I don't know who Chemical Reagent is, but man did he call it right. Chemical, how did you know? I assume because you closed out around 250 you didn't see it dropping further (down 340 now and falling).
I don't know who Chemical Reagent is, but man did he call it right. Chemical, how did you know? I assume because you closed out around 250 you didn't see it dropping further (down 340 now and falling).
Chemical Reagent wrote:
OK so I was off by a tiny bit, which to me is irrelevant as down at close or at the open is the same for me.
Down 266 now, and I've already closed out the positions I took yesterday when I called the fall.
Hopefully now you fools will BEGIN to understand. Not everyone is as stupid or ignorant or careless as most of you on this board. You didn't believe me on my longer time frames, so now I have gone to shorter, predicting in advance.
A big F U to many of you. Honestly, I don't even know why I care, but for some reason, I do. Validation from a bunch of idiots is not something I need. Maybe it has something to do with a mission.
Don't be idiots. Don't believe everything you are told. Don't be suckers don't be chumps. It's hard to keep your wits about you at all times, and knowing stuff takes a lot of work, but it IS possible.
And finally, YES, I will be golfing come noon.
well that trade was nothing short of perfect. bet market falls, market falls, remove bet, market rises.
After a trade like that you deserve more than one golf day.
It was only slightly more than half perfect. I bet a lot of money on it, and made a lot, but I didn't put enough on today's rise--in fact, i hardly put anything, but it was all blue-chip stuff I would have held for a month or two if I had needed to.
So, 52-53% maybe. I'll take it.
Chemical Reagent wrote:
Look at this thread under ultraviolet light, and you will see that it is more than that, just for 2015 alone.
On the year, after only Q1, I have made enough for myself for the entire year, AFTER TAX. I could stop now, and I might, unless some other slam dunks line up.
Here's another feeling, but not a specific prediction, yet: there will soon be a good short-term FOREX play, probably involving EUR. Don't know yet if USD or CHF will be better, but it will happen--I just don't know if it will be good enough to get into. Yet.
Glad you're doing well K5.
R2D3 wrote:
Chemical Reagent wrote:Look at this thread under ultraviolet light, and you will see that it is more than that, just for 2015 alone.
On the year, after only Q1, I have made enough for myself for the entire year, AFTER TAX. I could stop now, and I might, unless some other slam dunks line up.
Here's another feeling, but not a specific prediction, yet: there will soon be a good short-term FOREX play, probably involving EUR. Don't know yet if USD or CHF will be better, but it will happen--I just don't know if it will be good enough to get into. Yet.
Glad you're doing well K5.
Time to sharpen your recognition skills.
K5 NEVER interacts with agip in such a civil manner =>
Chemical Reagent =/= K5.
Recognizer of Bad Recognizers wrote:
R2D3 wrote:Glad you're doing well K5.
Time to sharpen your recognition skills.
K5 NEVER interacts with agip in such a civil manner =>
Chemical Reagent =/= K5.
to be fair, I did yell at Chemical Reagent, if briefly.
but you're right.
I wonder how the dark lord is.
He lives in Boston, right? Without Deena K in the race he could go cheer without having to possibly cheer for a Jewish person. Maybe he was out on the course on Patriot's Day, happy.
Unless he went to watch in Brookline of course. That would be a major oopsie.
going by the VIX theory of market timing, we are likely to see a drop in the stock market here - the vix is about as low as it has been recently
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EVIX+Interactive#
{"range":"1y"}
52 week high for global stocks (VT)
so Chemical Reagent has that painful decision - to stay out or get back in at higher prices. Unless he already got back in.
I hate that decision - it kills me. It's like a trap.
AND YES THE NASDAQ HIT AN ALL TIME HIGH AFTER 15 YEARS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
By my calculation, if the OP had sold 1 SP500 short on the day this thread started to put his money where his mouth was, and held that position through today, he would have lost:
$131200.00.
coach d wrote:
By my calculation, if the OP had sold 1 SP500 short on the day this thread started to put his money where his mouth was, and held that position through today, he would have lost:
$131200.00.
Wow, that is a BIG number!!!!
And if he converted it to Mexican pesos, he would have lost roughly:
2,013,920 pesos!!!
Now let's calculate if the OP had sold 10 SP500 short!!!
Seriously though, why don't you think selling his stock holdings was enough to "put his money where his mouth was"? Selling surely was action, and not just talk.
Not necessary for him to take a much bigger risk (unlimited downside) by shorting. Missed opportunity cost by sitting out is one thing and might be prudent when stocks are overvalued, shorting into a bull market is something entirely different and exposes one to true losses.
context wrote:
coach d wrote:By my calculation, if the OP had sold 1 SP500 short on the day this thread started to put his money where his mouth was, and held that position through today, he would have lost:
$131200.00.
Wow, that is a BIG number!!!!
And if he converted it to Mexican pesos, he would have lost roughly:
2,013,920 pesos!!!
Now let's calculate if the OP had sold 10 SP500 short!!!
Seriously though, why don't you think selling his stock holdings was enough to "put his money where his mouth was"? Selling surely was action, and not just talk.
Not necessary for him to take a much bigger risk (unlimited downside) by shorting. Missed opportunity cost by sitting out is one thing and might be prudent when stocks are overvalued, shorting into a bull market is something entirely different and exposes one to true losses.
Oh boy, here we go with the "true losses" v "opportunity costs" argument again. Haven't we been here, like 4 thousand or so posts ago?
Don't count your chickens before they hatch. They may turn out to be rotten eggs.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Don't count your chickens before they hatch. They may turn out to be rotten eggs.
Or rotten chickens. Even worse.
Just bought in at 17,975, index.
Not a huge buy, but respectable. Will sell in the next 3 days. Didn't short, didn't have enough confidence it would drop more than 40-50.
Anyone else have any experience with DDM?
Closed out of my long dollar index position yesterday MOC when my stop got hit (stop was at 96.200, just below previous recent low of 96.315).
I pointed out a while ago the potential for a large degree double top in bonds, which would not be something that anyone long the market would want to see. This has not been invalidated or activated, but the double top in USDX has been activated, and projects to the 90-point region. I'm not calling a major top, but if you've been long the dollar since late 2011 like I have been, I think you want to take profits here.
While this is a bearish call for the currency, I think it\'s a bullish call for stocks (unless you have an extended period of low growth/profits with very low interest rates which would be comparable to the 2000 top). Right now it just looks like an extended market cycle, as the FED doesn't appear to be ready to hike rates any time soon.
Chemical Reagent wrote:
Anyone else have any experience with DDM?
The standard recommendation is that you go every six months.
Pointing Out the Obvious wrote:
Chemical Reagent wrote:Anyone else have any experience with DDM?
The standard recommendation is that you go every six months.
Ho
Ho
Ho
Interesting, there is actually some rationality today. I have no doubt that it will soon be replaced by stupidity. The only question is whether or not to double down.