Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Clearly you are incorrect just using the the 1995-2009 period. Here is the intermediate period. Remember “in excess of Treasury Bills.”
https://www.hussmanfunds.com/wp-content/uploads/comment/mc190906m.png
1959-1982
1/1/1959: 55.62
12/31/1982: 140.78
1995-2009
1/1/1995: 465.25
12/31/2009: 1,127.64
Try 6/1995 thru 3/2009, then use in excess of Treasury Bills. You will see you are wrong.
Moving the goalposts.
You just want to argue. Here is his piece, bring it up with Hussman. A reasonable person would realize highs and lows in markets don’t start and end in calendar years.
I posted facts. You are the one arguing with them.
SNow about 40% NW allocation to Crypto.
Damn, son! YOLO indeed! :-)
I wish you luck. I suspect this will be a valuable (not in a wealth-giving way) life lesson for you, but hell if you're going to bet it all on 00, do it when you're young!
VS-SJW-IR-TS idiot wrote:
SNow about 40% NW allocation to Crypto.
Damn, son! YOLO indeed! :-)
I wish you luck. I suspect this will be a valuable (not in a wealth-giving way) life lesson for you, but hell if you're going to bet it all on 00, do it when you're young!
Yeahhhhh buddy.
I think BTC (mostly in btc) would have to go down to like $16k for me to actually start losing money on it.
Do you think it would seriously crash that much, given a market cap of $1 trillion and many large companies in now?
I don't seriously think it will.
https://twitter.com/hussmanjp/status/1363890149441089541Fact checker wrote:
Moving the goalposts.
"ensured"
Igy you think he's maybe just a little arrogant?
Swaglord_the_real_one_1_one_1 wrote:
VS-SJW-IR-TS idiot wrote:
Damn, son! YOLO indeed! :-)
I wish you luck. I suspect this will be a valuable (not in a wealth-giving way) life lesson for you, but hell if you're going to bet it all on 00, do it when you're young!
Yeahhhhh buddy.
I think BTC (mostly in btc) would have to go down to like $16k for me to actually start losing money on it.
Do you think it would seriously crash that much, given a market cap of $1 trillion and many large companies in now?
I don't seriously think it will.
do you know how many times BTC has crashed 50%? I don't either, but many.
And everyone knows that someday very soon some AI will break some security code and steal billions of bitcoin. That's going to hurt a lot.
Swaglord_the_real_one_1_one_1 wrote:Do you think it would seriously crash that much, given a market cap of $1 trillion and many large companies in now?
I don't seriously think it will.
Well, I think it could, but as my screen name says, I am an idiot, so don't take my word for anything.
I honestly think bitcoin will either tank bigly, or skyrocket, or maybe both, over the next year or two. The only think I am highly confident of is that is price will not be in the $52-54k range very often or very long...
agip wrote:
"ensured"
Igy you think he's maybe just a little arrogant?
Perhaps true. I thought it was pretty funny.
I would tend to feel Bitcoin is the Pets.com of this era. Strange concept, where millions have invested, where they see value in nothing. Truly odd, even if you discount the wasted electricity. It is if somewhat created the biggest Ponzi ever, just to see how many fools there are.
agip wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
No, makes a strong case that valuations matter.
agreed with Igy here, that if that stat is true (and it's probably not true - I suspect it is skewed for a very significant reason like not counting dividends or only looking at big caps) then it's not at all an argument for buy and hold, for individual investors. Individuals have short time horizons. 20 years for example. If you retire at 65 and lose money in the stock market for 20 years until you die, that's a total disaster for buy and hold.
But that's why we diversify with gold, bonds, foreign stocks, etc. A diversified 60/40 portfolio rarely if ever has extended losing periods.
In no way was I advocating for a portfolio invested solely in stocks. Hussman referred to the S&P, so that was lens I was using for my reply.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
I would tend to feel Bitcoin is the Pets.com of this era. Strange concept, where millions have invested, where they see value in nothing. Truly odd, even if you discount the wasted electricity. It is if somewhat created the biggest Ponzi ever, just to see how many fools there are.
it's gathered a trilion dollars..at what point do we accept it as a new asset class?
although if it has another 50% drop then it would be just a 500 million something or other.
I can see the need for a store of value outside fiat currency, as debts rise and countries decide to become much more difficult to govern well.
Does anyone believe Amazon will breakout soon?. I've only seen it move sideways.
Almost all analysist rate it as a strong buy. It's been in the 3100-3300 range for 6 months.
agip wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
I would tend to feel Bitcoin is the Pets.com of this era. Strange concept, where millions have invested, where they see value in nothing. Truly odd, even if you discount the wasted electricity. It is if somewhat created the biggest Ponzi ever, just to see how many fools there are.
it's gathered a trilion dollars..at what point do we accept it as a new asset class?
although if it has another 50% drop then it would be just a 500 million something or other.
I can see the need for a store of value outside fiat currency, as debts rise and countries decide to become much more difficult to govern well.
I hear that, and suppose that is the rationale. I would still rather have $50k in Krugerrands than 1 Bitcoin.
agip wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
I would tend to feel Bitcoin is the Pets.com of this era. Strange concept, where millions have invested, where they see value in nothing. Truly odd, even if you discount the wasted electricity. It is if somewhat created the biggest Ponzi ever, just to see how many fools there are.
it's gathered a trilion dollars..at what point do we accept it as a new asset class?
although if it has another 50% drop then it would be just a 500 million something or other.
I can see the need for a store of value outside fiat currency, as debts rise and countries decide to become much more difficult to govern well.
There is also this, which goes back to my theory: “After tweets from Tesla CEO Elon Musk and rapper Snoop Dogg, the cryptocurrency dogecoin, which started as a joke, topped $10 billion in market value. WSJ looks at why online investors are pouring money into the meme-inspired virtual currency. “
Hussman HSGFX slams NASDAQ today up 0.61% versus down -2.46%, and YTD 7.61% to 5%. ?
agip wrote:
"ensured"
Igy you think he's maybe just a little arrogant?
Hussman, Trump, and Igy all share a high level of arrogance. It has a lot to do with their numerous missteps.
