Down goes the Dow

Das Unkle wrote:

Greg wrote:

Wow you operate in a different reality than me.

I held Tesla for about 1 month. Bought at 580 something sold right near the peak at 860.

Made about $1000 that is my only profit.

Everything else I've lost money on. I am holding for at least the next 6 months, probably the next 18.

I made $100k in the first 4-1/2 days of this year. Then lost a bit put peaked 2 weeks ago up another $30k after some weed stock I bought doubled in a few days.

In the last 2 weeks have lost over $160k. Nearly $90k this week alone.

This is really stressing me. Although I am only 19% in the market, I cannot take these losses psychologically. The ups are great but the downs are taking a toll on me.

I am thinking about going from 19% down to maybe 5% in the market

That's it...I bailed. After losing $35k on Mon and again on Tues, with a plus $35k bounceback on WEd, followed by losing $45k yesterday and then being up at noon today and watching my investments tank all afternoon to nearly down another $15k today, I sold all my Tesla, Chinese Evs, weed, and bitcoin just now.

Still ended up over $220k for the six or so months I was doing this -- but after having been up nearly $400k just two weeks ago, the ride was just too rough for me.

Earnings Scorecard: For Q4 2020 (with 96% of the companies in the S&P 500 reporting actual results), 79% of S&P 500 companies have reported a positive EPS surprise and 76% have reported a positive revenue surprise. If 79% is the final percentage, it will mark the third-highest percentage of S&P 500 companies reporting a positive EPS surprise since FactSet began tracking this metric in 2008.

geez

just buy an allocation fund and let it go man. You'll be much richer in the end and sleep better at night. Just think about how much richer you would be now if you just put everything into a 80/20 or 60/40 fund from the day you started your first job.

With zero work from you.

FBALX. 9.7% per year since inception in 1986. Easy peasy.

But kudos for what sounds like a big percentage win.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Bad Wigins wrote:

At this moment, the yield is back down to 1.45.

Look at the line of idiots, even you, trying to act like I'm the dumb one here. Yes, I would have bought them yesterday while they were cheap. And sold them now, or later, after the spike fixed itself, just as I predicted.

Watch it man. You’re treading on agip’s territory, he is the Ten Year Treasury day trader.?

IIRC it was you that brought up the topic of whether I'd want a 1.5 yielding bond, when I was sure it would soon be back to 1.42 as it is right this moment.

I haven't seen any coherent argument that I'm wrong about this. It was a mindless panic with lots of illogical trades. I hope my fund managers took full advantage.

The crash is inevitable and we will get smoked.

I am on the sideline now and feel great about it.

Bad Wigins wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Watch it man. You’re treading on agip’s territory, he is the Ten Year Treasury day trader.?

IIRC it was you that brought up the topic of whether I'd want a 1.5 yielding bond, when I was sure it would soon be back to 1.42 as it is right this moment.

I haven't seen any coherent argument that I'm wrong about this. It was a mindless panic with lots of illogical trades. I hope my fund managers took full advantage.

My comment was whether you would loan anyone money at 1.5%. Had nothing to do with a trade, more of a comment on the environment where interest rates are not market.

The Unkle wrote:

agip wrote:

geez

just buy an allocation fund and let it go man. You'll be much richer in the end and sleep better at night. Just think about how much richer you would be now if you just put everything into a 80/20 or 60/40 fund from the day you started your first job.

With zero work from you.

FBALX. 9.7% per year since inception in 1986. Easy peasy.

But kudos for what sounds like a big percentage win.

The crash is inevitable and we will get smoked.

I am on the sideline now and feel great about it.

well I'll tell you the OP who has watched the Dow go up 108% plus dividends from his post... might not feel so great right now.

I wake up happy on Saturday because I know I will soon have some coffee and do these index/sector updates.

What does that say about me? That's rhetorical.

1 month

BTC +56

Energy +22

Weed +18

Financials +12

Small Caps +6

Vanguard momentum +6

Value +5

USA +3

REITs +3

Non-US devlped +2

Emerging +2

Tech +1

Consumer Discretionary 0

Junk 0

China -1

Hussman -1

60/40 -1

Inter Treas -1

TIPS -2

Corp Bonds -2

ARKK -5

Gold -6

Retail -10

TSLA -15

VXX -23

GME -68

Pretty straightforward rotation/profit taking out of profitable names. But a very good month even with the dump at the end. SPX 3% below all time highs.

