Fat hurts wrote:
Rigged for Hillary wrote:
It factors, big time. Polls which use likely voters are much more accurate than those which use registered voters. I mentioned this a few months ago.
538 takes that all into account. I'm sure other aggregators do as well. Rasmussen gets a C+ rating from 538 because it doesn't do as good a job of predicting outcomes.
Yep I like 538 because they use algorithm which factors that in.
It doesn’t matter if 99% disapprove if they don’t vote.
Alan
And speaking of possible collusion:
Runningart2004 wrote:
Fat hurts wrote:
538 takes that all into account. I'm sure other aggregators do as well. Rasmussen gets a C+ rating from 538 because it doesn't do as good a job of predicting outcomes.
Yep I like 538 because they use algorithm which factors that in.
It doesn’t matter if 99% disapprove if they don’t vote.
Alan
Both Norpoth & CafePress have proven superior presidential election prediction records than 538.
Here's a crazy but true phenomenon: it is the "Spirit mask index." It has a perfect record since 1996. It tracks which presidential election candidate has the most Halloween masks sold. Trump masks outsold Hillary masks in 2016.
Fat hurts wrote:
Make America Great Again wrote:
Most people indicted by Mueller are Russians (GRU agents, Internet firm people) who cannot be brought to courts in the US. In other words, this is all for the "show" to impress the audience. So the Russians interfered in the election. There is no evidence they colluded with anyone in the US or they had any impact on the outcome.
People like Manafort and Gates were indicted on charges unrelated to the Trump campaign. And then there are those who have been charged of process crime... having lied to either Congress or FBI.
It looks more and more like Ken Starr's fishing expedition. You look for a crime, and cannot find enough evidence. You keep looking until you find something, even if that has nothing to do with the original investigation. The Deep State showed leniency when Clinton caved in. But President Trump remains defiant because he is not a wimp.
Presidential harassment did not work for GOP in 1990s. It won't work for Dems this time, either. It's time to "move on" and focus on the real needs of people.
I don't think you have been following closely.
There has been tons of evidence of collusion. Just the Trump Tower meeting can be legally construed as Conspiracy Against the United States. And so far, we know of over 100 contacts between Russian operatives and Trump campaign officials. This included at least 27 meetings in addition to the famous Trump Tower meeting. Add to all that the fact that the Trump campaign gave blanket denials over and over, saying there was no contact whatsoever.
Yes, most (but not all) of the charges against Americans so far were for lying to the special counsel or to congress. But look what they were lying about. They were lying to cover up evidence of collusion. It's collusion that definitely happened.
Trump has brought all this on by himself:
1) If he had hired a competent campaign manager, the Donald Jr. meeting would have never happened. Instead of notifying the FBI, Manafort actually attended the meeting.
2) There was absolutely no reason to fire Comey. Trump compounded it by admitting it was because of the Russia investigation.
3) A good attorney would have advised against the NDAs. It's questionable whether they're even enforcable and there's nothing to prevent the other party from disclosing their existence. Anyone who wasn't swayed by the Acess Hollywood tape wouldn't have cared about Trump having an affair or a tryst with a porn star.
4) As soon as the campaign started, any contact with Russia needed to end. That's a no-brainer.
Without any of the above there would be no Mueller investigation.
I have no idea what will be in the Mueller report, but Trump is a stupid man that makes bad decisions and doesn't follow the rules, so it's very possible there could be enough in the report to bring him down.
SDSU Aztec wrote:
Fat hurts wrote:
I don't think you have been following closely.
There has been tons of evidence of collusion. Just the Trump Tower meeting can be legally construed as Conspiracy Against the United States. And so far, we know of over 100 contacts between Russian operatives and Trump campaign officials. This included at least 27 meetings in addition to the famous Trump Tower meeting. Add to all that the fact that the Trump campaign gave blanket denials over and over, saying there was no contact whatsoever.
Yes, most (but not all) of the charges against Americans so far were for lying to the special counsel or to congress. But look what they were lying about. They were lying to cover up evidence of collusion. It's collusion that definitely happened.
4) As soon as the campaign started, any contact with Russia needed to end. That's a no-brainer.
n.
that's not true - there is nothing wrong with contact between nations by campaign officials. But there are strict laws on what is appropriate and what is not appropriate - Trumpers do not follow laws and Trumpers lie about virtually everything. So we have to investigate and tear the country apart, because we elected a group of outlaws.
Rigged for Hillary wrote:
Runningart2004 wrote:
Yep I like 538 because they use algorithm which factors that in.
It doesn’t matter if 99% disapprove if they don’t vote.
Alan
Both Norpoth & CafePress have proven superior presidential election prediction records than 538.
Here's a crazy but true phenomenon: it is the "Spirit mask index." It has a perfect record since 1996. It tracks which presidential election candidate has the most Halloween masks sold. Trump masks outsold Hillary masks in 2016.
