A new service to LRC!
I will, maybe, if this goes well and I remember to do it, give you a macro economic chart every day or two to bring some facts to the table. Lord knows we need them, instead of memes from shlt posters and inflammatory posts from trolls.
Today is Fed government tax receipts. We often talk about spending, but rarely the other side of the equation. Looking at fed revenues tells us more of what we can afford. And here the news is good - revenues are around 20% higher than where they were in the Trump admin, although down a little from their Biden Admin peak.
The boost is because of strong post-covid economic activity, incl capital gains realized after the 2021 bull market in stocks.
The recent decline is thought to be because capital gains tax receipts were down this year because 2022 was a bad year for stocks. 2023 has seen a strong 20% gain in stocks so we'll likely see receipts go back up again.
This is not an inflation adjusted number so some of the boost is not 'real' but the result of inflation.
Takeaway: Sure, spending has gone up, but so has revenue, so the deficit has not increased as much as you'd think.