Note that a month ago was also a dump, at the end of January, followed by a big rally.

The bondapocalypse took a big toll on fixed income results and gold.

Tech continues to lag, value had a good one.

I do like that momentum fund. Seems to be working, holding onto gains even when things reverse.

One Year

GME +2726

BTC +440

TSLA +406

ARKK +151

Retail +100!

China +72

Weed +71

Consumer Discret +63

Vanguard MoMo +57

Tech +53

Small Caps +44

USA +35

Emerging +32

Non-US developed +25

Financials +24

Hussman +22

Value +21

60/40 +16

Energy +14

Gold +9

Junk +6

TIPS +6

REITs +5

Corp Bonds: +3

Treas +1

VXX -30

Few surprises here - same story as we saw in 2020. We'll see some very big numbers as we now comparing 1y numbers to the COVID crash lows.

That retail number tho.

The past does not matter.

It's what comin g that does

The Unkle wrote:

The past does not matter.

It's what comin g that does

correct

and corollary

we should pay attention to those who, in the past, have been able to predict the future with some accuracy.

We should hold in lower value the opinions of those who have been continuously wrong in their predictions of what has come down the pike.

agip wrote:

USA +3

China -1

Noted

Y-T-D; GoI's QQQ 12/17/2021, 318 Put up 2.17%.

Speaking of options, someone did a call spread on the $VIX for June 16 ( Bloomsday ). Bought 25,000 calls at 110 and wrote ( sold ) 25,000 calls at 150. Net cost was around $625,000; max payout at 150 on expiration date is $99,375,000 ! H/T @selling_theta

You can play along here.

agip wrote:

The Unkle wrote:

The past does not matter.

It's what comin g that does

correct

and corollary

we should pay attention to those who, in the past, have been able to predict the future with some accuracy.

We should hold in lower value the opinions of those who have been continuously wrong in their predictions of what has come down the pike.

Someone apparently has forgotten 2008-2009 and is ignoring the fact our economy is in tatters with poverty, evictions, malnutrition, drug and alcohol abuse, violent crime, closed schools, all "surging" to use an establishment buzz word.

How long can Wall Street remain above the disaster they have helped create remains to be seen.

One thing is certain, it can not do so forever.

As someone in his 60s, do you really want 60% to 70% of your liquid assets in equities which can and will drop by over 50% in the blink of an eye?

The Unkle wrote:

agip wrote:

correct

and corollary

we should pay attention to those who, in the past, have been able to predict the future with some accuracy.

We should hold in lower value the opinions of those who have been continuously wrong in their predictions of what has come down the pike.

Someone apparently has forgotten 2008-2009 and is ignoring the fact our economy is in tatters with poverty, evictions, malnutrition, drug and alcohol abuse, violent crime, closed schools, all "surging" to use an establishment buzz word.

How long can Wall Street remain above the disaster they have helped create remains to be seen.

One thing is certain, it can not do so forever.

As someone in his 60s, do you really want 60% to 70% of your liquid assets in equities which can and will drop by over 50% in the blink of an eye?

It took around 2 years for a 60/40 portfolio to recover from the then-greatest financial crisis of 70 years. Not a problem.

The economy will have its highest growth level in decades this year. No tatters.

Do I *want* to have to put 60% of my money in equities that can fall to zero? No.

But I don't really have a choice if I want to build a portfolio that will support me until death. If you have a risk-free way to make 5% over inflation, let me know. I'll do that instead, certainly.

agip wrote:

The Unkle wrote:

The past does not matter.

It's what comin g that does

correct

and corollary

we should pay attention to those who, in the past, have been able to predict the future with some accuracy.

We should hold in lower value the opinions of those who have been continuously wrong in their predictions of what has come down the pike.

?

The Unkle wrote:

The past does not matter.

The Unkle wrote:

Someone apparently has forgotten 2008-2009

?

I am still waiting on the SJW/the idiot to make his bet official?

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

the idiot from the ipad wrote:

This can be our bet for the end of 2021, your chance to win back the dignity I expect to claim at the end of December if (when) SP500 closes above 1500.

Double or nothing... If NASDAQ underperforms DJIA and SP500 between today and 31 December 2021, you get back your dignity. Otherwise, I get something else equal in value. How about you give us a year (2022) of bullish posts?

Clock starts with today’s closing values...

OK. No way will there be Bullish posts unless we hit my targets. :-)

8/24/2020