Down goes the Dow

Hey Idiot, how goes?

Yes fortunately/unfortunately my prognostications have been right on. I missed out on some U gains--some guys wanted me to get in earlier, almost a year ago, but I didn't. Eventually I did, but not in a substantial way. I still have a position, and might increase it in the coming years. I plan to hold it.

I am completely out of the broader market at the moment. I went back into a bit of tech, made a few %, and got out, only because it had dropped a few % the days earlier for what I thought was no good reason. I would not be, and am not in, tech, at the moment...or I would exit soon. Buy the rumor, sell the fact.

Unless you want to consider TSLA as tech. I have a good position, which I purchased as much as a BTC proxy as for any other reason. I fretted when Musk dissed BTC, but held because TSLA has a good base, good penetration, and a good story. I said on here that it would get to $1k, and it's almost there.

BTC, what can I say. It is not too late to get in. It could easily rise 10x from here. Even though I am a BTC proponent, all I would really need to know is that all the people I know who matter, are in BTC in their personal capacity. Not hugely, but not trivially either.

I thought about getting into oil, and maybe should have--would have been better-diversified, but returned less.

My US RE is stagnant, but my overseas RE is great--although I'm going to get essentially fined via tax for having secondary residences. I will carry it, but that sucks.

Have looked into changing tax domicile from the US, but it's complicated. Probably will not avail myself of our EU passports. I thought about the Caymans, but it would be weird because I wouldn't want to live there. I thought about Liechtenstein and actually have a shot, but it is landlocked--doubly so. It's nice there, but cloistered.

The world has become a small place for me. NZ is out, after their covid insanity. Same with Canada, although I could do well on taxes--also culturally it doesn't do it for me except for a few places, where the climate and growing conditions are unacceptable.

My wife is of course a PITA, she has criteria that I couldn't satisfy if I had a billion dollars. I scored us a piece of RE close to her heart, and even that was a bad move--now she wants to live there! I can't win. I can beat the markets, but I can't seem to beat circumstance.

TSLA gapped up and is trading above 1k right now.

Sally Vixxxxxxxxens wrote:

When is the market correction coming? I have been hearing this for years. But it never comes. Instead the market keeps going higher and higher.

Yes, even theTrump social media SPAC is on fire.

welcome back.

Just bought back into a small position in Tesla this morning. Like always, I have this overarching feeling that I've picked the worst time to buy it, but that seems to be the nature of that stock.

It jut doesn't look like it will ever pull back sufficiently to miss the ride up while one waits for it.

Tech? Well tech. is king. Seems like no matter what happens, the spin is 'well, this should benefit tech, ...'

Maserati,

Glad you are well. Missed you. Your belief that powered interest control everything, will keep markets up, has been spot on so far. Whether that is good is another issue. Where do we go from here? A very bad, historically bad global economy, and markets of course. All get skewered.

Igy

Fast Money traders in action:

March 2021: Two investment firms have agreed to pay a combined $4.2 billion to buy Hertz and take it out of bankruptcy

October 2021: Hertz buys 100,000 $TSLA cars for $4.2 billion

TSLA crosses $1 Trillion market cap. 😹

Maseratl wrote:

I have been right about everything,

Hey Maser great to hear from you. What a year.

And yes, I'm willing to wink and say that you have been bullish all along and advocated buy and hold as a brilliant way to navigate the investment landscape. You've been very consistent on the benefits of buy and hold. Right?

Anyway, perfect health too!!!!!

Cheers.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Sally Vixxxxxxxxens wrote:

When is the market correction coming? I have been hearing this for years. But it never comes. Instead the market keeps going higher and higher.

Yes, even theTrump social media SPAC is on fire.

heh depends on when you buy and sold.

down 30% from its high...earlier today

Down 50% from its all time high on...Friday.

just people gambling in the casino.

agip wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Yes, even theTrump social media SPAC is on fire.

heh depends on when you buy and sold.

down 30% from its high...earlier today

Down 50% from its all time high on...Friday.

just people gambling in the casino.

Knowing Sally, He probably bought it. Hopefully not at the high.

Wow, this is making me nostalgic! Great to see you guys are all still going strong.

The only thing that will stop this ride is widespread class warfare--and that won't happen in countries where the basic needs are met, and where the trivial distractions abound...nor will it happen in places where wealth disparity has always been absolutely huge, and rulers especially brutal: belt and road areas, parts of Asia, Africa, Mideast.

Sure we have seen inflations like this, more or less--but not only does this involve a global reserve currency, it also involves pretty much every other significant regional currency, and the systems of control and influence have never before in history had the penetration and psychological effectiveness that they have today.

