Kenenisa Bekele: how soon will he totally annihilate the distance WR's?

Exactly right...runners don't improve times in a linear way. One year they drop 5 seconds, the next they drop 1, the next they are slower, etc....which is why attempting to predict a progression of times is an exercise in folly. My point is that you predict Bekele will have run 26:03.5 by 2008. You also predict that he will scare the 26:00 barrier in 2005/2006. Then you predict that he will break the 26:00 barrier. My question to you, is when does this occur in the context of your predictions? You have him scaring the 26:00 barrier in the next two years (the 26:03.5), not improving for two years(because according to your predictions, 26:03.5 will be his pr in 2008), then improving, presumably in 2009 or later to break 26:00. How can you predict an improvement curve, which you admit, is non-linear and bereft with uncertainty?

I believe Hicham would run more sub 12:30s than Bekele does.

Sevatonic is here!

Do you realize that sub 12:30 for the 5000m is sub 4 minute mile pace for 12 1/2 laps, not saying that Hicham or Kenenisa can't do it. The thing I disagree with you on is your saying Hicham will possibly do it more than Kenenisa-if either of them do it, it won't be multiple times. The condition for a man in our generation with the talent of Kenenisa and Hicham would have to be near flawless. If its to be done in our lifetime to achieve that time and the probability of them doing it more than once is extremely remote-even for two superman such as Hicham and Kenenisa!

VIPAM

A sub 12:30 may not be achieved for some time people that would be the greatest track and field record of all. That time would be better than the marathon incredible record, Michael Johnson 19:32 200m, and Sergey\'s long stand PV. Get a grip people and let Kenny B. go under 12:35 and Hicham under 12:40, wait 12:45 before we start talking sub 12:30. The Ethiopia is by far the one most capable of doing it but he still may not ever go sub 12:30.

I think that there are 4 with a shot, those being kipchoge, bekele, bekele's bro (in a few years), and el g. however, the only two realistic chances in my opinion are kipchoge and bekele.

4x3200 wrote:

I think that there are 4 with a shot, those being kipchoge, bekele, bekele's bro (in a few years), and el g. however, the only two realistic chances in my opinion are kipchoge and bekele.

Only ones with a "realistic chance" and you do not mention El Guerrouj? Are you Vipam posting under a different name?

I will do my best, in June or July when El Guerrouj shatters the current 5,000 meter world record, to pull this thread back from wherever it is and supply a resounding "Told you so." Astonishing that posters can undervalue a 3:26 1500 runner. Wow.

the reason I didn't give El G a shot was because I don't believe the record will be broken until Kipchoge and Bekele reach their primes in a few years, by which time El G probably won't be in contention.

if there's one person i would LIKE to see break it, its El G, he is by far my favorite runner and i'd love for him to break it.

3:26 is nothing, seriously how do you get so high on yourself about that one time he ran?

duh!!! wrote:

3:26 is nothing, seriously how do you get so high on yourself about that one time he ran?

Are you drunk, perhaps? Smoking a banned stimulant or ingesting some brand of hallucinogen? Otherwise, I fear for your sanity and your claim to powers of reasoning. El Guerrouj has run 5 times under 3:27, and only one other man has ever done it once (Lagat; 3:26.34, El Guerrouj; 3:26.00, 3:26.12, 3:26.45, 3:26.89, and 3:26.96). He has run more times under 3:28, 3:29, and 3:30 than I care to look up at the moment, including a 3:27.65 1500 in the 1999 World Championships crossing the line blowing kisses to the crowd and dancing, recovered within 5 seconds. It seems you need to watch a bit more track, or I have missed some poor display of attempted sarcasm by yourself, to claim that El Guerrouj only ran "that one time" of note. Sure, as well as nearly 100 others, 4 world titles, 2 Olympic golds and an Olympic silver, and countless Golden League jackpots and Athlete of the Year awards, as well as other spectacular world records and times (4:44.79, 7:23.09, 12:50.24, 3:43.13). And on and on.

If you missed all that, do some research and return at the least with an INFORMED opinion. Otherwise, you open to question your sobriety.

Morrocan (did you know that Morocco has 1 r & 2 c's)

I should know my father was from Casablanca and no; whomever, you disagreed with in that post is not Vipam. I would have thought El Guerrouj was capable of that feat had he switch to the 5000m 3-4 years ago but time is running out. Hicham has the ability but ability with the PREPARATION/TRAINING to do what noone has ever done before doesn't always get the task (WR) accomplished. In that post someone said there were 4 individuals who could possibly run sub 12:30 but I disagree with them also, IN MY OPINION I think there are 3 men today we know about who could have:

1.) Hicham El Guerrouj-waited too long to move up. His our updated verison of Said Aoutia but he didn't adventure to as many events as Said.

2.) Augustine Choge-great talent but will he be another Daniel Komen? Augustine is capable of being the topping any times Eliud does in 1-3 years if he gets the right support.

3.) Kenenisa Bekele-mostly likely but will take the perfect conditions, years more of training, and still I wouldn't bank on him 100%. The rabbit would need to take him beyond 3000m in 7:29.99 pace and he would still need to hang on to that-how many rabbits can do that? The athlete and the rabbit would both have to near flawless performances in the right conditions. The man who runs sub 12:30 will have to be able to run sub 7:20 for 3000m and sub 26:10 for 10000m. The likelyhood of a 1500m specialist moving up to do it first isn't very favorable.

After thought on the magnitude of that time I don't know if we will see a sub 12:30 (even despite there are a couple of athletes having the potential too do it) thats mindboggling!!!

VIPAM

Oh my gosh! Vipam taking me to task for my spelling!

