Hey, Agip, Good thing you weren't holding Peloton into earnings. Ouch!
You weren't. were you?
Hey, Agip, Good thing you weren't holding Peloton into earnings. Ouch!
You weren't. were you?
Igy, sorry to hear about the passing of your brother in law. Condolences.
I just bought a really unique set of japanese wood chisels this afternoon. They are the bomb!
Can't describe the effect of these hand made beauties, and the care that went into them. Picked then up used so got them for a fraction of what they were new, about the only way i would buy them.
Got two really sweet italian woodworking machines on backorder, high-end stuff, so Ihave something to look forward to this fall.
Flipping lots of machines, but mostly busy re-sawing a load of nice hardwoods i picked up free locally when people get their trees cut down.
Fun stuff.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Seattle,
As mentioned the trail was primitive, marked in spots with cairns. My son has a gps that tracks trails, so that was helpful. We saw no one on the trip. We had to negotiate a ridge which on the downward side to the lake was littered with large boulders. Near the bottom I slipped and ricocheted off two boulders, scraping my arm, hitting my head, and tearing my tent stuff sack. Nothing serious, but it gets your intention. I ended up getting somewhat wedged, and thought to myself “ok, take your time, and think about your next move.” It was somewhat intimidating going back through the same boulder field on the way out. Being fresh, rather than at the end of a long day made a big difference. On the way home we took a circuitous drive that took us through close to 100 miles of dirt roads; largely unpopulated swaths of National Forrest.
Igy
You hiked over 100 miles in 3 days? I am impressed.
Seattle,
Thanks. It was my brother. He had some co-morbidities, but not unlike most 75 year old Americans. Contracted a respiratory after the second Moderna vaccine, never cleared up. Unsure if there was a connection.
My wife’s great grandfather was a wood engraver for Harper’s Magazine. Through her family we inherited a number of his chisels, and tools of the trade. I have used them more to refinish furniture. Get old paint and varnish out of crevasses, and not their intended use.
Igy
Igy, sad news about your brother and once again, my condolences.
One thing is for certain, the current health crisis of the last year and a half should show us not to take our time here for granted. Not in the least.
seattle prattle wrote:
Hey, Agip, Good thing you weren't holding Peloton into earnings. Ouch!
You weren't. were you?
Nah sold those shares long ago.
I’m currently in the hole in a minuscule way with some Vegas stocks. Betting that people will want to go there when delta fades.
Seattle,
Thanks. My wife and I take care of ourselves, eat right, limited alcohol, exercise, keep our doctor appointments. I had my stumbles, and same with my spouse. It seems if you are generally healthy you can overcome challenges that appear more frequently post 60.
Igy
Racket, PhD wrote:
agip wrote:
HAPPY EIGHTH ANNIVERSARY DOWN GOES THE DOW!!!!!
We've been through a few things, eh?
From the original post, we're up about 12.9% per year annualized, dividends reinvested. One of the best investing periods of our lifetimes, I suspect.
without dividends, still 10.3% or thereabouts.
Carry on, wayward sons.
There'll be peace when we are done.
Hard to believe there even was really a time when stocks actually went down. What was it like? I imagine it was like living before indoor plumbing or electricity.
About 42 years ago, I came home from a 2 week vacation in Copenhagen ( I was still single ) and found this in my mail.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EB2TJXAXsAMFOmr.jpgBarry Ritholtz linked to the whole article 2 years ago.
https://ritholtz.com/1979/08/the-death-of-equities/I had saved that issue for years, including 4 moves, but alas, my wife "accidentally" threw it out.
let's go short term this week.
Three MFing months , no more.
BTC +37
Tech +15
TSLA +13
Healthcare +10
ARKK +9
REITS +9
SP500 +8
Comms +7
Utils +7
USA +7
Clean Energy +6
Cons Discr +4
TIPS +4
Corp Bonds +3
Financials +3
VIX +3
Global 60/40 +3
US Value +2
Consumer Staples +2
Retail +2
Junk +2
Small Caps +2
Industrials 0
Materials -1
Treasuries +1
Non US Developed +1
Energy -4
Gold -4
Emerging -4
Hussman -5
PTON -7
China -13
GME -20
Weed -21
Looks like money has flowed out of everything into tech over the last quarter. Look at ARKK, again.