Look at prices everywhere, finally even the gov is unable to hide it. It is way worse than reported, it has been for decades, and yet prices are still nowhere near the same rate of inflation as money supply because the velocity has been suppressed. The big dogs use fancy vehicles that they circulate among themselves, sovereigns, and CB's...but the everyman is catching up, as stupidities become ever more readily available to him. "Regulation" means a channeling of the profits, and cartelism. It used to piss me off 30 years ago that the Chinese would have a ton of money for doing essentially nothing, but the world has caught on to all that. Even though the economy is in the tank--and it is, if you take it historically longitudinally--these prices will continue to obtain, because of command and control.

Igy, I ask again the same question I have asked for a decade now, and which nobody has been able to answer: precisely HOW would any crash/reset play out? What would precipitate it, and how would it propagate and progress? I myself came up with a few answers a few years ago, pandemic being one of them--and then we had a manufactured one! And made it through, with an even greater wealth disparity than before! And new market highs everywhere! It was one of my possible end-scenarios, and had it been a real pandemic, it might well have been--but it was a test. Although it didn't seem like it, people who matter were prepared, and are now sitting pretty, even though shelves are emptying, gasoline is prohibitive, etc. They just don't care, they don't see the value in the old saying that a rising tide floats all boats.

The point is that in order to be floated by the tide, you have to have a boat. No boat, and you will just get flooded out, and everything you have will be destroyed. That is what is happening now. You are either in, or you are out. All of us on this board are, to a greater or lesser extent, "in". We have investments, homes, financial vehicles, etc. I would hazard a guess that the everyman who is out is now worse off than before the event--paying higher taxes, subject to price inflation, COLA not keeping pace, receiving worse to no service that they pay for from government and related regulated spheres of activity like health care, banking, education, etc. As long as the welfare payments flow (that the middle are paying for), there will be no organized class warfare. It is being carefully managed at a low simmer, just enough to divert public funds into private pockets for, of course, the best of causes. There are pallets of money going everywhere, not just from Obama to the mideast, but quite literally everywhere. Even places like Turkey. The average guy is paying for it all.

I forget what my other scenarios were, but I think they were class warfare, and electrical grid failure. The pandemic scenario may have been the easiest to test. I am not saying that it was engineered or orchestrated, only that once it became a thing, it was considered to have been propitious, and has been managed with zeal.

Everything is like that now. There is no market. Everything is managed by a few, for personal gain--and to the extent that we participate, we are just along for the ride. The trick, in our position, is to anticipate what will happen, and get on the right train. I got good/lucky this year, but one would have done better just being fully "diversified", than if one didn't participate at all.

I do think that a REAL pandemic, electrical grid failure, or class warfare, WILL bring it all crashing down. Of course it would, because the unity required to maintain the narratives couldn't continue to exist as communication and distribution channels broke down. All of what we are seeing requires coordination. BTW we have also seen the beginnings of electrical grid events, who could forget Texas last year. And that is the tip of the iceberg. It will be the next thing that will be manipulated, first because it is easy to do so, second because like with covid it is really easy to blame it on someone else (eg. Russians), third because it can have universal penetration and effect in most of the world. Class warfare, of course, is being carefully managed, as always there is an uneasy state. There has been personal flight from our urban area in Mpls, myself included, but we all seem to still own the properties, and visit them, use them for a while. I think fiddling with the grid will be preferable to class warfare, because it is more predictable, less dangerous, more responsive, less expensive, more opaque, etc.

So anyway, I still haven't heard anybody answer the question well. I think things will continue to be managed, and that real chaos and reset will come only if there is a big organic grid event, pandemic, or class unrest. Those things are not easily predictable, although there could be some warning. Climate change was not a great vehicle, because while it may have some merit, the receiving public is easily confused by mixed messages, spoofing, etc. It is still the fulcrum about which much will pivot, because the powers-that-be are invested in the scheme...but meantime, oil and gas continue to climb, reactors get built and U rises, and China buys coal even from Australia via Vietnam, at "whatever cost".

Be really careful, this is a dangerous game we are caught up in. It's great until it isn't, then it is catastrophic. Really, expect the best, but prepare for the worst. I have, what, 30 years to live if all goes well, maybe 40 if I am an outlier, 50 if I am epic. Say 30. A lot can happen in that time, and I might get old at some point.

For now, I forget about the meme stuff, and look for things that have that underlying value, even if they have a huge meme quality at the same time. There's that value thing again--I always consider value to be 100% subjective, there is no value if there are no people. lol all the gold bugs declaring that gold has some "intrinsic" value--bollocks! A field full of food would have no value to us if there was nobody around. It is we who imbue things with value, and measurement and quantification of that value is becoming the province of an increasingly narrow group of actors, and is becoming increasingly more important than the identification of value itself. Of course markets narrow in that type of situation, but prices remain elevated. That is what we are seeing with consolidation--and no, Robinhooders are not really in the market, it is not becoming this big democracy as pitched. Control is ever more centralized, fewer people behind the wheel, while the bus is more packed with mere passengers.

