And sorry, in my rush to post before enough coffee, I've mixed terminology. Mill rates should decrease, on average, when valuations increase, if the budget remains the same (total tax revenue is total valuation x mill rate). My general point still stands, although I see I've used a confusing mess of mixed / wrong terminology.
Thx. and i understood the general point without getting bogged down in the terminology. Makes a lot of sense explained that way.
10Y up bigly. Not sure why, probably boomers though
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Not sure Conan has a strategy.
He’s a comedian. He was obviously joking.
Dr. Racket wrote:
10Y up bigly. Not sure why, probably boomers though
Boomers. It's always the boomers.
And of COURSE Bruce gets off with nothing. Boomers look out for their own.
I am not enjoying this bond crushing.
WSJ had an interesting piece on the yield curve...the behavior of TIPS suggests people believe that there will be an inflation spike for 5 years or so, and then tail off. Which is an unusual conclusion, apparently. I've been buying 1-5 year TIPS hand over fist.
Regardless, remember I sold millions of treasuries last week so this could be worse for me. Still stinks though. Although now savers can get higher rates, which should help me in the longer run.
No one votes DEMOCRAT for the stock market or the economy. You vote for Democrats if;
1. You are confused about your gender
2. You want FREE DAYCARE
3. You want FREE UNIVERSAL INCOME
4. You want your loans paid off
5. You want your minimum wage increased
6. You want condoms handed out to 2nd graders in public schools
7. You can't or won't take care of yourself
8. You want to defund the police
9. You just graduated from college and think America sucks and should be more like CUBA (They have free daycare).
wazzu1452 wrote:
No one votes DEMOCRAT for the stock market or the economy. You vote for Democrats if;
1. You are confused about your gender
2. You want FREE DAYCARE
3. You want FREE UNIVERSAL INCOME
4. You want your loans paid off
5. You want your minimum wage increased
6. You want condoms handed out to 2nd graders in public schools
7. You can't or won't take care of yourself
8. You want to defund the police
9. You just graduated from college and think America sucks and should be more like CUBA (They have free daycare).
OR you look at history and see that the economy does better under Democrats than Rs.
In fact, the last two R presidents left he economy in a shambles.
OR you care about truth
OR you aren't a seditionist
Wikipedia:
Historically, the United States economy has performed better on average under the administration of Democratic presidents than Republican presidents since World War II. The reasons for this are debated, and the observation applies to economic variables including job creation, GDP growth, and stock market returns. The unemployment rate has fallen on average under Democratic presidents, while it has risen on average under Republican presidents. Budget deficits relative to the size of the economy were lower on average for Democratic presidents.[1][2] Ten of the 11 U.S. recessions between 1953 and 2020 began under Republican presidents.[3]
Did you just quote WIKIPEIDA? Hilarious.......(pop flys out of nose)
"An individual’s likelihood of being a Democrat decreases with every additional dollar he or she earns. Democrats have a huge advantage (63 percent) with voters earning less than $15,000 per year. This advantage carries forward for individuals earning up to $50,000 per year, and then turns in the Republicans’ favor."
People vote democrat for the free crap - this is how you get their loser base to show up every four years;
"voters with household incomes of less than $50,000 in 2019 broke for Biden by 55 to 43 percent — a 12 point margin, compared to 8 four years ago. This helped overcome Trump’s gains among households with incomes above $100,000 — from 45 percent in 2016 to just over half in 2020."
wazzu1452 wrote:
Did you just quote WIKIPEIDA? Hilarious.......(pop flys out of nose)
"An individual’s likelihood of being a Democrat decreases with every additional dollar he or she earns. Democrats have a huge advantage (63 percent) with voters earning less than $15,000 per year. This advantage carries forward for individuals earning up to $50,000 per year, and then turns in the Republicans’ favor."
People vote democrat for the free crap - this is how you get their loser base to show up every four years;
"voters with household incomes of less than $50,000 in 2019 broke for Biden by 55 to 43 percent — a 12 point margin, compared to 8 four years ago. This helped overcome Trump’s gains among households with incomes above $100,000 — from 45 percent in 2016 to just over half in 2020."
https://www.timesrepublican.com/opinion/columnists/2020/11/low-income-voters-showed-up-for-biden-now-they-need-relief/
mocking wikipedia instead of the data is a garbage defense and you know it.
