Down goes the Dow

Has anybody else ever woken up in the middle of the night and thought:

“What if Iggy’s right?”

Just happened to me now. Scary stuff man.

Swaglord the realest 123 wrote:

Has anybody else ever woken up in the middle of the night and thought:

“What if Iggy’s right?”

Just happened to me now. Scary stuff man.

There's always a chance, so position yourself accordingly. and have a plan in case it does happen.

I would think about that every time you face an investment decision. And periodically review your holdings with the understanding that rebalancing might become necessary. as your ratios change, or for any of a myriad of other reasons, for that matter.

My anchor assumes there’s gonna be plentiful software engineering jobs and remote ones at that for the foreseeable future. And if there’s not, there’s gonna be bigger problems.

If I keep 12 months living expensive in liquid USD…. That’s plenty of time to right the ship if a fairly unlikely event combination happens (lose job and crypto goes to zero and stocks go way down).

So now that I got to “why keep more than 12 months living? “

Now we go to well where should we put the money? Prob crypto and stocks.

Swaglord the realest 123 wrote:

My anchor assumes there’s gonna be plentiful software engineering jobs and remote ones at that for the foreseeable future. And if there’s not, there’s gonna be bigger problems.

If I keep 12 months living expensive in liquid USD…. That’s plenty of time to right the ship if a fairly unlikely event combination happens (lose job and crypto goes to zero and stocks go way down).

So now that I got to “why keep more than 12 months living? “

Now we go to well where should we put the money? Prob crypto and stocks.

Hey, if you're open to my opinion, seems to me the one to focus on in your case is the last one - the investments, if you can call them that.

Crypto ain't no retirement plan. And rather than individual stocks at this level, I would go with index kind of funds or the equivalents - like a growth fund in your case.

In no case, if you have to dabble in stocks, I would reserve that to a max. of 5% to 10% of your portfolio, if you must, until you reach a threshold of about $100 K min.

Use that as a baseline, and if you have to, tweak it as you will, but I would always consider that you are doing so, and in so doing, you are opening yourself up to slightly more downside risk.

Also, plan ahead for major purchases (car, house) and don't tie up the money you will need for that in stocks because if the stocks are in a down mode, you would conceivably selling at a loss in order to access those funds.

In a nutshell, have some play money to speculate, but think long term with a safe base ensuring you are where you need to be down the road.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Speaking of write downs, remember the Nokia cell phone business just six years ago. Not ancient history. How much did they pay for LinkedIn?

https://www.theverge.com/2015/7/8/8910999/microsoft-job-cuts-2015-nokia-write-off

That was obviously a good business decision. No wonder MSFT has been doing so well. Too bad you didn’t recognize it.

seattle prattle wrote:

Swaglord the realest 123 wrote:

Has anybody else ever woken up in the middle of the night and thought:

“What if Iggy’s right?”

Just happened to me now. Scary stuff man.

There's always a chance, so position yourself accordingly. and have a plan in case it does happen.

I would think about that every time you face an investment decision. And periodically review your holdings with the understanding that rebalancing might become necessary. as your ratios change, or for any of a myriad of other reasons, for that matter.

There’s a chance that nothing matters. That is hardly something that can anchor society, let alone free markets.

Boy, is Powell ever a pencil-necked douche. Now the discussion pivots to "full employment", and employment pivots to "labor force participation rate".

And they take their foot off the gas in the form of UI and especially PPP, then claim the economy is slowing down.

What a bunch of absolute douches.

Obviously the game is how to profit off what you know, but what I know is now so unsavory that it is getting in the emotional way of my otherwise rational judgment.

Maseratl wrote:Boy, is Powell ever a pencil-necked douche.

Aren't you he?

Bought some AT&T stock today as a long term hold. 8.2% annual dividend, and it's near a 52 week low. I'd say there's a 10-30% upside in the stock price if I hold it for a bit.

Racket and anyone else here- do any of you own or know much about Blockchain stocks, such as RIOT?

Bipolar Bob wrote:

Bought some AT&T stock today as a long term hold. 8.2% annual dividend, and it's near a 52 week low. I'd say there's a 10-30% upside in the stock price if I hold it for a bit.

