Down goes the Dow

well bottom line, I don't see a problem with buybacks. Certainly if they are out of cash, then it is returning cash to the shareholders rather than just letting it sit on the balance sheet - what could be wrong with that?

if a company is borrowing to make buybacks, it is certainly less good. it doesn't smell good. and certainly C-level execs who hold a lot of shares have an incentive to authorize buybacks even if it is not in the long term best interest of the company. So that's not good. But really...borrowing money at 4% to buy shares...it's not crazy if a company wants to pay less cash out in dividends and perhaps have fewer shareholders. that combined with the tax deductibility of the interest payments...it's a pretty good deal.

I just don't see the crisis.

(that is one point not brought up - that dividends are double taxed while share buybacks are not)

"Mergers and acquisitions as well as stock buybacks are all late cycle activity. Why, well the insiders are selling their stock at high prices, and are using high stock prices as currency... On the other hand, companies go private when their stock is very cheap and few people have interest."

EXACTLY.

The other factor at play here is, as agip suggests, tax structure, which is of paramount importance.

Yes I still watch this thread. Ghost's post, combined with agip's tax suggestion, is the only thing recently posted that has come close to the mark...the mark being that we are now looking for short-term, in-and-out, one-shot-deal strategies because they are secure, and because we have little faith in sustained future gains.

There is still money to be made "flipping" in the market. I myself have been in-and-out, but not all-in.

The 800-lb gorilla in the room is margin. MARGIN.

Peace.

I KNEW you were lying!

Maserati wrote:

... we are now looking for short-term, in-and-out, one-shot-deal strategies because they are secure, and because we have little faith in sustained future gains.

Who's "we"?

Welcome back mas, I knew you never left.

I was thinking about your comments from long ago about your lack of trust in the security of, I will say, "so-called tax advantaged accounts", and that they will be the first, and easiest, for the government to find and take, since they know all about them, and you.

I hadn't realized it, but SS distributions weren't always taxable, it only happened in 1983 after having been recommended by the 1979 Advisory Council.

http://www.ssa.gov/history/taxationofbenefits.html

A big thanks for making me think about this. I have just decided to forego a Roth IRA in favor of a taxable account. I just don't have any faith that current tax levels will prevail for 2-3 decades like I would need them to.

Sounds like you've got your IRAs mixed up. If taxes go up, the Roth is the better deal.

Maserati wrote:

Ghost's post, combined with agip's tax suggestion, is the only thing recently posted that has come close to the mark...the mark being that we are now looking for short-term, in-and-out, one-shot-deal strategies because they are secure, and because we have little faith in sustained future gains.

That's exactly why people like you can't make much money. Do you really think people like Flagpole and me, who have been long EVERYTHING (except gold for FP) for years now, should sell everything?

Everybody form Ben Graham to Warren Buffett to Peter Lynch know that you CANNOT outpredict the market. All you can do is try to buy cheap, figure out which way the market wants to go, and hang on for the ride. You do NOT make much money with short term thinking.

The Japanese are coming!! The Japanese are coming!! (again)

Not if those taxes are on Roth accounts. You missed the whole point of my post.

I saw your point as traditional IRAs being better than Roths, if you believe tax rates will rise. Is that not what you wrote?

Roth investments are pre-tax. Withdrawals are tax free. If you expect tax rates to rise, you want to be in a Roth.

No, I was discussing the possibility of the gov coming after Roth assets in the future, like they did with SS. I have no faith that distributions will be tax-free by the time I retire. The GAO has already studied these accounts, and preparations are underway. Like SS there will likely be limits on how much can be taxed, initially...but I really don't want to deal with surprises like that.

http://www.csmonitor.com/Business/Tax-VOX/2014/1014/Mitt-Romney-s-retirement-in-jeopardy-IRS-looks-to-regulate-supersize-IRAs

Actually it was maserati who first got me thinking about this, then I went to a Morningstar thread where people compare taxable vs deferred accounts, and deductible vs non-deductible contributions. I found it all very informative. In my 15% AGI bracket I am right now at 0% for long-term CG and qualified dividends, and it doesn't (and for me, won't) get any better than that, ever.

YMMV

"you CANNOT outpredict the market. All you can do is try to buy cheap, figure out which way the market wants to go"

LMAO, contradict yourself much?

hey coach douche, anybody who chooses to be in the market is effectively predicting that it will rise between the time they enter, and the time they exit

.............................. wrote:

hey coach douche, anybody who chooses to be in the market is effectively predicting that it will rise between the time they enter, and the time they exit

Congratulations - you just made coach d look brilliant by comparison.

Quite an achievement!

Just bought $30k of VFINX @192.12, will sell before the day is out. FOMC comnig

Here goes... wrote:

Just bought $30k of VFINX @192.12, will sell before the day is out. FOMC comnig

It doesn't work that way - you can't buy and sell VFINX the same day. You can't even buy it midday.

You mean you put in an order to buy it at the close of 3/18?

No, bought it last night at yesterday's close

Here goes... wrote:

No, bought it last night at yesterday's close

ok good deal

nice trade

We will see, looks ok so far

No matter what happens, I will sell it and put all the proceeds into a large cap euro fund