Down goes the Dow

There are many (most) things in life that should not be measured under a financial paradigm.

Re: Musk. While there might be a TSLA dip—and I will buy it if there is—he probably won’t sell, and if he does it will be in a measured way, and if he does there will be buyers and the price will rise with vol, at least for a bit.

It is a total gamble. Everyone knew this was coming, which was why I sold. Don’t need the uncertainty.

Gruntz wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

How’s the ten year old Honda Accord holding up?

It’s a Toyota Camry actually and it still runs like a dream. Paid cash for it. A much better investment than borrowing money to buy a status car. No honest financial advisor that I know would have recommended doing that.

Sunday morning humor I see. Even funnier now that my car is paid for, and I could sell it for the purchase price. But then again you get to brag about your frugality on social media.

Iggy your investment depended on the Fed printing money to merely keep its value. The true value of it decreased. When this charade unravels, your car will revert back to its true value.

Swaglord the realest 123 wrote:

Iggy your investment depended on the Fed printing money to merely keep its value. The true value of it decreased. When this charade unravels, your car will revert back to its true value.

Sure, just like the stock market.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Amazing what $4.3 Trillion can do in just 20 months.

It was $4.8 Trillion and another authorized $1.1 Trillion unused. Yes, it was amazing, and considering the circumstances appropriate.

While I'm at it, in a previous response re: MSFT, it seemed you implied the stock market contributed to a company's assets. "Why even XOM's assets are high."If true, than your assumption is erroneous.

Also, you need to learn the difference between Reserve balances of depository institutions and Federal Reserve Notes ( issuance of which actually removes Reserves ).

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Gruntz wrote:

It’s a Toyota Camry actually and it still runs like a dream. Paid cash for it. A much better investment than borrowing money to buy a status car. No honest financial advisor that I know would have recommended doing that.

Sunday morning humor I see. Even funnier now that my car is paid for, and I could sell it for the purchase price. But then again you get to brag about your frugality on social media.

There’s nothing funny about what I wrote. And there’s no way you could sell your car for what it cost you. As for my bragging, I’m simply countering your narcissism.

la gente esta muy loca wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Amazing what $4.3 Trillion can do in just 20 months.

It was $4.8 Trillion and another authorized $1.1 Trillion unused. Yes, it was amazing, and considering the circumstances appropriate.

While I'm at it, in a previous response re: MSFT, it seemed you implied the stock market contributed to a company's assets. "Why even XOM's assets are high."If true, than your assumption is erroneous.

Also, you need to learn the difference between Reserve balances of depository institutions and Federal Reserve Notes ( issuance of which actually removes Reserves ).

Gente,

Oh, I know the difference between the two. More to my point, Fed operations of IOR, QE, Operation Twist, and SPIVs (created to buy mortgage bonds or high yield or corporate bond ETFs) stray from the stated mandate of stable prices and full employment. Instead it creates a Frankenstein economy of manufactured pull forward demand and bubble asset prices. Years ago Bernanke admitted some of these activities and similar machinations were designed to raise asset prices in order encourage housing purchases and consumer spending. The end result of this nonsense is it requires increasingly complex and extreme measures to keep the phony facade of stability going. It really is just a confidence game, that really has delivered nothing concrete or lasting in my view.

I agree that MSFT is a good company, which is different from it being a good investment. Obviously MSFT is a far better investment than travel and leisure stocks that were artificially propped up by direct Government bailouts, or Fed activities that supported their junk bonds. The negative side of these extremes were apparent this week in the back up in Z, MRNA, or Peloton. All stocks that investors perceived as benefiting from the Covid response. Meanwhile the speculative game goes on with new meme names of CAR and BBBY, which rose to insanity levels. The last week in the was far from normal, and portends poor outcomes for the future.

The story of whether I Fed policies were appropriate or in the long term best interest of the economy or the majority of American people has yet to be written. Clearly on multiple fronts Fed and Government excess has unleashed a bing of speculation. No doubt there will be investors that will succeed in navigating the current extremes. It does seem unlikely, and runs counter to the history of markets, that investors as a class will prosper over the coming decade.

In regards to XOM, while I wish to avoid tit-for- tat exchanges, I believe in previous post you MAY have noted the decline of their balance sheet with the drop in oil prices. Perhaps MY memory fails me. Any way, my larger intention was noting the possibility of asset mark up for XOM , while pointing out MSFT assets could be subject to a markdown as previously with the acquisition of Nokia cell phone business. The liabilities on the balance sheets of both companies will either have to be paid with cash flow or refinanced.

Respectfully,

Igy

Gruntz wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Sunday morning humor I see. Even funnier now that my car is paid for, and I could sell it for the purchase price. But then again you get to brag about your frugality on social media.

There’s nothing funny about what I wrote. And there’s no way you could sell your car for what it cost you. As for my bragging, I’m simply countering your narcissism.

