D1 Women’s XC Championship Simulation Countdown

Division I.Cross.Country wrote:

I already shared what Hartman should be thinking of running:

Hartman 15:15 -> 19:00
Napoleon 15:19 -> 19:05
Gapes 15:32 -> 19:20
Michalak 15:32 -> 19:20
Englehardt 15:48 -> 19:40

Are those times unreasonable? Answer the question whether the GansCreek/Pre-Nats course is at least 10sec faster than that somewhat muddy ACC course. If so, subtract (at least) 10sec from the ACC times:

Napoleon 19:13 -> 19:03.
Gapes 19:24 -> 19:14
Michalak 19:35 -> 19:25
Englehardt 19:45 -> 19:35

Division I.Cross.Country wrote:

I think Hartman, as the leader, needs to get them out, even if she fades and it costs her a few places; the back end can then more than makes it up; burn out the BYU back-end depth and the Oregon milers.

Who downvoted this? Why in the world does it make sense for Hartman to leave anything out there, while letting the BYU depth stay in it, while the Oregon milers lick their chops waiting to pounce in the final 2k?

Division I.Cross.Country wrote:

Division I.Cross.Country wrote:

I already shared what Hartman should be thinking of running:

Hartman 15:15 -> 19:00
Napoleon 15:19 -> 19:05
Gapes 15:32 -> 19:20
Michalak 15:32 -> 19:20
Englehardt 15:48 -> 19:40

Are those times unreasonable? Answer the question whether the GansCreek/Pre-Nats course is at least 10sec faster than that somewhat muddy ACC course. If so, subtract (at least) 10sec from the ACC times:

Napoleon 19:13 -> 19:03.
Gapes 19:24 -> 19:14
Michalak 19:35 -> 19:25
Englehardt 19:45 -> 19:35

Right now they say decent chance for rain Thursday and Friday 11/20-21 so course could be a little soft.

mictlantecuhtli wrote:

LetsRunSpecial wrote:

She increased her TiC by 19 seconds in two weeks. The Nationals is three weeks after the Big12, so another improvement of 27 seconds is on the table. I expect 17:52 from Jane. She will be ahead of the entire field by at least 35 seconds.

alright man im a jane fan but this excessive even for me

Be brave. It’s a new world order, you just have to embrace it.

Division I.Cross.Country wrote:

I think Hartman, as the leader, needs to get them out, even if she fades and it costs her a few places; the back end can then more than makes it up; burn out the BYU back-end depth and the Oregon milers.

Nevermind, this is a foolish idea. NC State would be more formidable if Hartman ran a smart race and ended up their lowest stick. Not sure why I thought it would be better for her to push Gapes and Napoleon hard if they’ll just fade.

Division l.Cross.Country wrote:

Division I.Cross.Country wrote:

I think Hartman, as the leader, needs to get them out, even if she fades and it costs her a few places; the back end can then more than makes it up; burn out the BYU back-end depth and the Oregon milers.

Nevermind, this is a foolish idea. NC State would be more formidable if Hartman ran a smart race and ended up their lowest stick. Not sure why I thought it would be better for her to push Gapes and Napoleon hard if they’ll just fade.

In a perfect race Hartman Napoleon Gapes would finish at 8/9/10, Michalak/Engelhardt at 25/30, Rauber/Putman/Templier at 45/50/55. Of course Jane Hendengren will finish sub 18, but that’s irrelevant.

Someone on another thread suggests Hartman is out for the season.

If we
(1) remove Hartman;
(2) use Oregon’s best TiC’s from either the Bill Dellinger Invite or the BigTEN;
(3) use NC State’s TiC’s from ACC’s gives:

Cherotich 15:14…….. Napoleon 15:24 (+4)
Cherubet 15:32..…….Gapes 15:32 (-0)
Ayyildiz 15:39…………Michalak 15:41 (+3)
Frias 15:46……..……. Englehardt 15:49 (+6)
Barnett 15:57…………Rauber 15:53 (-4)

Oregon under NC State under by 9pnts.