Yeah but that’s a small sample size. Still neat.
Alan
The WH has announced they will soon identify who leaked Trump's workaholic-like schedule. Any IT guys on LR know how difficult it would be to typically access and print something without being detected?
Monkeys typing. wrote:
PIO!!!!! wrote:
He says PREDICTIONS, not guarantees. REALLY? We all thought you had the guaranteed answers to what happens in D.C. Give it a rest, you aren't looking too bright with a post like that fp.
Wow, this post really proves it. Flagpole has gone into hiding after reading it.
Flagpole means Failure in Ohio.
Agree 100% with this. Flagpole has ALREADY been proven wrong. But it's not just him. Agip, Fat Hurts, LL, Trollminator, are ALL changing their words of what would happen. FAILED fellas, big time.
SDSU Aztec wrote:
The WH has announced they will soon identify who leaked Trump's workaholic-like schedule. Any IT guys on LR know how difficult it would be to typically access and print something without being detected?
Simply take a photo, retype the schedule, and destroy the photos. ... No paper trail. No paper with secret decoder elements hidden within, and no fingerprints to search for.
Best guess to the leaker is Melania.
Rigged for Hillary wrote:
Runningart2004 wrote:
Yep I like 538 because they use algorithm which factors that in.
It doesn’t matter if 99% disapprove if they don’t vote.
Alan
Both Norpoth & CafePress have proven superior presidential election prediction records than 538.
Here's a crazy but true phenomenon: it is the "Spirit mask index." It has a perfect record since 1996. It tracks which presidential election candidate has the most Halloween masks sold. Trump masks outsold Hillary masks in 2016.
If 10000 people predict the presidential race using the coin flip method, some of those people will beat the polling aggregators.
So if it wasn't CafePress it would have been some other equally silly predictor.
Fiagpole is sinking wrote:
Monkeys typing. wrote:
Wow, this post really proves it. Flagpole has gone into hiding after reading it.
Flagpole means Failure in Ohio.
Agree 100% with this. Flagpole has ALREADY been proven wrong. But it's not just him. Agip, Fat Hurts, LL, Trollminator, are ALL changing their words of what would happen. FAILED fellas, big time.
It's true. I did change my words.
I used to say, "Tiny is going to prison."
Now I say, "Individual-1 is going prison."
So I guess you got me.
Fat hurts wrote:
Rigged for Hillary wrote:
Both Norpoth & CafePress have proven superior presidential election prediction records than 538.
Here's a crazy but true phenomenon: it is the "Spirit mask index." It has a perfect record since 1996. It tracks which presidential election candidate has the most Halloween masks sold. Trump masks outsold Hillary masks in 2016.
If 10000 people predict the presidential race using the coin flip method, some of those people will beat the polling aggregators.
So if it wasn't CafePress it would have been some other equally silly predictor.
Coin flips? LOL! CafePress actually uses metrics from all 50 states from their sales of political trinkets: hats, coffee mugs, t-shirts, bumper stickers, pens, etc. Trump gear outsold Hillary gear in 2016. 100% winning presidential prediction record. I will gladly take the Primary Model (Norpoth) over 538 for the 2020 presidential election season (unless of course, Nate Silver is in agreement with Norpoth). Norpoth is the true presidential election guru, not Nate Silver. Norpoth owns Silver, never forget that.
After the dem nominee in 2020 is announced, I will cite the numbers from Norpoth, IBD/TIPP, CafePress & the 13 Keys. Those are the reliable "go to" spots.. If they all say that Trump is going to win, then you can take that to the bank- and don't bother with the presidential polls from 538, CNN, MSNBC, Fox (too) & all the other alphabet networks- because they are all wrong.
M-A-G-A!!!
So congress has a deal, so says the Wapo...just 1.6 bn for spanky's folly. Call me weak spined, but that sounds very low...so low that old fake hair won't sign it. It's a slap in the face.
Dems should have upped it to $2 bn, just so trump would sign the darn bill.
Or maybe Dems are holding back another $500 mn in reserve, in case they need to sweeten the pot.
Stock market likes the deal tho - futures are up.
Fat hurts wrote:
Rigged for Hillary wrote:
Both Norpoth & CafePress have proven superior presidential election prediction records than 538.
Here's a crazy but true phenomenon: it is the "Spirit mask index." It has a perfect record since 1996. It tracks which presidential election candidate has the most Halloween masks sold. Trump masks outsold Hillary masks in 2016.
If 10000 people predict the presidential race using the coin flip method, some of those people will beat the polling aggregators.
So if it wasn't CafePress it would have been some other equally silly predictor.
Your candidate choice sucked, Royally! She would have done no better. Only a bias person like yourself is not bright enough to look into her past. Predictors are only silly to you when they don't show your side in a favorable light. You really aren't too bright old man, try to listen more.