Yes I know this is rambling, uncoordinated, vague, and incomplete. You guys know this is a running blog, right?

lmfao just in case you were wondering if this was really me :)

VS-SJW-IR-TS idiot wrote:

Maseratl wrote:...I have been right about everything...

There's our mas! :-D

Glad to know you're alive, I thought maybe the covid got you...

None of you will ever convince me that he isn't Jerome Powell. The evidence is too great

Maseratl wrote:

and then we had a manufactured one! And made it through, with an even greater wealth disparity than before! And new market highs everywhere! It was one of my possible end-scenarios, and had it been a real pandemic, it might well have been--but it was a test. Although it didn't seem like it, people who matter were prepared, and are now sitting pretty, even though shelves are emptying, gasoline is prohibitive, etc. They just don't care, they don't see the value in the old saying that a rising tide floats all boats.

Sorry Mas, but this is completely fallacious. It'd be like looking at the post war economic boom and concluding that WW2 must not have been a very big deal.

Prof. Racket wrote:

Maseratl wrote:

and then we had a manufactured one! And made it through, with an even greater wealth disparity than before! And new market highs everywhere! It was one of my possible end-scenarios, and had it been a real pandemic, it might well have been--but it was a test. Although it didn't seem like it, people who matter were prepared, and are now sitting pretty, even though shelves are emptying, gasoline is prohibitive, etc. They just don't care, they don't see the value in the old saying that a rising tide floats all boats.

Sorry Mas, but this is completely fallacious. It'd be like looking at the post war economic boom and concluding that WW2 must not have been a very big deal.

Maybe you misunderstand, because I was so rambling--a "real pandemic", in that 50% of the world's population dies, or something like that. Like the plague in Europe, or smallpox in South America.

And if you think covid has been a big deal, wait until you see what's coming. Like the market manifestation, this only goes in one direction until it crashes.

Maseratl wrote:

Hey Idiot, how goes?.

All good here. I’ve been reunited with my yearbooks so I may try harder to figure out who you are, since you have me at a disadvantage.

agip wrote:

Maseratl wrote:

I have been right about everything,

Hey Maser great to hear from you. What a year.

And yes, I'm willing to wink and say that you have been bullish all along and advocated buy and hold as a brilliant way to navigate the investment landscape. You've been very consistent on the benefits of buy and hold. Right?

Anyway, perfect health too!!!!!

Cheers.

No, it depends. I loosely advocate b&h if you are in broad-spectrum funds, or track the market. You will get some return, that which you are programmed to receive. Netted for real inflation, gain will be zero--but that's better than negative.

I advocate b&h for the few things that you identify as worthwhile. I used to be great at timing the market--that is, I would manage to avoid the big drawdowns--but tbh my stock-picking was not great, and so I used broader-spectrum vehicles more toward the end. But the "market" is no longer about timing, in the sense that the aggregate market will rise--it is about timing your particular investments to maximize return.

Unlike years past, I believe that if you pick something well now, that it WILL ultimately rise (barring a cataclysm), you just have to wait out the gyrations, shorts, news cycles, and profit-taking. Look at the TSLA and BTC I have, talk about a ride. At 20k, even at 50k, I knew BTC would rise, I just didn't know exactly when--and I have the luxury of being able to afford to ride it out. Same with TSLA, a bunch of which I sold back somewhere around $580 IIRC, also I sold some in the 700's I think, but then I bought back because it was a good time for me to book profits via the TSLA vehicle. I knew when it was 500 that it would rise to 1k, and here we are.

So what now? I still hold a bit of vaulted phyzz Au. Believe it or not, I am thinking that Au will now rise a bit through the coming year. Not much, but considering what it is, that may be valuable to someone to consider. If it weren't so cumbersome, I would get more--and I might get a little bit more, but not too much. I am not big on miners or futures, but if Au rises, miners rise, right?

I have to find an asset class that has been affected by everything disproportionately. Au had its big run-up before/as covid hit. It has stagnated since because it flowered early. I like the trading/currency group around Iran--Iran, Afghanistan, Kazakhstan, even India to some extent. But what will be the next big hit? I don't know yet. Sure there is something like a Trump spac, but for every thing like that, there is some Palihapitaya scam.

