Down goes the Dow

agip wrote:SPX ALL-TIME HIGH

Scares the heck outa me... we're getting up near 50% cash in our investment accounts now. One of us may retire in the near future, and we need to protect our capital to be sure we can continue to live the lifestyle to which we've become accustomed, simple though it may be...

VS-SJW-IR-TS idiot wrote:

agip wrote:SPX ALL-TIME HIGH

Scares the heck outa me... we're getting up near 50% cash in our investment accounts now. One of us may retire in the near future, and we need to protect our capital to be sure we can continue to live the lifestyle to which we've become accustomed, simple though it may be...

Stocks only go up

Racket, PhD wrote:

VS-SJW-IR-TS idiot wrote:

Scares the heck outa me... we're getting up near 50% cash in our investment accounts now. One of us may retire in the near future, and we need to protect our capital to be sure we can continue to live the lifestyle to which we've become accustomed, simple though it may be...

Stocks only go up

the number of bad stock market years when the economy is growing at 5% or more (like it is now)....is very small. That kind of growth provides a pretty sizable margin of error.

From Marc Chandler

la gente esta muy loca wrote:

agip wrote:

...so why is the dollar's share of global reserves at near all-time lows and declining fast and materially?

From Marc Chandler

https://twitter.com/marcmakingsense/status/1377570553570193408/photo/1

good stuff, gente

gracias

Racket, PhD wrote:

agip wrote:

I don't understand why it makes any sense to start the clock on a high point.

No one puts all their money in the market on one day, the worst day in decades to do so.

It's an almost useless stat.

It's a useful as claiming you're ahead on Election Day when all the votes haven't been counted.

Igy is basically a stock market version of "Stop The Count" lol. And complete with all the conspiracy theories and desperate grasping of hope. "Just you wait!!!! Any day now!"

Igy attends mask burning events in his state of Idaho which leads the nation with a 27% positive test rate. You can’t fix stupid.

How much is everyone up over the last 12 months? I was able to come up with some extra money a year ago and put it in near-ish the bottom and am up over 76% on my non-retirement account. If we have a drop like last year even once every 15 years, I'll be a happy camper.

Cassi wrote:

How much is everyone up over the last 12 months? I was able to come up with some extra money a year ago and put it in near-ish the bottom and am up over 76% on my non-retirement account. If we have a drop like last year even once every 15 years, I'll be a happy camper.

according to quicken, my entire portfolio is up 41% over the last 12 months.

My personal benchmark, VSMGX, is up around 37% so I've added some value.

Globally, stocks are up 64% over the period

US bonds are up 1% over the period

I'm around 65% in stocks.

The sad and lonely part is that my trading portfolio is up just 37% over the period. That's the one I spend all my time on. The other 90% of the portfolio is on automatic pilot but did much better. The reason is that I held some cash in the trading account over the spring and summer of 2020.

The lion's share of the portfolio went along untouched and did much better. Of course.

Up 71% in my brokerage accounts in the one year timeframe. One hundred percent stocks/ETFs.

Increased my holdings in small caps over the last year to about 20%, especially towards the later months, but still predominantly technology.

At some point I should move to a more conservative position.

this is remarkable

of course, I wouldn't trust a Russian business to give me correct change from a nickel.

Although... probably my most dependable expensive object is Russian made.

agip wrote:

this is remarkable

of course, I wouldn't trust a Russian business to give me correct change from a nickel.

Although... probably my most dependable expensive object is Russian made.

agip wrote:

agip wrote:

this is remarkable

of course, I wouldn't trust a Russian business to give me correct change from a nickel.

Although... probably my most dependable expensive object is Russian made.

https://twitter.com/MebFaber/status/1378040509390815239?s=20

That's very interesting. The issue with Russia is uncertainty about the future. Putin has probably been the single best thing to happen to Russia in the last 30 years. It is very, very much unknown how the country will fair once he is gone. Even though he is not that old yet and will probably reign effectively his entire life, things happen. I would not want to risk much on one person being alive and healthy.

“I can have it all without effort, savings, or work. I have special insight, stocks always go up over the long term, and the market will do it all for me. It is a new paradigm for America. We have the secret.”

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2021/03/04/is-the-market-still-overvalued

Doubled my HSGFX position on Friday.

Wall Street was closed today.

Good for you, Seattle. I know people who held cash throughout the whole dip and recovery. Insane. I I used leverage to increase my gains and made more in the last year than I have in the previous 5 combined. As a young guy (32), it was good practice for the next one since I was too young and broke to invest anything in 08 (I was a sophomore in college) or 2000-2002 (I was in jr. high). Boggles my mind there are grown adults out there who don't take advantages of these dips.

Cassi wrote:

seattle prattle wrote:

Up 71% in my brokerage accounts in the one year timeframe. One hundred percent stocks/ETFs.

Increased my holdings in small caps over the last year to about 20%, especially towards the later months, but still predominantly technology.

At some point I should move to a more conservative position.

Good for you, Seattle. I know people who held cash throughout the whole dip and recovery. Insane. I I used leverage to increase my gains and made more in the last year than I have in the previous 5 combined. As a young guy (32), it was good practice for the next one since I was too young and broke to invest anything in 08 (I was a sophomore in college) or 2000-2002 (I was in jr. high). Boggles my mind there are grown adults out there who don't take advantages of these dips.

Congrats on you, too. Likewise, for Agip. I remember some rumblings back about 6 months ago and things have looked up since then, so it would seem.

I don't really take any of this for granted. So a leveraged investor (like me) may be looking particularly good at this level. Hooray for that. But with a pullback of any significance, the very opposite may be true. So maybe it averages out over time (?). Maybe not.

MIght be too early to tell.

I don't rule that out.

As a general rule i've come to understand, an unrealized gain, when converted to a realized gain under most circumstances, is worth substantially less. I try to remind myself of that when taking a measure of current levels.

Best of luck.

Gruntz wrote:

Racket, PhD wrote:

It's a useful as claiming you're ahead on Election Day when all the votes haven't been counted.

Igy is basically a stock market version of "Stop The Count" lol. And complete with all the conspiracy theories and desperate grasping of hope. "Just you wait!!!! Any day now!"

Igy attends mask burning events in his state of Idaho which leads the nation with a 27% positive test rate. You can’t fix stupid.

Yes, and large numbers of Californians and Washingtonians moving here every day. So many my property value is up 12% in the last 30 days according to Zillow. Likely selling price would be another 10% higher. Its so bad here with responsible government, and conservative lifestyle. Makes one wonder why those folks want to leave the virus obsessed triple masking liberal utopia states?

Masking has an entirely different meaning for me, thank God.

Sounds nice, Igy. And the house is looking great, too!

Every time I hear anything on LRC about the place i live in, it is destitute beyond words. So bad, I hardly recognize it. Just a festering hell-hole of misplaced placed priorities and misguided leadership.

I'm pretty sure my property values are continuing to rise, double digit year over year, as usual. But that only makes us here feel worse in our loathsome state of white privilege guilt.

I pretty much have LRC to thank for making me constantly aware of this. Otherwise, I might just consider myself fortunate. LOL.

Go figure.