DivisionICrossCountry wrote:

Division I Cross.Country wrote:

Edit, my mistake, Gapes was awarded a 15:36 and Michalak a 15:31 at Nutty. I’ll leave it to the reader to see the effects of that correction.

Someone on another thread suggests Hartman is out for the season.

If we
(1) remove Hartman;
(2) use Oregon’s best TiC’s from either the Bill Dellinger Invite or the BigTEN;
(3) use NC State’s TiC’s from ACC’s gives:

Cherotich 15:14…….. Napoleon 15:24 (+4)
Cherubet 15:32..…….Gapes 15:32 (-0)
Ayyildiz 15:39…………Michalak 15:41 (+3)
Frias 15:46……..……. Englehardt 15:49 (+6)
Barnett 15:57…………Rauber 15:53 (-4)

Oregon under NC State under by 9pnts.

However, if we:
(1) remove Hartman;
(2) use Oregon’s best TiC’s from either the Bill Dellinger Invite or the BigTEN;
(3) use NC State’s best TiC’s from either Nuttycombe or ACC’s gives:

Cherotich 15:14…….. Napoleon 15:19 (+2)
Cherubet 15:32..…….Gapes 15:32 (-0)
Ayyildiz 15:39…………Michalak 15:31 (-11)
Frias 15:46……..……. Englehardt 15:48 (+5)
Barnett 15:57…………Rauber 15:53 (-4)

NC State under Oregon by 8pnts.

I haven’t looked at all of the newly published LACCTiC data, but I did notice LACCTiC went back and retroactively changed Jane’s TiC previously awarded at the Big12, from 14:42 to 14:39. How many races into the future does that potentially happen?

As I’ve said after the 14:42 TiC award, I thought it was probably a wee bit too generous, because it was based upon Naukot being in the race, and I think Naukot’s rating is probably a bit inflated because her track 10000m was awarded a TiC that exceeds the 5000m equivalent.

DividionICrossCountry wrote:

I haven’t looked at all of the newly published LACCTiC data, but I did notice LACCTiC went back and retroactively changed Jane’s TiC previously awarded at the Big12, from 14:42 to 14:39. How many races into the future does that potentially happen?

As I’ve said after the 14:42 TiC award, I thought it was probably a wee bit too generous, because it was based upon Naukot being in the race, and I think Naukot’s rating is probably a bit inflated because her track 10000m was awarded a TiC that exceeds the 5000m equivalent.

Responding here too:

The algorithm for the season is re-run every time I add more results. Ratings can back-adjust by a few seconds but previous seasons are set-in stone. This is to allow for early races to correct as we get more data, since their original ratings will be mostly based on track PRs and last season.

For what it’s worth, a lot of people were saying the algorithm was too generous when it gave Parker Valby a 14:52. I believe she ran exactly 14:52 that season.

I agree the 10k adjustments are too generous, likely because a lot of 10k PBs are from slower conference races. The 10k results are not used in assigning TiCs and race adjustments -- I use a different hidden rating to adjust the TiCs than the ability rating shown on the website (which weights everything equally and prefers 5k or 10k track results). Either way, one person's rating will not affect a TiC that much — the course’s adjustment is calculated from the entire field.

Notre Dame is so quietly consistent and deep. They have been taken lightly by the pundits all year and I think will surprise people at nationals particularly if not all teams are firing on all cylinders. Definitely in the mix for a podium spot.

(1) “The 10k results are not used in assigning TiCs and race adjustments”

But are they not, in some cases, like Naukot’s, used in assigning Ratings? And then, don’t Ratings factor into assigning TiC’s?

(2) But then, I think you answer those presumed questions with:

“I use a different hidden rating to adjust the TiCs than the ability rating shown on the website.”

(3) Your answer above conveys the behind-the-scenes “black box” manipulation that leaves us with a longing to tweak the ratings ourselves, to perform “what if” scenarios, like the ones I previously shared, for example, manually comparing ‘NC State without Hartman’ to Oregon. (For example, a next step would be to drop the TiC of an injured Hartman to see what minimum she has to run to still get NC State on top.)