Also look at the giant lead TIPS have over straight treasuries. When do we dump TIPS, figuring inflation will flatten in 2022, making regular treasuries more attractive? This is the sort of thing where allocators like me sweat. Thank goodness I don't have to worry about any one stocks' corporate earnings.
Commercial real estate continues to do very well, Probably benefiting from how well real estate does during inflationary times and the high yield they offer compared to bonds. And these low interest rates make REITS more profitable.
Emerging mkts in a shallow hole. This is why it is hard to be a contrarian. Buying emerging has been a contrarian move for a decade. Not paying off yet. Now? Has everyone given up on them NOW? My worry continues to be that manufacturing is simply not a way for a poor nation to build itself up. That it's different this time so emerging markets don't have any real easy way to get rich, like Japan, SK and China had.
Gold doing poorly despite inflation and increased unrest around the world. Coiled spring or 19c investment that doesn;t work anymore? Or has BTC killed gold as a diversifier away from fiat money?
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/Cramers-Stocks-For-The-Next-Decade-2000_0.jpg?itok=A7Rbn8Pd
And your point is?
I owned many of those. And it is amongst the smartest thing i did as an investor. Clearly.,
Inktomi was one of my all time favorites. Got bought out by Yahoo, which got bought out by Verizon. So, no future there, aye?
Infospace, i lost on. But it set me up for when more viable social platforms emerged, like Facebook. You know, facebook - the one that made countless early investors into millionaires.
Other names I dabbled in from back then were ebay (bought it in the late nineties but didn't hold on to it), apple, google, amazon (early investor, got out, got back in majorly about 5 years ago), and a host of the smaller ones that have dissappeared.
It was a very lucrative sector and continues to be. People, like myself, who were willing to dabble there have been proven right over time. Of course, there is some strategizing in minimizing the losses and weathering the inevitable failures, but it is not so hard.
If you need any convincing, scroll down to the post below yours and see where Tech resides, and has largely resided, since the days noted in your ill-guided post.
seattle prattle wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/Cramers-Stocks-For-The-Next-Decade-2000_0.jpg?itok=A7Rbn8PdAnd your point is?
I owned many of those. And it is amongst the smartest thing i did as an investor. Clearly.,
Inktomi was one of my all time favorites. Got bought out by Yahoo, which got bought out by Verizon. So, no future there, aye?
Infospace, i lost on. But it set me up for when more viable social platforms emerged, like Facebook. You know, facebook - the one that made countless early investors into millionaires.
Other names I dabbled in from back then were ebay (bought it in the late nineties but didn't hold on to it), apple, google, amazon (early investor, got out, got back in majorly about 5 years ago), and a host of the smaller ones that have dissappeared.
It was a very lucrative sector and continues to be. People, like myself, who were willing to dabble there have been proven right over time. Of course, there is some strategizing in minimizing the losses and weathering the inevitable failures, but it is not so hard.
If you need any convincing, scroll down to the post below yours and see where Tech resides, and has largely resided, since the days noted in your ill-guided post.
it does show the difficulty of stock picking.
I've found that if you pick 10 stocks, 3 will be disasters, 5 will be general market perfomers and 2 will be home runs. The hope is that the disasters don't outweigh the home runs.
So it's hard to look at lists like this and draw much meaning.
Also, it's not just tech stocks that go away...take a look at the components of the Dow or the biggest stocks in the SPX. Stodgy indices... but even in those names come and go and many are blowups.
agip wrote:
seattle prattle wrote:
And your point is?
I owned many of those. And it is amongst the smartest thing i did as an investor. Clearly.,
Inktomi was one of my all time favorites. Got bought out by Yahoo, which got bought out by Verizon. So, no future there, aye?
Infospace, i lost on. But it set me up for when more viable social platforms emerged, like Facebook. You know, facebook - the one that made countless early investors into millionaires.