I do agree your narcissism is so much more woke than mine. It is clear from your posts your are an outstanding example of humanity, of course somewhat measured against your obsession. I, on the other hand, made the fateful decision to work in an interesting job until age 70. While you made the inspiring decision to retire early from a boring job you hated, possibly now secure with with your government pension, to enjoy a minimalist life style. I say minimalist life style, with the exception of international travel, sushi eating, and daily Starbucks lattes. Now free to relive those experiences on social media. By the way, I just have to ask, do you buy carbon offsets for your air travel?

It is a cross to bear, but I have to live in my house and drive my car. Spending my time watching TCM, Hallmark movies, while my wife cooks (and occasional LRC posting). No woke carbon offsets for me. That is not for members of the leisure class like myself. We would rather look down on the Troll. Gruntz (just one of multiple handles) a pilar of respectability, a man with a big, but somewhat rotten heart.

😷 Covering my smile here.

😂

I don’t know if I should be flattered or creeped out that Igy fantasizes about me.

Just wow with Crypto. Up up and away.

I think this will continue for a bit, the narratives are all coming together.

I don't want to push my luck too far. Most people are waiting for at least BTC 100k.

I think I'll cut at BTC 85k.

Swaglord_the_realest_!69 wrote:

Just wow with Crypto. Up up and away.

I think this will continue for a bit, the narratives are all coming together.

I don't want to push my luck too far. Most people are waiting for at least BTC 100k.

I think I'll cut at BTC 85k.

As the saying goes, knowing when to buy is easy. Knowing when to sell is hard,

I don't have diddly so I'm just holding, which probably means, I'll hold until it's just about worthless.

Really, the only thing that makes sense in my case is to hope it drops and buy some more so that it's actually worth trading.

Whatever.

Good for you.

Swaglord_the_realest_!69 wrote:

Just wow with Crypto. Up up and away.

I think this will continue for a bit, the narratives are all coming together.

I don't want to push my luck too far. Most people are waiting for at least BTC 100k.

I think I'll cut at BTC 85k.

My plan was to hold until 2030. Or 2036 when my son goes to college.

It's easier to get rich with crypto than with stocks. Buy and hold BTC and ETH. There is BTC and ETH and everything else. They are the APPL and MSFT of crypto.

investing noob wrote:

It's easier to get rich with crypto than with stocks. Buy and hold BTC and ETH. There is BTC and ETH and everything else. They are the APPL and MSFT of crypto.

idk about all that, although I am in BTC, for real. If patterns hold, there will likely be another leg up this year, as it looks to have stabilized between 60-66k.

Although ETH is also a crypto, it is very different from BTC, and will have different future challenges and opportunities. The whole defi space is too new for many to understand. I have a defi portfolio now, of which BTC is just a part. BTC/ETH are like MSFT's DOS and WIndows/Server--they are bases upon which to build--but there are others like Unix analogs, which will have particular applications, and Ubuntu analogs in the future. First mover is a big deal. Some things will come and go, like Next. There are many similarities between the two industry sectors, right down to the building of the required hardware, asics, etc.

It is the ground floor. Choose wisely. Do research. It is difficult because serious standardization and regulation have not yet set in, so the field can be haphazard. Some guys are setting up defi funds, idk if they have yet made it to market, I don't think so, although I could be wrong.

re: I-bonds. Of course there is complexity in our situation, because as we are considering expatriating, we would become foreign beneficiaries and there would be paperwork, on both ends. The fun never ends.

Stocks and crypto both at all time highs. Congrats to the person who bought RIOT. Crypto stocks and green energy stocks are flying. TTD, RBLX up 30% today. This feels like last year when you could throw a dart at a wall and double your money in a week.

investing noob wrote:

Stocks and crypto both at all time highs. Congrats to the person who bought RIOT. Crypto stocks and green energy stocks are flying. TTD, RBLX up 30% today. This feels like last year when you could throw a dart at a wall and double your money in a week.

Crypto and green energy stocks booming,

I guess that's pretty much a zero sum-game if there ever was one,

(hint: one saves what the other takes away).

Vastly oversimplified. I assume you are reducing the discussion to physical energy, in which case I would invite you to present an exhaustive analysis of the unit energy cost of money as a wealth repository. Remember that the USD has lost something like 98% of its value, while Bitcoin’s unit value has skyrocketed—a trend which will continue.

The fact that bitcoin’s unit cost seems easy to calculate is a benefit of greater transparency. What is the unit cost of the USD system? Nobody knows, it is totally opaque. I mean the COMPREHENSIVE unit cost, including EVERYTHING that system involves.

I would put btc up against it any day, even at an old valuation like 20k. Any day. Not one life that I know of has been sacrificed in service of the bitcoin system, for starters.

Have you guys clued in yet? I gave you ample notice. Blockchain is for real, and defi has a future. I am buying more btc this week, it has broken out of the 60-66 box.

Yields down to 1.43% on the 10 year. Plunging.

Bond market is saying inflation is over and so is strong growth.