(4) The Parker Valby situation is not related to the generous 10000m TiC’s, since Valby had not run a 10000m race, prior to her sub15 rating. I think it’s understandable that when her sub15 rating first appeared, it was mixed with shock and some disbelief.

Thank you for taking the time to respond. LACCTiC is obviously the best thing out there for this type of collegiate crosscountry comparison. You rock.

Airport lounge 2 wrote:

Notre Dame is so quietly consistent and deep. They have been taken lightly by the pundits all year and I think will surprise people at nationals particularly if not all teams are firing on all cylinders. Definitely in the mix for a podium spot.

I don’t necessarily think we are taking Notre Dame lightly, since you have helped in highlighting them. Bonner-Dalton’s performance at Conference was interesting, to say the least; she has leveled up bigly this year. Admittedly, I haven’t looked beyond the podium with significant interest, but I see LACCTiC is now slotting ND in 5th, ahead of Florida.

What do you think needs to happen for ND to pull a podium upset?

Airport lounge 2 wrote:

Notre Dame is so quietly consistent and deep. They have been taken lightly by the pundits all year and I think will surprise people at nationals particularly if not all teams are firing on all cylinders. Definitely in the mix for a podium spot.

I like Notre Dame but they are clean that 2nd tier right after BYU, Oregon, and NC State. Even though NC State appears to have lost Hartman for the season, they’re still in the top 3, at 3rd. BYU & Oregon will both beat them.

I’m hoping Stanford can contend for the 4th spot. Love that Bunnage is back for the Cardinal.

DividionICrossCountry wrote:

. Bonner-Dalton’s performance at Conference was interesting, to say the least; she has leveled up bigly this year.

Her Nutty performance, slotted between Longisa and Kirwa, was also very very good, possibly overshadowed by Napoleon, but nipping Hartman and Jelelgo at Conference near the tape was hard to ignore. Feel free to share any interesting background info on MBD’s development.

A man with no .name wrote:

Even though NC State appears to have lost Hartman for the season, they’re still in the top three.

I’ve not seen any solid confirmation Hartman is out of Natty’s; maybe Gault will get some info out of Henes, or maybe someone will post her on the greenway.

Maybe the prudent thing to do was to just have her stay home and rest up, and even get some PT, if necessary. If she lines up at Natty’s and finishes ahead of their current 5th, NC State can still win it.

A man with no .name wrote:

Airport lounge 2 wrote:

Notre Dame is so quietly consistent and deep. They have been taken lightly by the pundits all year and I think will surprise people at nationals particularly if not all teams are firing on all cylinders. Definitely in the mix for a podium spot.

I like Notre Dame but they are clean that 2nd tier right after BYU, Oregon, and NC State. Even though NC State appears to have lost Hartman for the season, they’re still in the top 3, at 3rd. BYU & Oregon will both beat them.

I’m hoping Stanford can contend for the 4th spot. Love that Bunnage is back for the Cardinal.

are clearly in *

DividionICrossCountry wrote:

A man with no .name wrote:

Even though NC State appears to have lost Hartman for the season, they’re still in the top three.

I’ve not seen any solid confirmation Hartman is out of Natty’s; maybe Gault will get some info out of Henes, or maybe someone will post her on the greenway.

Maybe the prudent thing to do was to just have her stay home and rest up, and even get some PT, if necessary. If she lines up at Natty’s and finishes ahead of their current 5th, NC State can still win it.

I heard that her foot is pretty messed up.

DividionICrossCountry wrote:

A man with no .name wrote:

Even though NC State appears to have lost Hartman for the season, they’re still in the top three.

I’ve not seen any solid confirmation Hartman is out of Natty’s; maybe Gault will get some info out of Henes, or maybe someone will post her on the greenway.

Maybe the prudent thing to do was to just have her stay home and rest up, and even get some PT, if necessary. If she lines up at Natty’s and finishes ahead of their current 5th, NC State can still win it.

The only Hartman info is the rumor spread here.

I'm assuming that both Hartman and Engelhardt return for nats and team will be: Hartman, Gapes, Michalak, Napoleon, Engelhardt, Rauber, Templier.

BYU also rested some runners. This is not some new or unexpected tactic.