Orme, Bruce, Johnson, Ihmels, Taylor, Stevens, C. Earl, K. Earl, May…
I think there’s a handful for the 10th spot, in no particular order:
Pollock, Sullivan, Livingston, Baruch, any surprise Boise girl.
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Some dude wrote:
I see a ton of tempo and threshold stuff. I don’t see anymore race pace than any other program. Check Herrimans kids, they hit race pace 800s or 600s a ton, so that ain’t it boss.
CDA is legit! I know they are tough….but I think Rocky has the ability to mix it up. Would be awesome for multiple Idaho squads to make NXN if they both run well at NXR.
Rocky has a low stick, with a potential second really strong runner in Lucas (9:12 3200). Tuft is emerging nicely with a sub 16 at altitude in Pocatello. Jensen and their pack might be able to mix it up, the kid was on their 4x800 state title team and ran a 4:10 in the 1500m which is worth 4:28 in the 1600. Maybe Boise can mix it up too, I guess it’ll all play out.
First week of practice:
Sam Jensen: 8*800 @ "Threshold." Total running time 21:15, elapsed time: 32:12. Total recovery: ~11 minutes across 6 reps (1:50 per, probably 1:45 and there's some extra recovery and not stopping the watch immediately). Rep times: 2:45, 2:39, 2:40, 2:40, 2:37, 2:34, 2:33, 2:36. Recovery is ~70%. Actual race pace: 5:12/mile. That's certainly not a threshold workout. Looks really close to race pace to me over those last 4 reps, especially with the longer recovery.
Rocky does plenty of tempo stuff, but the other comment is closer to the truth than your comment is.
Sam Jensen speed ratings this season starting at Caldwell: 163.13, 162.70, 164.60, 165.61, 167.27
Pierce Richardson: 163.43, 159.57, 163.20, 154.22, 163.50
Thomas Kurtz: 155.30, 150.17, 158.90, 165.80, 154.83
Jacob Thomas: 155.03, 156.60, 158.30, 163.67, 157.87
Reece Miller: 158.00, 154.30, 156.30, 155.91, 153.57
Parker Goggins: 156.63, DNR, Coming back from injury, 158.76, 156.23
Rocky's season best speed ratings: 186.99, 180.30, 172.57, 167.27, 165.80, 163.67, 163.50. Placings with those speed ratings at last year's NXR: 8th, 24th, 53rd, 88th, 93rd. That scores 160, closer to 4th than they were to their 3rd place finish last year. If you don't include the course that has been speed rated only once in the past and has 5 of their top 7 seasonal bests, their best speed ratings are 186.70, 180.30, 170.90, 167.27, 163.50, 158.90, 158.30. The last 3 are what you are hoping will improve to make them more competitive. They ran 163.43, 155.30, and 155.03 at Caldwell. Those represent improvements of .21 seconds, 10.8 seconds, and 6.81 seconds. I don't buy that any of these guys are going to suddenly find another 20-30 seconds this late in the year to make Rocky competitive with CDA. The actual data seems to agree with that as well.20 -
Would love to see some speed ratings for Anttonen and Goss from the Boise City championship meet, as they both ran two of the fastest times I could find from that course, and beat the rest of the field by almost a minute. If Anttonen continues to run like how he did at City + Nike Portland he is definitely a top 10 contender, and Goss might have re-instated himself as the guy to beat in 4a after losing to Athay at Nike Portland.
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SmoothieKing23 wrote:
Would love to see some speed ratings for Anttonen and Goss from the Boise City championship meet, as they both ran two of the fastest times I could find from that course, and beat the rest of the field by almost a minute. If Anttonen continues to run like how he did at City + Nike Portland he is definitely a top 10 contender, and Goss might have re-instated himself as the guy to beat in 4a after losing to Athay at Nike Portland.
I’m not a statistician and don’t have Meylan’s methods, but if I fit the 15 or so top guys and top 15 or so girls to season best speed ratings, kick out the top 4 and bottom four outliers, I match it to these speed ratings. Because I matched to season highs I would guess these are all a little high.
Antonnen. 174.8
Goss 173.46
Edwards 155.8
Durcan 155.3
Valdez 150.4
Wise 148.7
Grant 146.2
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SmoothieKing23 wrote:
Would love to see some speed ratings for Anttonen and Goss from the Boise City championship meet, as they both ran two of the fastest times I could find from that course, and beat the rest of the field by almost a minute. If Anttonen continues to run like how he did at City + Nike Portland he is definitely a top 10 contender, and Goss might have re-instated himself as the guy to beat in 4a after losing to Athay at Nike Portland.