Why am I not surprised that of the list of 3 you created, 2 of the 3 were crossed out illogically (including the double Olympic champion with 3:26 speed and a 12:50 in his only 5K for time; I am afraid even Bekele did not debut that fast at 5,000), Bekele is the only one who can do it in your eyes?

Do you think you will ever realize that your hero worship of Bekele-- to the extent that no matter what another athlete does, you will always think he is the best--is remarkably apparent to everyone else?

As I said before, when El Guerrouj breaks the WR, I'll push this to the top and we'll talk about how fantastic Bekele is then. And the fact that you think Bekele would be the first to average 12.5 sub-60 sec. laps should shed further light on your lack of credibility. Firstly, that is absurd. Second, if anyone EVER ran that fast, picking from a pool of a guy who averaged 54.92 per lap[ for 3.75 laps and a guy who is a pure distance runner and could not, according to Renato, break 50 for 400, I and most with reason would go with the 1500 WR holder.

Race a 1500,

Why this much animosity toward vipam? You sound to me you are angry at the person and don't have substance to the subject. Another thing, you also seemed to be novice to this web site too. We have discussed, analyzed, resurrect old topics and discussed them as the occasision seemed to be fit.

As to Bekele, he has been breaking world records, setting new standards and captureing new titles since the beginning of this thread. Three years ago, I was also novice to this website, but I was closely following the progress of Bekele and his amazing ascendency to capturing the most cherished records in 5k/10K. In two years, Bekele became the darling of CrossCountry/Track/indoor/outdoor, by winning in record time. Granted he didn't win World/Olympics 5ks. But can anyone be comapred to Bekele's achievements of the past two years. Actually, you owe appology to Vipam and you are asked to show class by steping out and appologize to Vipam

Merry Christmas!

T&F

I appreciate your post on my behalf. Morrocan just as its your opinion that El Guerrouj will be the first man to run sub 12:30 for 5000m its my opinion (if you read closely) I feel the possibility of any of them doing it is remote-including Kenenisa Bekele. I do think Kenenisa, Augustine, and Hicham are three athletes who have the talent but talent alone doesn't break world records that are so far ahead of the current physical/psychological barriers.

How many man have even run sub 8 minutes for 2 miles and now we're talking about tacking on another 800m meters at the same pace. When one of them run 12:33.5 then I will be forced to reconsider but the 5000m record in my opinion will not drop as far and as fast as the 10000m in the next few years.

VIPAM

correction

another 1800 meters at the same pace...

VIPAM

I don't know why noone have come out and just said Kenny B. will soon become the best runner to ever step on any track or x-country ever, point blank.

Kenny's brother will wipe out all his records. The kid's like 16 and has already scalped Tergat.

Kenenisa's brother is Tariku and he's 17 yrs old and wasn't nearly the best 17 year on the circuit. In fact on a discussion concerning the two Augustine Choge beat Tariku Bekele 4 out of the 5 meetings in 2004. The personal best of Tariku is a considerable 14.96 slower than Augustine in the 5000m for 2004. Other 17 years better than Tariku at this point:

Abdelati Iguider (Mar)......3:35.54 2004 World Jr Champ

Benson Marrianyi Esho (Ken).3:35.80 2004 Silver World Jr

along with those two Augustine also had multi times under 3:38.00.

Moses Ndiema Masai (Ken) 27:07.29 NJR

Augustine Choge went on to win more than one GP race and posted personal best of 3000m-7:36.82 and 12:57.01 to Tariku's 13:11.97. I think Tariku is a great talent but he doesn't deserve to even be mentioned in the same breath as Augustine AT THIS TIME.

.....

Just wondering am I the only one who think the sub 12:30 barrier MAY be out of reach for Kenenisa and especially Hicham. I'm particularly interested to see what kind of times Kenenisa will run in the 1500m in 2005.

VIPAM

Apologize? For what exactly? For noticing Vipam's illogical, unhealthy infatuation with Bekele? I am no novice to the site. Read the first index page for a thread entitled "Can Augustine Choge defeat the might Ethiopians and the Emperor Bekele?" or some nonsense along those lines.

The "mighty" Ethiopians? "Emperor" Bekele? What the heck is that? They are great distance runners, the best in the world for sure. No one denies it. But really, the level of his obsession with them is absurd, as well as the fact that he donwgrades others like Shaheen, Kipchoge, and El Guerrouj, all of whom have beaten or could beat Bekele in major championships.

By the way, as Vipam enjoys correcting others spelling, I'll correct his math. Sub 8 minutes for the 2 mile is of course 3:59-point mile pace. 12:30 for 5,000 is 60 per 400, or 4:01.4 per mile. Bekele's current WR pace is 4:03.77 per mile, or 60.558 per 400. Sub-4 minute pace would be 12:25.63 or faster.

No animosity towards any person, as I know no poster here. ONly animosity for their stated emotions, which border on the fanatical, and if you want examples, read just about any thread started by Vipam in the last 2 years in which he mentions the Ethiopians. His enthusiasm for the sport is certainly a positive; his obsession with one athlete or a group of athletes is not.

Race a 1500

Take a rest with your nonsense my friend, my post are no different from VAST NUMBER of articles or commentary you'll find about top athletes all over the world. In describing athletics its routine to add descriptive terms whether its in regards to the athlete or performance.

The statement of me downgrading Shaheen, El Guerrouj, and Kipchoge is ridiculous. I may have said that Kenenisa would beat them or something to that nature, but just becaue I don't think their better athletes than Kenenisa doesn't mean I'm downgrading them. In fact those 4 are definitely in the top 5 distance runners competing in any event today.

DON'T tell me you haven't run across articles announcing Kenenisa Bekele as the new Emperor or calling the Ethiopians, Kenyans, and sometimes even the female Japanese marathons mighty?

So I assume you think Hicham will not only break the 5000m WR but run sub 12:30 before he retires in 2006?

VIPAM