looking markets :-)

https://twitter.com/EnronChairman/status/1449124094755184645

M@serati wrote:

There are many (most) things in life that should not be measured under a financial paradigm.

Re: Musk. While there might be a TSLA dip—and I will buy it if there is—he probably won’t sell, and if he does it will be in a measured way, and if he does there will be buyers and the price will rise with vol, at least for a bit.

It is a total gamble. Everyone knew this was coming, which was why I sold. Don’t need the uncertainty.

Reminder that any kind of polling, whether it be medical, political, economic or otherwise, is broken right now.

it's team red vs team blue and that's all people are voting on.

Republicans think now, with 4.8% employment, rising wages, record stock markets, record retail sales, record home prices, low interest rates etc....is worse than in the depths of the great financial crisis.

Insanity. This country is doomed.

https://twitter.com/TheStalwart/status/1460284204923691019?s=20

Republicans (the Trumpers, not the few reasonable ones left) are off the deep end insane. They were riled into a fury by Trump using his dog whistle. Yes the far left and the Woke people are idiots, but that's about 15% of the electorate at most. Trump used the race and all that stuff to get these people into a frenzy.

Biden is pragmatic and fairly centrist, economy is doing well besides inflation (1 year transitory). And yet these people think the sky is falling, etc.

Crazy stuff.

Question for Igy-- what kind of event, etc do you think would cause the asset bubble to pop?

Certainly a lot of folks are overleveraged, because "stocks only go up". Lots of retail investor amateurs out there thinking their Warren f*cking Buffet because anything they've put their money into has gone bonkers. However- the federal reserve seems committed to not letting the stock market bubble pop, since they believe that would cause widespread economic devastation, a la 2008. I look at it like this: the bubble keeps getting bigger and bigger, and the federal reserve keeps putting pillows underneath the bubble to prevent it from dropping anymore than 15-20%.

I know far less about investing than several of the folks on here, especially agip, Racket, Mas, etc. But that's my $0.02, for what it's worth.

Bipolar Bob wrote:

Question for Igy-- what kind of event, etc do you think would cause the asset bubble to pop?

Certainly a lot of folks are overleveraged, because "stocks only go up". Lots of retail investor amateurs out there thinking their Warren f*cking Buffet because anything they've put their money into has gone bonkers. However- the federal reserve seems committed to not letting the stock market bubble pop, since they believe that would cause widespread economic devastation, a la 2008. I look at it like this: the bubble keeps getting bigger and bigger, and the federal reserve keeps putting pillows underneath the bubble to prevent it from dropping anymore than 15-20%.

I know far less about investing than several of the folks on here, especially agip, Racket, Mas, etc. But that's my $0.02, for what it's worth.

always hard to predict this sort of thing.

an obvious one would be a giant huge success like Nvidia or Tesla blowing up in a major way, stock down 40% in two weeks. That would cause a gigaton of selling of other names up huge this year. It's been a massive year for asset managers, so they really really don't want to give up a lot of performance in the last 4 weeks of the year.

An evergrande-style debt blowup would be a problem too.

An emergency rate rise by the Fed might trigger selling.

Political instability/terrorism is the hard one...doesn't usually affect business but it could given the tensions in europe and asia right now.