I’m not a statistician and don’t have Meylan’s methods, but if I fit the 15 or so top guys and top 15 or so girls to season best speed ratings, kick out the top 4 and bottom four outliers, I match it to these speed ratings. Because I matched to season highs I would guess these are all a little high.
Antonnen. 174.8
Goss 173.46
Edwards 155.8
Durcan 155.3
Valdez 150.4
Wise 148.7
Grant 146.2
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Lllllll wrote:
SmoothieKing23 wrote:
Would love to see some speed ratings for Anttonen and Goss from the Boise City championship meet, as they both ran two of the fastest times I could find from that course, and beat the rest of the field by almost a minute. If Anttonen continues to run like how he did at City + Nike Portland he is definitely a top 10 contender, and Goss might have re-instated himself as the guy to beat in 4a after losing to Athay at Nike Portland.
I’m not a statistician and don’t have Meylan’s methods, but if I fit the 15 or so top guys and top 15 or so girls to season best speed ratings, kick out the top 4 and bottom four outliers, I match it to these speed ratings. Because I matched to season highs I would guess these are all a little high.
Antonnen. 174.8
Goss 173.46
Edwards 155.8
Durcan 155.3
Valdez 150.4
Wise 148.7
Grant 146.2
This is probably pretty close, all things considered.
I was curious so I looked back at Antonnen's speed ratings. He's showing a nice improvement- wouldn't shock me to see him top 10. Interesting to look back at some of those and see the trends, especially in light of my comment above about Rocky's trend line. He's in the mix of the Boise guys now.30 -
As pointed out in the NXN thread, Layton finished 3rd at Firman and then was 6th in merged scores at their divisional meet in Utah. Not good for Boise or Rocky… puts a lot of pressure on them to beat CDA or get 2nd at regionals if they want to go to NXN.
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SmoothieSmoovie wrote:
As pointed out in the NXN thread, Layton finished 3rd at Firman and then was 6th in merged scores at their divisional meet in Utah. Not good for Boise or Rocky… puts a lot of pressure on them to beat CDA or get 2nd at regionals if they want to go to NXN.
Everyone gets that there are just a lot of national class teams in Utah right now. It’s kind of crazy.
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What’s the latest on college commitments?
Smith to Stanford soccer
Heemeyer to BYU.
What else?
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Not from Idaho but still somewhat relevant-Caden Swanson from Jesuit committed to Gonzaga
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SmoothieKing23 wrote:
Not from Idaho but still somewhat relevant-Caden Swanson from Jesuit committed to Gonzaga
IDK why the downvotes... If anything, it's a good data point for the quality of program that guys like May, King, Blaser, Ringert, Helder, and Kemper should be looking at.
Anyone have any idea where they are all looking?11 -
This quoted post has been removed.
Did a little number crunching:
If they finish all at or a few seconds slower than their PR's, then they should average ~9:40 which is good enough for 6th right now. (9:00, 9:15, 9:50, 10:00, 10:10)
If the top guys stay the same but the other guys have decent improvements, then they can average 9:33, good enough for 1st on the leaderboard. (9:00, 9:15, 9:45, 9:50, 9:55)
If they all have really good days, I can see them averaging around 9:26, which would be #1 on the leaderboard by 10 seconds. (9:00, 9:10, 9:35, 9:40, 9:45)
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Elijah Armstrong wrote:
This quoted post has been removed.
Did a little number crunching:
If they finish all at or a few seconds slower than their PR's, then they should average ~9:40 which is good enough for 6th right now. (9:00, 9:15, 9:50, 10:00, 10:10)
If the top guys stay the same but the other guys have decent improvements, then they can average 9:33, good enough for 1st on the leaderboard. (9:00, 9:15, 9:45, 9:50, 9:55)
If they all have really good days, I can see them averaging around 9:26, which would be #1 on the leaderboard by 10 seconds. (9:00, 9:10, 9:35, 9:40, 9:45)
When did Hyrum Tuft run 9:50 2 mile, or even 3200m for that matter? I think it's pretty unlikely that Landon solos a 9:00 today considering that he's been banged up and his 9:03 in Idaho saw Sainsbury taking half the laps.
Evan Noonan ran 9:17 in his. I think a more likely scenario is that Landon runs around that time, Cody Lucas is 5-10 seconds back, Hyrum Tuft is 10-15 seconds back of Cody Lucas, Sam Jensen runs around 9:50 and another boy cracks 10. 9:15, 9:20-9:25, 9:35-9:40, 9:50, 10:00 seems pretty realistic for a 9:36-9:38 average. Keith Uitdewilligen had a 16:05 Firman/NXR PR and ran 9:32 3200m at Pasco but 9:36 locally with another off-season of fitness on him.