I am STILL thinking about just packing it in and building a dividend portfolio. I'm glad I didn't do that this year, as I thought I might. It was too volatile, and volatility makes for gains. My art and antiquities are now safe essentially forever--I gave a bunch of them to deeply-embedded family! I hope they are never sold off or disposed of, and the best way to ensure that is to let people who are younger than you, and who care, have them. Sure we kept some, but going forward I am glad I will never need to sell any, because that market has gone a bit squirrelly, IMO. It is too tied-in with government, culture, race, religion, power, etc. I was thinking about making a museum donation, but unfortunately I know too much about the direction museums are taking these days. Zero trust, better to be held in private hands for the pleasure of a select few, and some who are invited. I would no longer recommend to anyone, even to those who think they know, to "invest" in such things, at least not for the next few years. Prices are high because people have a lot of money, but that market too is becoming a thing of concentration. I am also saving it as a bargaining chip in case I get into some sort of tax/residency complexity. In many parts of the world, especially where I would now invest, it can be a get-out-of-jail-free card, good for a single use, but a valuable use. Also just to offset taxes owing. I hear that sometimes it's just easier to pay your way out. Money talks, and values in such situations are always, always, grossly inflated, but since everybody is in agreement, government included, that becomes the de facto market value.

So, if you are well-off and know how you want to/can live, I might recommend to b&h a dividend portfolio, that is diversified across industry sectors, nationalities, currencies, and trading blocs. This is likely what I will do, for the most part, as soon as I get too scared to continue living dangerously. Essentially, put myself out to pasture. I could live with that at this point, as running is just about the cheapest hobby there is.

But b&h the broader market right now? No. OK maybe the S&P for the next few weeks of earnings season.

Igy, I ask again the same question I have asked for a decade now, and which nobody has been able to answer: precisely HOW would any crash/reset play out?

Maserati,

Investors believe there is no penalty for reckless behavior. It is self reinforcing. There was no singular event in 1929, 1987, 2000, or 2007. After the fact historians pin some event or circumstance, but in the end a speculative collapse comes with the decline of enthusiasm, that becomes self reinforcing. I heard Robinhood trading volume had gone down, small caps peaked months ago, AMZN has been stuck in a range. Today TSLA carried the day, but what about KMB. Sustained inflation would be a problem that the Fed can only address by reducing liquidity or raising rates. I believe the Fed is afraid to upset markets, so will try to keep the game going by talking, while doing little to reduce stimulus. In a normal environment investors would view this as a mistake. No bad days.

Igy

Maseratl wrote:

And made it through, with an even greater wealth disparity than before! Although it didn't seem like it, people who matter were prepared, and are now sitting pretty, even though shelves are emptying, gasoline is prohibitive, etc.

)

no, we don't have greater wealth disparity than ever before (unless your definition is 10 billionaires vs 330 million people). Probably. inequality is not a single definition and is very hard to calculate but it's probably not true.

no, shelves are not emptying, and gas is a far smaller part of a weekly family budget than in the 70s. Gas is hardly prohibitive. Remember cars do almost double the mpg than in earlier 'cheaper' times.

maser look. I was being sarcastic with good reason.

you have advocated for every investment strategy in the book, and usually claimed after the fact that you were right, but I'm 95% sure that you have never been a solid faithful decades long buy and holder. I clearly remember you claiming to have a b/h portfolio which you then liquidate. Which is not b/h.

In the meantime, the US is up 16% per year for 10 years. Buying and holding.

So I call bs.

I like Nestle, I am pretty sure I will make a major buy soon.

Great to hear that you guys are all doing well physically! It would be hilarious to have a DGTD meet, if I really was loaded, I would consider sponsoring one. It sounds like the only event I could win might be the beer mile, but what the heck.

It is weird to have "pivoted" from using financial/market/company data to using monetary/political/social data. It is like switching from physics to metaphysics--not exactly astrophysics to astrology, but a hybrid where, like in the arts like lit, philosophy, semiotics, etc., you have to have some capital to understand the language being spoken, and a "feel" for how to make sense of the data you receive, and even to which data to pay attention. It is decidedly qualitative, which is unnerving. It requires self-confidence, which believe it or not I lack somewhat. If I didn't, I really would have a billion dollars.

It's a difficult shift, and it has yet to be proven if my own shift will have any enduring merit--but at least I am a bit adaptable, which may be my single positive personality trait. I hope never to become the crotchety old man, but time waits for no-one. My new way is far less rigorous, and doesn't even require any math or computing--but it is still not easy to gain competence. As math requires one to apply oneself, this new way requires experience and lateral thinking, two things that for me have been harder to obtain than were math and computing.

The thing with math and computing is that they can never take into account individual personality, and we are full-on in a contemporary cult of personality. Individuals matter, and often they're nuts.