Franklin got destroyed by the ~7th best team in SW rn. If they are in serious contention for an NXN bid the northwest should be embarrassed for themselves, thankfully they aren’t.
I don't think Boise is quite good enough to be in this conversation given their losses to RM, Star Valley, and others.
I should correct myself because I don't mean to be harsh:
Given Boise's head to head matchup losses, I don't think they're a particular threat in the NW for a podium spot. Even Rocky Mountain is a little dubious until you remember that Bob Conley is a slowish course at 4000+ feet.
Speed ratings are out for Bob Conley- 183, 180, 171, 167, 164.
Boise was 175, 174, 174, 171, 167 last weekend.
CDA has a really, really good resume right now. This win was huge. They put 6 in front of Wil Ihmels. Rocky put 3 at Firman. CDA’s 3, 4, 5, and 6 finished 34, 24, 15 and 10 seconds ahead of him. Rocky’s 2 and 3 finished 8 and 3 seconds ahead of him. They are very good and I wouldn’t assume that any Idaho team is even close to being on par with them at this point in time.
I don't think Boise is quite good enough to be in this conversation given their losses to RM, Star Valley, and others.
Boise also has a win against Star Valley and a big invitational win out of state. The reality is that neither Rocky or Boise quite have the resume at the moment. Either one could create that, but they need to have good showings the rest of the season.
Speed ratings are out for Bob Conley- 183, 180, 171, 167, 164.
Boise was 175, 174, 174, 171, 167 last weekend.
CDA has a really, really good resume right now. This win was huge. They put 6 in front of Wil Ihmels. Rocky put 3 at Firman. CDA’s 3, 4, 5, and 6 finished 34, 24, 15 and 10 seconds ahead of him. Rocky’s 2 and 3 finished 8 and 3 seconds ahead of him. They are very good and I wouldn’t assume that any Idaho team is even close to being on par with them at this point in time.
CDA speed ratings:
184, 182, 176, 173, 170, 168, 161. That’s 3 boys with 180+ marks this season, 6 with 170 plus. 5 have better seasonal bests than Rocky’s #3, 6 in front of their 4.
The speed ratings have Heemeyer’s 15:20 from Bob Conley getting beat by Lachlan Mays 15:19 at Hole in the wall (fast course at sea level). Big time run by CDA at Hole in the wall, but Rocky might be closer than people think with that Bob Conley run (remember it is at 4,700ft in Pocatello). No disrespect at all toward Lachlan May, but I believe Heemeyer is a different caliber runner at this point in their careers.
Heemeyer also has a couple much higher scores. When comparing lifetime best speed ratings, Heemeyer is in a class of his own, but CDA is much better overall than Rocky. The idea of speed ratings is that they adjust for courses and deliver a consistent score. As another poster stated when defending why Landon didn’t run as fast as Nathan Green, he started too fast and faded on that course and probably has a better mark in him.
Rocky beating CDA this year was really dependent on 1-2 unexpected guys in their big squad making huge leaps into the 175 speed rating range, IMO. It might still happen in a team that big, but it’s getting late in the season.
If Heemeyer hits a 190 speed rating and they get that 60 second spread that would put their 5 in at 170. That’s gotta have a shot against CDA.
Rocky’s potential
190-183-175-172-170
Dude, you’re a massive Rocky homer if you think they are going to do that. Go look at Samuel Jensen’s Strava. They’ve been running race pace stuff since the first week of official practice. It’s the reason they are all running basically the same speed ratings they were at Caldwell Twilight. Rocky has shown who they are. They are probably the 2nd place team in Idaho, maybe the third. They are really good. CDA is the best team in the NW. It’s okay to give them those props.
I see a ton of tempo and threshold stuff. I don’t see anymore race pace than any other program. Check Herrimans kids, they hit race pace 800s or 600s a ton, so that ain’t it boss.
CDA is legit! I know they are tough….but I think Rocky has the ability to mix it up. Would be awesome for multiple Idaho squads to make NXN if they both run well at NXR.
Rocky has a low stick, with a potential second really strong runner in Lucas (9:12 3200). Tuft is emerging nicely with a sub 16 at altitude in Pocatello. Jensen and their pack might be able to mix it up, the kid was on their 4x800 state title team and ran a 4:10 in the 1500m which is worth 4:28 in the 1600. Maybe Boise can mix it up too, I guess it’ll all play out.
I see a ton of tempo and threshold stuff. I don’t see anymore race pace than any other program. Check Herrimans kids, they hit race pace 800s or 600s a ton, so that ain’t it boss.
CDA is legit! I know they are tough….but I think Rocky has the ability to mix it up. Would be awesome for multiple Idaho squads to make NXN if they both run well at NXR.
Rocky has a low stick, with a potential second really strong runner in Lucas (9:12 3200). Tuft is emerging nicely with a sub 16 at altitude in Pocatello. Jensen and their pack might be able to mix it up, the kid was on their 4x800 state title team and ran a 4:10 in the 1500m which is worth 4:28 in the 1600. Maybe Boise can mix it up too, I guess it’ll all play out.
And CDA has 3 guys that will legit be competing for top 5 spots at state, and 3 more that could be too 10 on the right day. They aren’t hoping that their pack can mix it up. They’ve shown that they are the real deal.
What would be your individual top 10 prediction for the 5A boys right now?
It's definitely got to be one of the best years ever (Stadtlander, Heemeyer, Ringert, CDA's Top 3, Lucas, Boise's Top 3...that's already 10 and I'm probably missing a stud)