But anyway, you are behind the times. The GOP is no longer the party for rich people. Try to keep up.
“We are a working class party now. That’s the future.” - Josh "Sedition is my middle name" Hawley
“I believe Trump made our party a working class party, and that is something we have to continue. We can’t go back to being the country club rich party.” - GOP Chairman Mackowiac from TX somewhere
butt fumble wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Not sure Conan has a strategy.
He’s a comedian. He was obviously joking.
Too bad for him, up another 33% today.?
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
butt fumble wrote:
He’s a comedian. He was obviously joking.
Too bad for him, up another 33% today.?
I think there will a lot of momentum trades now. I keep buying VFMO, albeit in small numbers.
Note that the SP500 is 78% above the 3/23/20 lows. Astonishing. With dividends an 80% return.
You'd think the biggest honking stock index wouldn't do this. So much money sloshing around the globe. Truly a time of prosperity.
Yes, with 20 million unemployed or underemployed in the United States. I suppose this time of prosperity needs another $1.9 Trillion to make it even more prosperous. ??
VIX is weirdly low, just 23.
Which suggests complacency despite the current volatility.
Weird. I'd expect more people to be frightened by big moves.
I'd usually think that a low vix and high volatility would mean stock prices will fall short term.
We'll see. Who knows.
Or maybe really there isn't much volatility. Just seems that we've had some bigger than usual swings here. And bonds are cratering, so there suddenly is an alternative to stocks, with bonds now yielding more than they used to.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Yes, with 20 million unemployed or underemployed in the United States. I suppose this time of prosperity needs another $1.9 Trillion to make it even more prosperous. ??
heh
makes as much sense as anything I suppose
This bond blowup could be serious. LT US debt is down 18% or so.
It might suggest that the world is saying 'ah hold one one second podner, we really aren't sure borrowing another $2 trillion is a great idea' esp when you aren't at all serious about tax collection.
If the US doesn't have unlimited borrowing capacity at zero real rates, then the nation will have a serious problem. Refinancing US debts will become more and more expensive at higher interest rates. Snowball.
agip wrote:
wazzu1452 wrote:
Did you just quote WIKIPEIDA? Hilarious.......(pop flys out of nose)
"An individual’s likelihood of being a Democrat decreases with every additional dollar he or she earns. Democrats have a huge advantage (63 percent) with voters earning less than $15,000 per year. This advantage carries forward for individuals earning up to $50,000 per year, and then turns in the Republicans’ favor."
People vote democrat for the free crap - this is how you get their loser base to show up every four years;
"voters with household incomes of less than $50,000 in 2019 broke for Biden by 55 to 43 percent — a 12 point margin, compared to 8 four years ago. This helped overcome Trump’s gains among households with incomes above $100,000 — from 45 percent in 2016 to just over half in 2020."
https://www.timesrepublican.com/opinion/columnists/2020/11/low-income-voters-showed-up-for-biden-now-they-need-relief/mocking wikipedia instead of the data is a garbage defense and you know it.
No no no - I'm sure "timesrepublican.com" is a highly reputable source.
agip wrote:
Dr. Racket wrote:
10Y up bigly. Not sure why, probably boomers though
Boomers. It's always the boomers.
And of COURSE Bruce gets off with nothing. Boomers look out for their own.
Seriously though *shakes fist*
agip wrote:
VIX is weirdly low, just 23.
Which suggests complacency despite the current volatility.
Weird. I'd expect more people to be frightened by big moves.
I'd usually think that a low vix and high volatility would mean stock prices will fall short term.
We'll see. Who knows.
Or maybe really there isn't much volatility. Just seems that we've had some bigger than usual swings here. And bonds are cratering, so there suddenly is an alternative to stocks, with bonds now yielding more than they used to.
In all seriousness though - rates aren't even that high. 10Y T yields were like +3% before the pandemic and stocks were flying back then as well.
As for VIX - let's just remember that this is what happens now. 2020 saw like multiple 5% sell-offs just because, only to immediately regain. Random volatility like that is just how it is now
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
butt fumble wrote:
He’s a comedian. He was obviously joking.
Too bad for him, up another 33% today.?
Too bad for you, too.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
https://thebearcave.substack.com/p/special-edition-will-ark-invest-blow
Interesting article - not really sure what to make of it. She seems to have hitched her wagon to a couple very large bets (in this case, I kinda think she'll be right once again). We shall see......