Down goes the Dow

Anyone can trade futures. Most of them are setup specifically for small retail investors through mini and micro futures

Earnings Scorecard: For Q1 2021 (with 3 of the companies in the S&P 500 reporting actual results), 2 S&P 500 companies have reported a positive EPS surprise and 3 S&P 500 companies have reported a positive revenue surprise

Another record high!

Is he not aware of the massive stimulus bill that was just signed?

j-wo wrote:

Is he not aware of the massive stimulus bill that was just signed?

He likely is now, but he was not when he said those things weeks ago.

1 Month

GME +404%

BTC +56

Energy +20

Retail +18

Financials +11

Value +6

REITs +2

Small Caps +2

Hussman +2

USA 0

Short term TIPS 0

Non-US developed 0

60/40 -1

Junk -1

Consumer Discretionary -1

Weed -2

TIPS -2

Inter Treas -2

Vanguard Momentum -4

Corporate Bonds -4

Gold -5

Emerging -6

Tech -6

VXX -11

TSLA -15

China -15

ARKK -19

Obviously old fashioned value has dominated recently. Energy, financials, value.

Question is why and is it important? I suspect the top in 2000 looked a little like this - dot coms down 20% but not a whole lot of damage to the rest of the market. But that doesn't mean anything. Could read this as a giant positive - that tech has been losing money yet the US markets keep powering ahead regardless. Or a giant red flag.

Hussman continues to outperform.

BTC over $60,000 for the first time. Geez. Do we provide electricity to Argentina...or create stupid imaginary money? We'll go with the imaginary money yes please. Nuts that otherwise green people are fans of BTC.

1 year

Now for the fun stuff

A year ago was the covid crash. March 23 was the bottom so we still have some time to go.

But some huge numbers here and they will likely get even bigger for another 10 days.

GME +6545%

BTC +979

TSLA +519

ARKK +214

Retail +212

Weed +156

Consumer Discr +109

Small Caps +96

Vanguard Momo +95

Energy 94

China +82

Tech +82

Financials +77

USA +69

SPX +62

Non-US developed +62

Emerging +61

Value +56

60/40 +36

REITs +30

Junk +17

Corporate Bonds +12

TIPS +11

ST TIPS +10

Hussman +10

Gold +9

Inter Treas -1

VXX -71

Here the more familar post-covid pattern still holds. Speculative tech, small caps, BTC.

Look at the difference between TIPS and treasuries tho - amazing. (+11% vs -1%)We may not see that kind of divergence for a long time. And Short term TIPS have the same return as long term tips. Inflation fears are the driver here, not rates. A bunch of bond investors got caught surprised on the inflation surge, no doubt.

60/40 crushing rival Hussman.

No bubble in small caps?

Oh, sorry, forgot reopening and stimulus??

Yeah uhm, my BTC and crypto is killing right now.

My MANA went up 3.5x in the past week.

STX up to 1.27 from .69.

BTC and ETH crushing ATH's.

Yahtzee!

I took a look today at the source of my outperformance in calendar 2021.

I'm up 5% while my bogey, a global 60/40 fund is up just 2%

This is my entire personal portfolio I'm talking about, not just my trading account.

The outperformance is mostly from two large positions in actively managed value type funds.

They've been garbage for a decade but I held on to them for tax reasons and I just believed in them.

And in a few months they've made up for many years of underperformance. Not all years.

So was holding on to them a mistake I have a chance to recover from? Should I just buy VTI and be done with it, taking advantage of this spike in value?

I dunno. Value should do well eventually, right? Maybe it will keep doing well and this is just a turning point.

Holy hopping rutabagas.

8% growth

THIS YEAR.

4% unemployment.

THIS YEAR

The chance of accidents is large with all that moolah moving through the system, but maybe that kind of growth brings with it a large margin of error.

https://twitter.com/jimpethokoukis/status/1371258367847579648?s=21

Like Mom and Dad paying for the product at the corner lemonade stand. And the 10 year old kids all excited about their business venture. Really unhinged baloney sandwich that everyone is gorging themselves on.

Goldman talking shiite

agip wrote:

Holy hopping rutabagas.

8% growth

THIS YEAR.

4% unemployment.

THIS YEAR

The chance of accidents is large with all that moolah moving through the system, but maybe that kind of growth brings with it a large margin of error.

https://twitter.com/jimpethokoukis/status/1371258367847579648?s=21

Stocks only go up

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Like Mom and Dad paying for the product at the corner lemonade stand. And the 10 year old kids all excited about their business venture. Really unhinged baloney sandwich that everyone is gorging themselves on.

Imagine being 100% convinced that something was rigged by the most powerful government on Earth, like literally completely certain it can't fail because it's being endlessly propped up, and still betting against it just to prove a point.

That's bears for the past 13 years though though

Dr. Racket wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Like Mom and Dad paying for the product at the corner lemonade stand. And the 10 year old kids all excited about their business venture. Really unhinged baloney sandwich that everyone is gorging themselves on.

Imagine being 100% convinced that something was rigged by the most powerful government on Earth, like literally completely certain it can't fail because it's being endlessly propped up, and still betting against it just to prove a point.

That's bears for the past 13 years though though

I was thinking about this sort of thing...related but not exactly.

The reason no one can beat the market is not that people aren't smart and logical enough...it's that they are TOO smart and logical. The market is manic and nuts and runs on greed on fear. All these people trying to reason their way through investing are barking up the wrong tree. So they don't have a chance - basing decisions on an assumption of 13% growth instead of 17% growth and a PE of 15 instead of 19 or whatever. It's like a parent trying to use logic to rein in a bad behaving 8 year old.

Maybe we just need to stop thinking 'ok the market is crazy now but it will resolve soon to normal.'

There is no normal. That's just not the way all this works.

Just some uncoagulated thoughts.