I said produce the thread with all of the ‘apologists spiel’ Astro was making up. But that concept was obviously too deep for you. Figures, you have basically one punch line here, and it goes like this: “Doping, doping, they’re all doping! See? See? Waahaahaa!”
Every Houlihan thread was full of apologists' spiel. You've clearly read none of them and indeed weren't even aware the threads existed. You have been living in a cave.
Have to agree, the Houlihan threads had at least one apologist: Rojo.
There isn’t anything suspicious about that progression. 55 seconds over 5 years? Also, when she ran the 10:04 she was probably 17 or 18 years old without many steeple contests under her belt. By the time she ran the 9:09 she was a pro and it was against other professionals. Her SC technique had to have been a lot better.
If anything, I may have thought her progression should have been better. Do you think it is suspicious?
Look on Valby’s instagram all the way back to 2016. She’s always been very skinny. Literally nothing to see here.
I disagree about the ‘always being skinny-skinny part. And I think it’s a very significant thing people are missing or misconstruing, by attributing it to drugs. Drugs aren’t necessary for most people to lose weight, if they want to. So if a very very good determined runner drops 30 pounds, the math says they can drop their time by 1min per mile. Valby was going thru the body weight transformation in high school. There’s video out there if you want to see what I’m talking about.
There isn’t anything suspicious about that progression. 55 seconds over 5 years? Also, when she ran the 10:04 she was probably 17 or 18 years old without many steeple contests under her belt. By the time she ran the 9:09 she was a pro and it was against other professionals. Her SC technique had to have been a lot better.
If anything, I may have thought her progression should have been better. Do you think it is suspicious?
Astro is the purported progression expert, I’m trying to get his opinion. She ran 16:22 5000 in 2022. She was only a pro for 2 months before dropping a 9:09.
You’re convinced Valby is doping based on her progression (“I know it when I see it”), but can’t offer any commentary on a different athlete’s progression? For someone who purportedly cares so much about drug use, you seem to care a lot more when it involves an athlete potentially beating the 20 year old girl you’ve been obsessed with for years. If Valby had an equivalent progression but was slower (and not a threat to Tuohy), you wouldn’t be posting at all.
Pseudo “doping truthers” like you and Armstronglivs are so obnoxious. You guys talk down to all the naïve apologists because you have it all figured out, but ultimately who you think is doping isn’t really based on anything beyond your own assumptions. Are you aware that not every doper is going to have Katir-esque jumps in performance? I don’t understand how you can accept that doping is basically ubiquitous, but then still act like you personally have any clue who is dirty and who is clean, especially at the highest levels of the NCAA and the pro scene. I really hope Tuohy wins xc nationals just to see you twist yourself into a pretzel trying to justify how she could beat such an obvious doper.
This really isn’t about either of these athletes, though. Like you, I don’t know if either is doping, but unlike you, I don’t pretend to know, nor do I care. I’m just tired of the hypocrisy when it comes to who is allowed to be accused of doping on these forums, and the arrogance of people like you who speak so confidently when you know so little.
Hmm yeah that is the golden question. the answer is effective screening, with the aim of preventing women who aren’t menstruating (when they would otherwise) from competing until they do again. I know this seems drastic, but it should be the norm. the only screening you have to do before each academic year for this is ticking a “do you have a regular period” box yes or no… very easy to just lie because it’s kind of uncomfortable to tick ‘no’ anyways! also I know you were joking, but could schools actually use bf% as a screening tool if they’re collecting weight results anyways? not a calliper test cause that’s potentially traumatising, but one of the electromagnetic pulse ones where you step on the scales barefoot for a body fat reading.. could be a good monitoring tool that’s inexpensive, not in ya face, and highly useful.
Fine ideas but highly unrealistic. Too expensive and far too invasive.
And please note, when I say too expensive, I don't mean that they shouldn't spend the money but they never will because distance running produces zero revenue... they'd drop the sport before they had to spend that kind of money on every single person who runs at the D1, D2, & D3 level.
I have expressed my opinion thoroughly. But I am not playing 20 questions when someone demands that I express an opinion about another athlete, then after I do so, demand that I do the same thing with a different set of results. No thanks.
So not every doper has a Katir level jump? Ok. But more than enough do. You ask how can you be reasonably confident in an opinion, but helpfully answered the question yourself. If you see crazy jumps in performance and an athlete suddenly has the ability to run pro doping related times, you have strong grounds to raise suspicions.
On the topic at hand I expressed a qualified opinion, which is that if a race time conversion is actually accurate then that indicates a likely doping progression. The problem is that this is still an "if" and apparently even that is variable, and whatever other suspicions I may have, well founded or not, there may be less here than seemingly met the eye. So my opinion is simple: if the athlete has progressed in Katir/Houlihan terms to suddenly being able to run 14:51 after suddenly being able to run high 15:30s than high 15:20s then 15:20 itself in successive races, I think that is a strong indication of doping. If as it may turn out the 14:51 rating becomes 15:00 averaged out to 15:10 give or take, well that serious muddies the waters and it becomes a false alarm.
Look on Valby’s instagram all the way back to 2016. She’s always been very skinny. Literally nothing to see here.
She is much thinner than in high school, especially her sophomore thru senior year. Look at race pictures and videos. Does this mean anything sinister is going on? Not necessarily. She could have majorly increased her training and started restricting her diet ( which is not healthy at all and could have serious consequences). I was at many of her competitions in high school and was amazed how fast she was because her form was horrific and she didn't have the typical physic that is seen in the top high school runners. She has definitely worked on her form, which also could have a big effect on her performance. The increase in training, weight reduction, and form corrections could all contribute to the much faster times. However, I am also not naive that there are many athletes, even in college, that are willing to cheat to get faster.
It is not 20 questions. If looking at a progression could easily tell you if someone was doping you would just answer yes or no to my question. Instead you spend a bunch of time writing a multi paragraph response dodging the question.
I’ll take this as a default judgment that you indeed can’t easily tell if someone is doping based on their progression.
So basically you admit that the whole reason you think she’s doping is because of a non verified conversion to a 14:51 5k that she hasn’t even run yet. Great.
Proves how fallible your argument is. A 18:58 6k is 15:48 pace. You think she’s dropping a minute to a track with only a k less distance?
Also, you guys are failing to realize that the TAMU course is notoriously flat. Eric casters from tamu has run about 23:30 on that course the past two years. You wanna know his 5k and 10k track PRs? 13:54 and 29:54. Really not all that impressive in the grand scheme of things. Didn’t even get top 5 in the 5k or 10k at SEC outdoors last year.
you are looking way too far into one result and extrapolating from there which is completely unfair to any athlete.