Don't fight the trend.
Don't fight the trend.
FCX , primarily a copper company, is up around 29% since late Sept.
I'm thinking Dr Copper is forecasting an economic upturn right around the corner
but to be fair I don't know the reason for the price spike.
Imagine investing in Hussmann instead of Bitcoin.
Hussmann: get a solid -10% every year. So not only is your money being inflated away, but you’re also losing money as well. Plus paying a fee to lose money.
Bitcoin: preserve value. Own the coins on hardware wallet that is essentially unhackable. 21 million Bitcoin limit due to mathematics and code (natural laws). Still in the upswing of societal acceptance — being an early adopter gives you possibly 10x gains or more on your hard earned value.
Iggy I’ll show you how to get a hardware wallet and buy your first Bitcoin if you renounce ties to the scoundrel Hussmann in the public square.
No way man. If you don’t eat your crypto trade then nothing matters any more. Of course people believe in many things today that run counter to common sense. But I wish you the best regardless.
Earnings Scorecard: For Q3 2021 (with 8% of S&P 500 companies reporting actual results), 80% of S&P 500 companies have reported a positive EPS surprise and 83% of S&P 500 companies have reported a positive revenue surprise.
Speaking of Hussman, only the owner and founder of a fund company could ever be that colussal of a failure without being fired long ago,
Even that little blip of accountability he had earlier this year has disappeared. Year to date: +2%. Kind of abysmal when you consider that the Nasdaq, a freakin' passive index, is up 28% in the same period. And this is a a relatively good year for the loser!
Igy, if you were trolling us with this hose-job fund, it would be actually be very funny. But I fear that that is not the case.
Ok, 'now tell me about the bunnies, George.'
seattle prattle wrote:
Speaking of Hussman, only the owner and founder of a fund company could ever be that colussal of a failure without being fired long ago,
Even that little blip of accountability he had earlier this year has disappeared. Year to date: +2%. Kind of abysmal when you consider that the Nasdaq, a freakin' passive index, is up 28% in the same period. And this is a a relatively good year for the loser!
Igy, if you were trolling us with this hose-job fund, it would be actually be very funny. But I fear that that is not the case.
Ok, 'now tell me about the bunnies, George.'
Quite the opposite actually. I would expect any manager with a true value orientation to underperform the most extreme asset valuations in history. Agip has pointed out the same with GMO. Not too much unlike the Tech Bubble.
Did you notice the Russell closed down today?
Here’s your bunnies, Seattle:
I don't have the foggiest idea what the chart or the gauges it is using (Z.1 balance sheet?) mean, but don't worry about it. I'm not,
I can imagine what it's saying and I've heard the general concern long enough without it materializing in any sustained way in many many years.
Is this anything new or have the doomsdayers been saying this all along (meaning throughout this sustained bull market)?
It’s OK, now that my Porsche is paid off, next year it will be worth more than the principal, interest, down payment, new tires, and 5 years of annual service. No worries:
seattle prattle wrote:
Speaking of Hussman, only the owner and founder of a fund company could ever be that colussal of a failure without being fired long ago,
Even that little blip of accountability he had earlier this year has disappeared. Year to date: +2%. Kind of abysmal when you consider that the Nasdaq, a freakin' passive index, is up 28% in the same period. And this is a a relatively good year for the loser!
Igy, if you were trolling us with this hose-job fund, it would be actually be very funny. But I fear that that is not the case.
Ok, 'now tell me about the bunnies, George.'
I've said this before but it 'bears' repeating..,
there is a real need out there for bearish portfolios...that will hold their value or go up if the market tanks.
Hussman does that, and people trust that he won't throw in the towel and get bullish on them.
So he's not necessarily a failure even with that performance record....he's provided a hedging service for many people.
the Porsche - you enjoy it, so it's worth it, Nice that it has the added benefit of increasing in value, additionally, but that wasn't the point in all likelihood.
It's nice that you can afford to have things that bring so much enjoyment. That is very fortunate and I try to not overlook that in my life.
agip wrote:
seattle prattle wrote:
Speaking of Hussman, only the owner and founder of a fund company could ever be that colussal of a failure without being fired long ago,
Even that little blip of accountability he had earlier this year has disappeared. Year to date: +2%. Kind of abysmal when you consider that the Nasdaq, a freakin' passive index, is up 28% in the same period. And this is a a relatively good year for the loser!
Igy, if you were trolling us with this hose-job fund, it would be actually be very funny. But I fear that that is not the case.
Ok, 'now tell me about the bunnies, George.'
I've said this before but it 'bears' repeating..,
there is a real need out there for bearish portfolios...that will hold their value or go up if the market tanks.
Hussman does that, and people trust that he won't throw in the towel and get bullish on them.
So he's not necessarily a failure even with that performance record....he's provided a hedging service for many people.
Fair point.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
seattle prattle wrote:
Speaking of Hussman, only the owner and founder of a fund company could ever be that colussal of a failure without being fired long ago,
Even that little blip of accountability he had earlier this year has disappeared. Year to date: +2%. Kind of abysmal when you consider that the Nasdaq, a freakin' passive index, is up 28% in the same period. And this is a a relatively good year for the loser!
Igy, if you were trolling us with this hose-job fund, it would be actually be very funny. But I fear that that is not the case.
Ok, 'now tell me about the bunnies, George.'
Quite the opposite actually. I would expect any manager with a true value orientation to underperform the most extreme asset valuations in history. Agip has pointed out the same with GMO. Not too much unlike the Tech Bubble.
Did you notice the Russell closed down today?
This actually highlights the narrow mindedness of some investors. Specifically too many amateur investors focus on a single metric such as valuation. The picture is much more than a single metric. Recent history illustrates this in spades. I would argue this is one reason index funds outperform ones that are actively managed by myopic managers.
You would argue, along with everybody else.
Surprising!
:-)
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
You would argue, along with everybody else.
Surprising!
:-)
The "everyone else" is highly pertinent in this case.
A share is only worth what someone is willing to pay for it, so to refer pejoratively to the common consensus seems to suggest that there is an absolute value, which other's apparently aren't buying in to.
The longer a model proves to be unrealized, the less value it becomes as a predictor of future outcomes. Simply put, fortunes have been realized and doubled down upon, and yet the doomsday forecast has yet to occur.
At what point does one abandon their model in favor of another thesis?
[quote]Ghost of Igloi wrote:
It’s OK, now that my Porsche is paid off, next year it will be worth more than the principal, interest, down payment, new tires, and 5 years of annual service. No worries:
https://www.oftwominds.com/photos2021/margin-debt4-21a.png[/quote
Margin accounts include short sales.
Also, 2 other views.
Iggy what’s your time horizon for your investments?
Hussmann has been wrong for a decade or two. That’s an entire era of economics that he’s been off.
Clearly he doesn’t understand that in a highly advanced world economy, why would capital need to cost that much? Technology is deflationary to counteract what would be an inflationary monetary policy.