Gorze ran 8:57 in his exactly one year ago today. He had already run 13:42 for 3 miles and 14:41 for 5k that season. You're overestimating how close to their track PR's people run unless they've seen a huge uptick in fitness.00 -
Wouldn't be surprised if someone from Idaho commits to Gonzaga this year, Tyson loves recruiting from the PNW
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Hoka Rocky Mountain times
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speed scores wrote:
Elijah Armstrong wrote:
Did a little number crunching:
If they finish all at or a few seconds slower than their PR's, then they should average ~9:40 which is good enough for 6th right now. (9:00, 9:15, 9:50, 10:00, 10:10)
If the top guys stay the same but the other guys have decent improvements, then they can average 9:33, good enough for 1st on the leaderboard. (9:00, 9:15, 9:45, 9:50, 9:55)
If they all have really good days, I can see them averaging around 9:26, which would be #1 on the leaderboard by 10 seconds. (9:00, 9:10, 9:35, 9:40, 9:45)
When did Hyrum Tuft run 9:50 2 mile, or even 3200m for that matter? I think it's pretty unlikely that Landon solos a 9:00 today considering that he's been banged up and his 9:03 in Idaho saw Sainsbury taking half the laps.
Evan Noonan ran 9:17 in his. I think a more likely scenario is that Landon runs around that time, Cody Lucas is 5-10 seconds back, Hyrum Tuft is 10-15 seconds back of Cody Lucas, Sam Jensen runs around 9:50 and another boy cracks 10. 9:15, 9:20-9:25, 9:35-9:40, 9:50, 10:00 seems pretty realistic for a 9:36-9:38 average. Keith Uitdewilligen had a 16:05 Firman/NXR PR and ran 9:32 3200m at Pasco but 9:36 locally with another off-season of fitness on him.
Gorze ran 8:57 in his exactly one year ago today. He had already run 13:42 for 3 miles and 14:41 for 5k that season. You're overestimating how close to their track PR's people run unless they've seen a huge uptick in fitness.
Kudos to this-
9:22, 9:27, 9:39, 9:48, 9:56, 10:00, 10:01
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SmoothieSmoovie wrote:
speed scores wrote:
When did Hyrum Tuft run 9:50 2 mile, or even 3200m for that matter? I think it's pretty unlikely that Landon solos a 9:00 today considering that he's been banged up and his 9:03 in Idaho saw Sainsbury taking half the laps.
Evan Noonan ran 9:17 in his. I think a more likely scenario is that Landon runs around that time, Cody Lucas is 5-10 seconds back, Hyrum Tuft is 10-15 seconds back of Cody Lucas, Sam Jensen runs around 9:50 and another boy cracks 10. 9:15, 9:20-9:25, 9:35-9:40, 9:50, 10:00 seems pretty realistic for a 9:36-9:38 average. Keith Uitdewilligen had a 16:05 Firman/NXR PR and ran 9:32 3200m at Pasco but 9:36 locally with another off-season of fitness on him.
Gorze ran 8:57 in his exactly one year ago today. He had already run 13:42 for 3 miles and 14:41 for 5k that season. You're overestimating how close to their track PR's people run unless they've seen a huge uptick in fitness.
Kudos to this-
9:22, 9:27, 9:39, 9:48, 9:56, 10:00, 10:01
Do we have full results? I'm wondering how many boys broke 10:45 who will be getting into the varsity 3200 at districts during track. If Rocky has 10-12, Boise has like 8-9, T-line has like 6-7, and then Mountain View, Centennial, and Eagle all put 3-6 in each, we could really REALLY use two heats to avoid some of the problems from last year.
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Window Pain wrote:
SmoothieSmoovie wrote:
Kudos to this-
9:22, 9:27, 9:39, 9:48, 9:56, 10:00, 10:01
Do we have full results? I'm wondering how many boys broke 10:45 who will be getting into the varsity 3200 at districts during track. If Rocky has 10-12, Boise has like 8-9, T-line has like 6-7, and then Mountain View, Centennial, and Eagle all put 3-6 in each, we could really REALLY use two heats to avoid some of the problems from last year.
Eagle ran their HOKA 2 mile today and had 6 boys under the districts mark and at least 7 under 10:45. I don’t see the girls results yet.
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