Racket and anyone else here- do any of you own or know much about Blockchain stocks, such as RIOT?

Is this a joke?

In the slight chance it is not, no on the crypto play.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

seattle prattle wrote:

There's always a chance, so position yourself accordingly. and have a plan in case it does happen.

I would think about that every time you face an investment decision. And periodically review your holdings with the understanding that rebalancing might become necessary. as your ratios change, or for any of a myriad of other reasons, for that matter.

There’s a chance that nothing matters. That is hardly something that can anchor society, let alone free markets.

Or maybe the things that you thought mattered so much are just some of the many factors being brought to play,

Another strong day for the market.

Unbelievable.

VS-SJW-IR-TS idiot wrote:

Maseratl wrote:Boy, is Powell ever a pencil-necked douche.

Aren't you he?

How wonderfully grammatical of you.

While the charade of expectations management is disappointing, it's todamoon for the rest of the year, right?

re:at&t...I would look into its business operations before putting down any real money. Same for any stock bought for its dividend.

otoh if you are just hoping it jumps 10-30%, then go for it. Everything will jump that much in the next period, you can't go wrong!

lol buy some cheap diversified fund instead, if you are looking for that short(ish)-term gain. Better yet, SPXL.

Seriously though, I know someone who has what he considers to be a US dividend portfolio, and as part of it he holds T.

***************

So the fed will continue to let inflation run until the middle of next year. Great. Buy gold, right? No, wait...commodity futures! No, wait...utilities! Our electric utility here has just applied to the PUC for a 21% increase between 2022-2024: 12.2% in 2022, 4.8% in 2023, and 4.2% in 2024.

Subject to revision, of course. The dividend guy also holds some oil. And tobacco. He gets just under 10%.

seattle prattle wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

There’s a chance that nothing matters. That is hardly something that can anchor society, let alone free markets.

Or maybe the things that you thought mattered so much are just some of the many factors being brought to play,

Another strong day for the market.

Unbelievable.

Well adding $4.5 Trillion to the Fed balance sheet sure makes it appear so. Get this straight though, at the current announced pace of tapering the Fed balance sheet will grow from $8.6 Trillion to $9 Trillion by summer.

What Seattle wrote here is spot on. It is almost identical to my investing philosophy.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

seattle prattle wrote:

Or maybe the things that you thought mattered so much are just some of the many factors being brought to play,

Another strong day for the market.

Unbelievable.

Well adding $4.5 Trillion to the Fed balance sheet sure makes it appear so. Get this straight though, at the current announced pace of tapering the Fed balance sheet will grow from $8.6 Trillion to $9 Trillion by summer.

So maybe the markets are forwarding looking, just not that far forward to the time when this becomes a real problem.

Do people really think that the Fed has an inflation on/off switch?

The assigning of all power to the Fed is one of the wackiest economic theories I know. I suppose it all goes back to the one time the Fed did determine something - when it raised interest rates sharply to end inflaiton and intentionally caused a recession. Other than that exception...the Fed is just there to feed liquidity when the economy needs it. It doesn't have the powers Maser and Igy think it has.

anyway, inflation is already slowing and should be back to normal by mid 2022 - that's why the Fed picked that time frame to raise rates.

anyway, all time highs for the US today - all major indices.

huah.

seattle prattle wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Well adding $4.5 Trillion to the Fed balance sheet sure makes it appear so. Get this straight though, at the current announced pace of tapering the Fed balance sheet will grow from $8.6 Trillion to $9 Trillion by summer.

So maybe the markets are forwarding looking, just not that far forward to the time when this becomes a real problem.

That makes no sense when the Fed cannot reduce their balance sheet. It is already a problem. Furthermore, all the crazy market moves, crypto, SPACs, excessive valuations, zero price discovery in bonds, and the kicker—inflation. But OK, the “forward looking market” believes it is not a problem. I’ll buy that.

agip wrote:

anyway, all time highs for the US today - all major indices.

huah.

Even Hussman Strategic Growth fund had fantastic run of ..... ooops only one day. It is back to negative with being down 0.49% today. Alas.