Fat hurts wrote:
Fiagpole is sinking wrote:
Agree 100% with this. Flagpole has ALREADY been proven wrong. But it's not just him. Agip, Fat Hurts, LL, Trollminator, are ALL changing their words of what would happen. FAILED fellas, big time.
It's true. I did change my words.
I used to say, "Tiny is going to prison."
Now I say, "Individual-1 is going prison."
So I guess you got me.
You and your ego got yourself. Sour grapes loser, that's what describes you best.
1100 wrote:
Your candidate choice sucked, Royally! She would have done no better. Only a bias person like yourself is not bright enough to look into her past. Predictors are only silly to you when they don't show your side in a favorable light. You really aren't too bright old man, try to listen more.
"A bias person"?!?
You probably don't realize how retarded that makes you sound.
agip wrote:
So congress has a deal, so says the Wapo...just 1.6 bn for spanky's folly. Call me weak spined, but that sounds very low...so low that old fake hair won't sign it. It's a slap in the face.
Dems should have upped it to $2 bn, just so trump would sign the darn bill.
Or maybe Dems are holding back another $500 mn in reserve, in case they need to sweeten the pot.
Stock market likes the deal tho - futures are up.
He's getting some cash for fencing. Looks like a deal that will get done. He'll probably have to sign it or it all goes right back on him. Wall fanatics such as Coulter and Limbaugh won't like it.
For the Trumpers complaining about the cost of Mueller's investigation:
TTH wrote:
agip wrote:
So congress has a deal, so says the Wapo...just 1.6 bn for spanky's folly. Call me weak spined, but that sounds very low...so low that old fake hair won't sign it. It's a slap in the face.
Dems should have upped it to $2 bn, just so trump would sign the darn bill.
Or maybe Dems are holding back another $500 mn in reserve, in case they need to sweeten the pot.
Stock market likes the deal tho - futures are up.
He's getting some cash for fencing. Looks like a deal that will get done. He'll probably have to sign it or it all goes right back on him. Wall fanatics such as Coulter and Limbaugh won't like it.
" House and Senate negotiators on Monday night agreed “in principle” to provide $1.375 billion for physical barriers at the southwestern border, according to two congressional aides. It is a figure far lower than the $5.7 billion that President Trump had demanded for a border wall."
WINNING!!!!
Flagpole is Wrong again...now watch him back peddle wrote:
Flagpole wrote:
Ok. I have listed them before.
These are PREDICTIONS, not guarantees.
1) I predict Trump will be found guilty of Obstruction of Justice.
2) I predict Trump will be found guilty of Money Laundering.
3) I predict that IF Trump has a sit-down interview with Robert Mueller (not answering written questions as he wants to do) where lawyers are not allowed to intervene that he will be found guilty of Perjury.
4) I predict that Trump will NOT be found guilty of conspiracy, but not because he is innocent of it, but because it is so very hard to prove. Also, could be part of a plea deal where he gets to drop this charge by admitting guilt to the others. I though will NOT be surprised if Mueller is able to make this stick. There is a lot of smoke on the collusion (conspiracy) issue, and he has a lot of people talking, so this could happen, but again, I predict not at this point for the reason I mentioned.
So, what will happen to him?
I predict that if Mueller releases soon that he will be impeached like Clinton was. I predict he will then resign or be convicted and removed by the Senate. This might end up being a Democrat house and senate after the 2018 elections, but I believe the information Mueller provides will be enough to make this a largely bi-partisan effort. IF we get passed the 2020 election and Trump is not re-elected, I predict he will still be punished in some way...financially or imprisonment or both.
I also predict that some bad charges will come down on people that are mostly out of the news now. I don't know for sure who that will be, but we will be surprised by someone...Pence, Sessions, Nunes, Ryan, or someone else...someone that isn't making headlines today with regard to this investigation will get slammed hard.
Yes Flagpole, over a year ago, on February 2nd, 2018....see what you said. What a complete joke you are. Now you will say I said that "if Mueller releases soon..." blah, blah, blah!
You're super proud of your moronic predictions when you make them, but as they don't come true, you fall back on words like "if", I said "if". Anybody can say if! You combine that with your Mueller is coming the Clown is done BS and you're looking like a pretty dumb 55 year old politician wanna be!
Well after well over a year, your "ifs" are total BS! Before this post, you repeatedly posted, Mueller's gonna get him. Total BS. You won't be proven wrong, you're already wrong. You are super insecure, which is obvious to most, and you yearn for the approval of others.
Well, brother, since you know what I'm going to say and what I am going to say is RIGHT, then why even bother? You answered your own accusation, brother. I said "if" he released soon. I have never said he would other than before Trump's term is over. I also said then that Trump wouldn't be charged with conspiracy, but now with more information, I believe he will.
How can I be wrong when Mueller's investigation isn't over? Wishful thinking on your part, brother.
Watch and learn...no IFs here:
Mueller IS coming.
The clown IS done.