Other names I dabbled in from back then were ebay (bought it in the late nineties but didn't hold on to it), apple, google, amazon (early investor, got out, got back in majorly about 5 years ago), and a host of the smaller ones that have dissappeared.
It was a very lucrative sector and continues to be. People, like myself, who were willing to dabble there have been proven right over time. Of course, there is some strategizing in minimizing the losses and weathering the inevitable failures, but it is not so hard.
If you need any convincing, scroll down to the post below yours and see where Tech resides, and has largely resided, since the days noted in your ill-guided post.
it does show the difficulty of stock picking.
I've found that if you pick 10 stocks, 3 will be disasters, 5 will be general market perfomers and 2 will be home runs. The hope is that the disasters don't outweigh the home runs.
So it's hard to look at lists like this and draw much meaning.
Also, it's not just tech stocks that go away...take a look at the components of the Dow or the biggest stocks in the SPX. Stodgy indices... but even in those names come and go and many are blowups.
True enough,
But not to be the fool on the hill only to end in penny lane, the trick was back then, to pick the industry leaders. Those were the Apple and Google, Facebook, etc. Amazon took a special kind of forebearance due to its years of delayed profitability.
As i recall, with the dotcom collapse of 2000, i held tight to Apple and added more on the rebound, and moved into small caps since i always heard how they fair especially well in the early years of a bull cycle.
From the early days of the ETFs, and especially leveraged ETFs, i gave up trying to pick the winners and bought Tech and small cap.
Everyone knew in the early days of the internet stocks that most of them wouldn't be around in 5 years, if that. Nobody cared. They made money in the short term, and the safer bet was to stick with the leaders, so smart investors invested accordingly.
Wring your hands on the sidelines, those that would, but don't expect anyone to admire your for it.
agip wrote:
Hussman -5
Thanks for noticing our sale price.
Folks, this is a great opportunity to get into a possibly quality fund that has lost less than 40% since inception (not counting fees 🤑). The fund is in positive territory for the year and may not be there much longer, so get in before it’s too late.
And you don’t have to take just my word for it. One of the thread’s top 40 prognosticators - we know him as “Blind Squirrel Igy” - has been touting this fund for years (though he never purchased it for his own clients). Be like Igy and buy HSGFX. You might not regret it too much!
seattle prattle wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/Cramers-Stocks-For-The-Next-Decade-2000_0.jpg?itok=A7Rbn8PdAnd your point is?
I owned many of those. And it is amongst the smartest thing i did as an investor. Clearly.,
Inktomi was one of my all time favorites. Got bought out by Yahoo, which got bought out by Verizon. So, no future there, aye?
Infospace, i lost on. But it set me up for when more viable social platforms emerged, like Facebook. You know, facebook - the one that made countless early investors into millionaires.
Other names I dabbled in from back then were ebay (bought it in the late nineties but didn't hold on to it), apple, google, amazon (early investor, got out, got back in majorly about 5 years ago), and a host of the smaller ones that have dissappeared.
It was a very lucrative sector and continues to be. People, like myself, who were willing to dabble there have been proven right over time. Of course, there is some strategizing in minimizing the losses and weathering the inevitable failures, but it is not so hard.
If you need any convincing, scroll down to the post below yours and see where Tech resides, and has largely resided, since the days noted in your ill-guided post.
https://twitter.com/hussmanjp/status/1430897362260529166John Hussman wrote:
agip wrote:
Hussman -5
Thanks for noticing our sale price.
Folks, this is a great opportunity to get into a possibly quality fund that has lost less than 40% since inception (not counting fees 🤑). The fund is in positive territory for the year and may not be there much longer, so get in before it’s too late.
And you don’t have to take just my word for it. One of the thread’s top 40 prognosticators - we know him as “Blind Squirrel Igy” - has been touting this fund for years (though he never purchased it for his own clients). Be like Igy and buy HSGFX. You might not regret it too much!
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E98x3UGXIAQ0dQf?format=jpg&name=mediumseattle prattle wrote:
And your point is?
I owned many of those. And it is amongst the smartest thing i did as an investor. Clearly.,
Inktomi was one of my all time favorites. Got bought out by Yahoo, which got bought out by Verizon. So, no future there, aye?
Infospace, i lost on. But it set me up for when more viable social platforms emerged, like Facebook. You know, facebook - the one that made countless early investors into millionaires.
Other names I dabbled in from back then were ebay (bought it in the late nineties but didn't hold on to it), apple, google, amazon (early investor, got out, got back in majorly about 5 years ago), and a host of the smaller ones that have dissappeared.
It was a very lucrative sector and continues to be. People, like myself, who were willing to dabble there have been proven right over time. Of course, there is some strategizing in minimizing the losses and weathering the inevitable failures, but it is not so hard.
If you need any convincing, scroll down to the post below yours and see where Tech resides, and has largely resided, since the days noted in your ill-guided post.
Interesting, but behind a paywall, which keeps out the freeloaders (like me). That aside, it seems like the article might have been noteworthy some years ago, though at this point, more like the new normal....
I've noticed how Google stock appreciation has been particularly strong this last year and esp. of late, while the Amazon luster has faded after shining so brightly during the early phases of the pandemic. I can understand why in the case of the latter, but not sure why Google is coming on so strong.
Cover is the significance of the post. Like the Cramer list. Both the flip side of the Gente “Death of Equities” post. Many new records beyond new domestic stock market highs: corporate debt, government debt, personal debt, central bank daily liquidity, used car prices, house prices, Fed balance sheet, top 5% wealth versus bottom 50%, unprofitable companies coming to public markets, use of non-GAAP accounting, stock buybacks, stock market capitalization to GDP, junk bonds, corporate bonds, government bonds, population dependent on government subsistence, Tim Cook’s $750 million dollar stock options, SPAC issuance, crypto issuance, meme stocks…really a list that could go on quite a bit further. Of course the high domestic stock markets are great for sellers. For buyers? It is by far the greatest stock market bubble ever, and not surprisingly people will believe almost anything, including Fed invincibility.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Cover is the significance of the post. Like the Cramer list. Both the flip side of the Gente “Death of Equities” post. Many new records beyond new domestic stock market highs: corporate debt, government debt, personal debt, central bank daily liquidity, used car prices, house prices, Fed balance sheet, top 5% wealth versus bottom 50%, unprofitable companies coming to public markets, use of non-GAAP accounting, stock buybacks, stock market capitalization to GDP, junk bonds, corporate bonds, government bonds, population dependent on government subsistence, Tim Cook’s $750 million dollar stock options, SPAC issuance, crypto issuance, meme stocks…really a list that could go on quite a bit further. Of course the high domestic stock markets are great for sellers. For buyers? It is by far the greatest stock market bubble ever, and not surprisingly people will believe almost anything, including Fed invincibility.
2011 - "Valuations are absurd right now - don't buy!"
2012 - "Valuations are absurd right now - don't buy!"
2013 - "Valuations are absurd right now - don't buy!"
2014 - "Valuations are absurd right now - don't buy!"
2015 - "Valuations are absurd right now - don't buy!"
2016 - "Valuations are absurd right now - don't buy!"
2017 - "Valuations are absurd right now - don't buy!"
2018 - "Valuations are absurd right now - don't buy!"
2019 - "Valuations are absurd right now - don't buy!"
2020 - "Valuations are absurd right now - don't buy!"
2021 - "Valuations are absurd right now - don't buy!"
Do you know how disgustingly rich someone would be today if they put everything they had into the market in 2011?
It's like that quote about planting trees - best time to do it was 25 years ago. Second best time is now. Dow 35k is gonna look like a bargain when it's at 100k+ in 10 years.
Half the years you mentioned valuations were not absurd. Besides, none of that insures a decade of market rise won’t be wiped out in weeks, and stay there for decade. How many $Trillions did it take to move off the March 2020 lows? How many $Trillions will it take next time?
How’s home affordability by the way? Or a dream car for that matter? No difference than the stock market. Nothing special here, other than the price rise is posted on a moment by moment basis.
